gottolovethisweather

Judging by the latest satellite animation, I believe you can already see the developing surface low well off to the SW. What you will also notice is how the NH Jestream is steering the cloud shield on a ESE trajectory for now. Perhaps, this aid our chances of backedge snow and/or largely miss the rainband altogether. Won't be long until this is a NOWCASTING situation at this rate. http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html EDIT: I would say the surface feature itself is at the extreme Southwest edge of the conveyor belt of cloud and is situated several hundred miles due West of the Northwest part of Spain. Not a nice area for incoming depressions to come from in terms of precise forecasting I guess. I still suggest that this will be last minute job for determining any accurate forecast.

As copied from the SW & CSE thread. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Further to my posting from yesterday, I'm starting to feel even more confident that winter is coming back peeps. Check out the latest 6-15 dayer from the UKMO and bear in mind that this is the third medium ranger in a row to mention the word SNOW. As reproduced from the dedicated thread. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Feb 2013 to Thursday 14 Feb 2013: Tending to turn colder and rather unsettled across the UK throughout much of this period. There will be a mixture of sunny spells and blustery showers, which will turn increasingly wintry, though probably falling as rain or sleet in the south at first. There is the potential for some accumulations of snow in places exposed to the north and northwest. It will be windy across the UK, with severe gales possible in the northwest. The best of the sunshine will be towards the east and southeast of the UK. Generally rather cold, with overnight frost in inland shelter at first, becoming more widespread throughout next week. Towards the end of the period, there is a good deal of uncertainty, but perhaps becoming drier and less cold for a time. Updated: 1121 on Thu 31 Jan 2013 http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FWIW, I strongly believe that this will be upgraded over the coming days and will be corrected further South in time.

Further to my posting from yesterday, I'm starting to feel even more confident that winter is coming back peeps. Check out the latest 6-15 dayer from the UKMO and bear in mind that this is the third medium ranger in a row to mention the word SNOW. As reproduced from the dedicated thread. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UK Outlook for Tuesday 5 Feb 2013 to Thursday 14 Feb 2013: Tending to turn colder and rather unsettled across the UK throughout much of this period. There will be a mixture of sunny spells and blustery showers, which will turn increasingly wintry, though probably falling as rain or sleet in the south at first. There is the potential for some accumulations of snow in places exposed to the north and northwest. It will be windy across the UK, with severe gales possible in the northwest. The best of the sunshine will be towards the east and southeast of the UK. Generally rather cold, with overnight frost in inland shelter at first, becoming more widespread throughout next week. Towards the end of the period, there is a good deal of uncertainty, but perhaps becoming drier and less cold for a time. Updated: 1121 on Thu 31 Jan 2013 http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FWIW, I strongly believe that this will be upgraded over the coming days and will be corrected further South in time.

Yes fergieweather was suggesting there was a decreasing likelihood of snow as shown below but I'm not convinced just yet. http://forum.netweat...00#entry2579425 Personally, I have one eye on the longer-range aspects of our weather, as does AWD. http://forum.netweat...00#entry2579482 All to play for in February but best get tomorrow's troublesome beast out of the way first.

It seems not exactly. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75744-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-discussion-26th-january-2013/page__st__500#entry2579605 Hopefully there will be further updates before your move.

As for the weather Trevor and anybody else for that matter. The elongated squall like feature has now passed overhead in Newbury dropping something like 0.4mm so nothing noteworthy but the wind gusted up to 30mph or so.

UKMO data online currently suggests otherwise I believe, but elevation is key and I don't really see why you shouldn't see some sleet as an example. My patch, more especially the downs I suspect could catch a pasting. This is a tricky beast (not the Dartmoor beast I might add) for the UKMO right now as it has the makings of a deluge and/or significant snowfall event, especially at elevation. fergieweather stating similar thoughts from earlier I believe. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75744-south-west-central-southern-england-regional-discussion-26th-january-2013/page__st__480#entry2579182

Hello my long lost friends, well i hope you still are (my friends , I have actually met some of you ) I am still about, but largely I reside over in the CSE and SW thread and it is from there I want to provide a posting. Have a read guys n gals, JP et. al keep up the good work. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- On top of the wonderful analyses already provided, I wish to add my initial thoughts for the first third of February and perhaps beyond. As usual, I am basing my evidence on consecutive GFS 12z runs and where need be, additional tweaking from other sources from elsewhere. As ever, I urge newbies and/or unexperienced model output followers to please view things only from a global perspective. In general, miniscule yet undeveloped surface features often at the >t+96 timescale only serve to confuse your interpretation of the model output. This week, being a special case in point of this, as we have a very difficult forecasting situation at the <48 hour timeframe. In fact, let us look at where the NH Jetstream was projected to be by todays date (Wednesday 30th January, 12pm), some two days ago. As a consequence, what were the expected associated T850s. To be expected, it did develop into what we basically witnessed at the surface, a breezy type of day with the NH Jetstream roaring directly above our heads. However, when we move forward another 48 hours to Friday 1st February, 12pm), we were expected to see the following conditions, NH Jetstream and T850s profile wise. Compared to what is now expected on the hugely anticipated date of Friday 1st February, 12pm. Not much has changed from the GFS 12z expectations of two days ago, compared to what is now projected. If anything, today's 12z run has upped the anti with the depression. However, the split flow in the NH Jetstream is much more of a talking point because after Friday's event it offers the UK a complete reversal in terms of airflow from tropical maritime to polar maritime, albeit temporarily. So now what of what on Monday was the t+144 timescale, Sunday 3rd February, 12pm. Previous expectations against todays, having moved forward to t+96 timescale. Firstly in terms of NH Jetstream. Monday's 12z at t+144. Todays's 12z at t+96. How about Sunday's T850s profile wise. Then and now. What is apparent now is quite a divergence in output, from just the last couple of days. Two important points to note here IMHO are, that we MUST NOT DISMISS the relatively high chances of backedge snowfall (I guess at a 60% to 70% risk for my location) from the Friday event. This takes place between the previously shown chart above and the current one. What is not shown is the large range of t850s diving South from polar regions, in between the two charts, i.e come the very cold February 2nd as hinted at by AWD. My second point is such charts, on the face of look rather disappointing springlike synoptics, after a brief tempory excursion from the North, in fact by t+144 (Tuesday 5th February, 12pm) end with us heading towards an ever cooler wintry type of synoptic yet again. NH Jetstream diving South once again. Associated T850s profile at Tuesday 5th February, 12pm timeframe. And then some, come Thursday 7th February, 12pm, courtesy of NH Jetstream and T850s once again. It would be futile to look in detail, any further than next Thursday, however I firmly believe there will be a significant upgrade in the coming days, when speaking of further cold potential and wintry type synoptics. Three dates seemingly stand out for me as ones to watch at this range, they are Friday 1st February, Tuesday 5th February and yet further potential for yet deeper cold from the 10th February onwards. For the more immediate timeframe, regarding the appoach of the potentially dangerous (hopefully trending less so) development, I advise folk to follow posts containing NAE output, NMM output and/or MetO Fax chart updates. Stay safe and stay tuned to this regional for many more updates.

On top of the wonderful analyses already provided, I wish to add my initial thoughts for the first third of February and perhaps beyond. As usual, I am basing my evidence on consecutive GFS 12z runs and where need be, additional tweaking from other sources from elsewhere. As ever, I urge newbies and/or unexperienced model output followers to please view things only from a global perspective. In general, miniscule yet undeveloped surface features often at the >t+96 timescale only serve to confuse your interpretation of the model output. This week, being a special case in point of this, as we have a very difficult forecasting situation at the <48 hour timeframe. In fact, let us look at where the NH Jetstream was projected to be by todays date (Wednesday 30th January, 12pm), some two days ago. As a consequence, what were the expected associated T850s. To be expected, it did develop into what we basically witnessed at the surface, a breezy type of day with the NH Jetstream roaring directly above our heads. However, when we move forward another 48 hours to Friday 1st February, 12pm), we were expected to see the following conditions, NH Jetstream and T850s profile wise. Compared to what is now expected on the hugely anticipated date of Friday 1st February, 12pm. Not much has changed from the GFS 12z expectations of two days ago, compared to what is now projected. If anything, today's 12z run has upped the anti with the depression. However, the split flow in the NH Jetstream is much more of a talking point because after Friday's event it offers the UK a complete reversal in terms of airflow from tropical maritime to polar maritime, albeit temporarily. So now what of what on Monday was the t+144 timescale, Sunday 3rd February, 12pm. Previous expectations against todays, having moved forward to t+96 timescale. Firstly in terms of NH Jetstream. Monday's 12z at t+144. Todays's 12z at t+96. How about Sunday's T850s profile wise. Then and now. What is apparent now is quite a divergence in output, from just the last couple of days. Two important points to note here IMHO are, that we MUST NOT DISMISS the relatively high chances of backedge snowfall (I guess at a 60% to 70% risk for my location) from the Friday event. This takes place between the previously shown chart above and the current one. What is not shown is the large range of t850s diving South from polar regions, in between the two charts, i.e come the very cold February 2nd as hinted at by AWD. My second point is such charts, on the face of look rather disappointing springlike synoptics, after a brief tempory excursion from the North, in fact by t+144 (Tuesday 5th February, 12pm) end with us heading towards an ever cooler wintry type of synoptic yet again. NH Jetstream diving South once again. Associated T850s profile at Tuesday 5th February, 12pm timeframe. And then some, come Thursday 7th February, 12pm, courtesy of NH Jetstream and T850s once again. It would be futile to look in detail, any further than next Thursday, however I firmly believe there will be a significant upgrade in the coming days, when speaking of further cold potential and wintry type synoptics. Three dates seemingly stand out for me as ones to watch at this range, they are Friday 1st February, Tuesday 5th February and yet further potential for yet deeper cold from the 10th February onwards. For the more immediate timeframe, regarding the appoach of the potentially dangerous (hopefully trending less so) development, I advise folk to follow posts containing NAE output, NMM output and/or MetO Fax chart updates. Stay safe and stay tuned to this regional for many more updates.

Blimey o'reilly AWD, you are a star. I shall print off and have a good read. Many Thanks for your efforts once again, hopefully I will be able to give my thoughts with a summary before too long too.

Phew, I thought for a minute you were losing faith. Mother nature certainly knows how to chuck it all at us, perhaps February will bring a much needed drying out, courtesy initially of a High Pressure cell over the Western side of the UK and then with the flow backing around eventually to a Noreaster or Beasterly. Oops, what have I done now. AWD, are your thoughts for Mid February and more especially the period from 9th February still the key key timeframes in your opinion.

Almost over Bristol too. Not IMBY.

There may well be some back edge snow from Friday's event but of course I'm not speaking for Bristol here, more IMBY. Next week will see the cold gradually build up into a final fling for Winter, come the 10th February onwards for the bestest action, I guess. All from my interpretations from the latest trends and my teleportation tendencies, now for tonight's lotto numbers. Come on AWD, truth be known, you are still in the game for snow hunting like most of the rest of us.

Yuk, don't look at the radars guys. The only glimmer of excitement over the coming hours is that there are some sferics showing up SW of Ireland, but other than that, its RAIN RAIN RAIN. Bring back the cold, at least its not so moisture laden. In fact, things are now trending cooler at least. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=10day;sess= Bar tomorrow, only one double-digit Maximum in the offing over the next ten days, yes please.

As ever, it is also useful to hear of Gibby's thoughts across the 12z model suites and I copy below, the link to his post in the same technical discussion thread. http://forum.netweat...80#entry2578338 I find these particularly useful for making comparisons to see how Gibby believes where the general model output is trending, which is something you cannot simply do by browsing the MOD thread as an example. My best tip would be to compare like for like runs, i.e. 12z with 12z, but each to their own of course.

This is another very sound analysis of how things stand in my opinion, courtesy of TWS from the technical discussion thread. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A fair number of points of interest on the model outputs this evening: We have a vicious depression moving across southern parts on Friday and into Saturday (with considerable uncertainty over where it ends up). UKMO goes for a relatively shallow feature but ECMWF and more especially GFS have a very deep low with potentially damaging winds: GFS: http://cdn.nwstatic..../72/h500slp.png ECMWF: http://cdn.nwstatic..../ecm500.072.png UKMO: http://cdn.nwstatic....9/12/met.72.png Following on behind we have a typical 24-36 hour northerly "toppler" which will bring some wintry showers for the usual coastal areas, maybe a few getting inland in the east for a time due to the easterly component to the wind direction, but lying snow at low levels will probably be confined to north-east Scotland with a wintry mix further south. The models have been suggesting a chilly north-westerly around the 4th February for a few sets of runs now, and this would bring sunshine and snow showers to much of Scotland and Northern Ireland but with a wintry mix further south. Onto the 5th there is a pool of warmer air tied in with the depression core, which would turn showers back to rain and perhaps introduce a spell of cloudier and wet weather. However, as others have noted, this evening's model runs are making rather more of this blast and the ECMWF in particular gives us a significant northerly outbreak lasting through to the 8th February- so this potential cold snap/spell is worth keeping an eye on. blimey, must have been interesting around then too.

Looks pretty rough already, I presume its high tide and of course, we are around the time of a Full Moon right now as well.

Ah, but doesn't mean it will though. I would still stay tuned to this thread and the media forecasts for the time being. If your husband can avoid the prone areas then he should at least try to. Same goes for anybody else for that matter, at least us weather bods will already be warning others of the possibilities of a potentially dangerous development. One part of me is looking forward to the event whilst hoping everybody stays safe of course and yet another part of me has my eyes firmly set on the potential on the week thereafter, which is even more uncertain tbf.

Well if that came off, I would most probably simply experience a typically slightly blowy day. All from a IMBY perspective but the weather can NEVER please one and all at the same time. However, mother nature does appear to be throwing a few tantrums of late.

MOVING ON NOW PLEASE. I see AWD is posting, I'll be awaiting with bated breathe as to his latest thoughts. Perhaps I should go have a look at the latest GFS offerings myself.

And as if by magic, there is now some mention of the SNOW wording, okay it only refers to transient snow across the Northern hills but that is a trend I can see developing and moving South as time goes by.

YES. Probably too many bad jokes. Was it this post? http://forum.netweat...80#entry2576963

I agree with the mild wording, but I don't agree with the pleasant wording, nah not in mid-winter. 11.6c here in Costa del Newbury. Warmer than four days in May 2012. Warmest Maximum since 23rd December.

Ha ha, indeed as AWD was typing his analysis, I wasn't even aware of what the GFS 6z had dished out. Having alway stuck with the trends from the afternoon runs and not even followed anything bar one or two other posts in recent days, I find it astonishing how things can turnaround. What will the other runs serve up later today I wonder, especially given that the GFS at least, has additional balloon data. Then there's the rest of February to keep tabs on, don't go away folks, WINTER is far from over. Cold and dry or cold and unsettled are my two offerings at such a timescale. I await the the MetO further outlook with baited breathe over the coming days.