gottolovethisweather

I think a Costa del Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Hamphire and Isle of Wight regional thread could be a distinct possibility in future years of climate change. http://forum.netweat...00#entry2592992

Are you stuck on that same tune TwisterGirl. I'm sure I've heard that one a few times before. I feel your pain but the future is but unknown, so as always I won''t rule anything out. I am looking forward to viewing your photos of your fun in the sun come summertime.

Well said mull, furthermore they have a responsibility, rather like the Police force, to serve and protect the general public. Afterall, are they not a Governmental advisory body?

Is it incorrect then, I believe Monday hasn't arrived yet?

The highlighted section above is where the problem lies IMHO. From all walks of life, we as individuals believe we can second guess nature and predict weather by use of many different methodologies. The professionals take the flack (lest not forget we are at least 36 hrs away from said event) because their reputation. The media are never accountable for their miscontruance of weather events, irrespective of whether it's factual or not, come the time. We are in an internet age and as we are all connected, we demand instant gratification and time to tell each other, I told you so etc. etc. After my ramblings above, I supect there was an easier way to get my point across but then again, it matters not. I'll let you know how the professionals and amateur hobbyists got on, come next week.

For the record I don't see the forecast as having changed too much from that which was expected a couple of days ago. The timeframe from later on Sunday into Monday and beyond is the period to concentrate on with regard to any likelihood of snowfall. Unfortunately in the meanwhile one or two of us have gotten caught up in a little bit of hype generated from various sources. My post from Wednesday still largely applies. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75819-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-discussion-030213-12z/page__st__480#entry2589692 Iceberg's analysis earlier bears out the uncertainty and the view from the MetO is currently cautious, not surprising given the look of the Fax Charts at the t+48 toi t+72 timeframe. From what I can make out the initial surface feature isn't suggested to take the original path as was first shown but then again, how can we be certain it will take the projected path suggested now. For one thing, snow making dynamics will not be certain until the timescale reaches <t+6 hours. Yes, many people positioned on the extremities of the surface feature will be disappointed but I guess those in the prone areas will be jumping with joy. As its all in the future, I for one won't be getting drawn into a prediction before the feature has even developed. Furthermore, I am looking forward to the crisp, frosty and pleasant drier spell which may occur according to the ECM at least, come the latter part of next week. Very much all to play for and the models are simply predictions, please always remember that fact.

This comes courtesy of Gibby's analysis of the 0z model suites, whilst bearing in mind not all of these model output runs are the most reliable. Still all to play for, as we enter the middle week of February. In Summary this morning there is still considerable doubt over which areas are going to be most affected by a potentially wintry spell in the opening days of next week. There is definately going to be a spell of wet weather with heavy rain over Southern and Western Britain over Sunday while the North and East are at more risk of snowfall. This still looks like extending to other areas too over Sunday night and Monday but to what degree disruption is likely is hard to call still this morning. The cold wintry weather then slides away SE towards the middle of next week with a relaxing of conditions as a ridge moves SE to give a cold and frosty period. Later there seems a reasonable amount of agreement from GEM and GFS of a breakdown to less cold and rainier conditions at the end of next week while the Euros keep things rather more anticyclonic with frost and cold air much more reluctant to give way until the weekend at least. The tussle between the cold block to the NE and the milder Atlantic winds around an Azores High continues within the output this morning. EDIT: I have highlighted the main points in blue to which change may apply over the coming runs, be it negative or positive with regards to our chances of seeing snowfall

Whilst at the same time, the surface feature has yet to develop. It doesn't do so until at least late Saturday from memory. Not over much has changed bar a correction to our East I believe or am I reading things wrong.

Did you know you can get a lifetime ban from netweather for undertaking such irresponsible actions. However, on this occasion I will live and let live as that's probably the most accurate LRF I have am yet to see. Sell it to the newspapers right this minute. Read all about it, read all about it.

Its out there Mull, you just have to go looking for it. Oh to be in England, now that Spring is there.

I'd prefer Spring to come along at first if you don't mind. Come Spring, the season of change will move from one moment being Summer like and the next back to Winter, got to love it. Rabbits will be going along with their usual rabbit like behaviour, wildlife will be full on in love and hate for each other in equal doses. The birds will be singing and the sights and sounds of our countryside will be alive with birdsound. Then we can have our Summer heatwaves and occasional Thunderstorms.

Hi, I just wanted to reproduce one or two of the more sensible analyses in here for folks to bear in mind over the coming days. This from AWD regarding his analysis of today's 12z trend from the GFS. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Taken at face value, which is all we can do at this stage, as things will still carry on changing, Sunday is gaining support for a rain event during daylight hours, turning to snow as it clears south Sunday night. Monday and Tuesday though, the GFS is very interesting. It keeps the low close enough to the UK to give embedded troughs over us. With colder, drier air over us, these will fall as snow. Like I said though, detail with regards to both Sunday and next week will still change. Just highlighting that if indeed it is rain Sunday, there is a growing trend for further trough activity into the new working week. Also of note was this very special posting from fergieweather. http://forum.netweat...60#entry2591243 Finally, if I may add my post from just over 24 hours or so ago, based on the analysis of yesterday's 12z looking at a slightly longer timeframe. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Hello fellow CSE and SW'ers. Five days can be a long time in Meteorology, so from my post on the 1st February to now, are we any further forward to knowing what's in store for the rest of this month. On my previous posting it was suggested that FI was around the 7th to 8th February timeframe which gave us at best, approximately 6 to 7 days of predictability in terms of a forecast. What was the reality I wonder? If you recall, here were my key dates in my forecast. Firstly for Dorset, having edited the summary accodingly. Key timeframes were suggested as 3rd February for a low impact RAIN event, with the period from the 5th February into 6th February looking a decent shout for a SNOWIER INTERLUDE. Even further out, say the 13th February onwards, it hints at a good deal wetter scenario than the preceding ten days or so. Basically it was a bust, even under a short-term scenario and furthermore the same was said of the predictions for Berkshire which were as follows. The trend for Berkshire showed the 4th February as a low impact RAIN event, with the slim probability of backedge snowfall and then the 8th February looking a reasonable shout for a SNOWIER INTERLUDE. Intriguingly you could possibly rescue the 8th February from the above prediction but we are really clutching at straws I guess. Anyhow, let's move on and have a look at the future. Again, I will attempt a forecast based on some analysis of the GEFS ensembles suite. I will once again be using the 12z suite in isolation. Here is how the GEFS 12z ensembles saw things developing in terms of precipitation for Berkshire and Dorset some five days ago. On to today, how does the GEFS 12z ensembles view things in terms of developing precipitation for Berkshire and Dorset. To this I will also add Cornwall. Please follow the MEAN (red line) in order to see the overall trend expected and in turn to help pick out specific dates over the given timeframe. Where the CONTROL (blue line) consistently differs from the MEAN you can regard such timeframes as currently unreliable, i.e. Fantasy Island. What can we establish from the above? The trend deciphered from the above would indicate an unsettled period upcoming for all. The wettest part of our region likely to be the furthest SW locations within the UK. As ever, there will be drier interludes, to which I will allude to later. I will now look into any discernable trends coming from the Upper Air profiles. Once again looking back at Berkshire, Dorset and instead of Cornwall, I am using Berlin as an example. Firstly the situation expected some five days ago. Berkshire, Dorset and Berlin T850s And as of today, to which I can add Cornwall T850s to the mix. Please follow the MEAN (red line) in order to see the overall trend expected and in turn to help pick out specific dates over the given timeframe. Where the CONTROL (blue line) consistently differs from the MEAN you can regard such timeframes as currently unreliable, i.e. Fantasy Island. What you can you decipher from this is a hint as to whether the precipitation will be wintry in nature and more especially, SNOW producing. From the above, I would suggest the period from the 8th February to the 14th February as being a watching episode at this range. Cornwall should expect many showery interludes during the earlier part of the above timeframe. The downside for coldies being the ensembles suggest a largely too warm profile (bar significant elevation) for now. As for Berkshire and Dorset, things don't look as wet as first suggested and when the precipitation spikes are shown, the precipition signal in terms of anything wintry will be marginal at first. However, the interest grows as we enter the timeframe 11th February to the 14th February and probably beyond. The reason Berlin T850s were included was to look for any developing Easterly signal. At this range and the timescale concerned is beyond FI, I do believe there are reasonably strong signs of a continental type flow developing from the 14th February onwards and possibly earlier by a day or so. Of course, this will need to push further Westwards in time for this region to benefit from such an event, but there is hope that such a thing could occur IMHO. Finally we will see if there are any signs of a drying out taking place in the longer-term by looking at the Air Pressure trend shown, firstly from five days ago Berkshire and Dorset Air Pressure, to which I will add Reyjavic (Iceland) and Oslo (Norway) And as of today for Berkshire, Dorset, Cornwall and also using further afield locations as Reyjavic (Iceland) and Oslo (Norway). Having said what I stated earlier, you can pretty much write off a High Pressure related scenario taking place until at least 14th February. The trend is for Cornwall to be the wettest of the selected counties with 8th, 10th, 11th, 13th and 14th February looking likely to suffer showery/frontal type precipitation events. Of particular interest to us coldies, the period from the 8th to the 10th February suggest high levels of marginality when it comes to predicting SNOW at the surface. However, from the 11th February onwards, more especially the 12th through to the 14th February are dates to keep in mind for a much higher likelihood of SNOW in almost any of the aforementioned counties of England. The reason for using Reyjavic (Iceland) and Oslo (Norway) ensembles was to identify as possible trend for a Pressure build in that region, North of the British Isles. At the moment, these appear to favour a Scandinavian blocking type scenario come Mid February. If this does come off, AWD will be very pleased - see below for his comment as of the 31st January. cold mid February from the east/north east/north still looking good, still my long range punt. How cold and if it will be accompanied on snowfall remains to be seen. My guess at the stage is not mega cold but easily cold enough for snow, which we will see at some point being closer to the Euro trough. My best bet, largely in line with AWD's initial thoughts is for a Scandinavian blocking to take hold from around the 12th February. This subsequently linking up or losing its identity in favour of a more general Greenland type blocking, come the last ten days or so of February. Whilst saying all the above, it has to be stressed that there is very little cross-model suite agreement at less than t+96 right now, which firmly places Fantasy Island at no later than the 10th February. I hope the above is of use and folks, keep tuned for many more updates from the usual suspects in the coming days. Still a whole lot to play for with this winter, bar the usual locations which the residents will know about which will most likely experience a unforecasted heatwave. Nice pups.

Monday is the day to watch, maybe later on Sunday should the rain turn to snow by late evening.

Courtesy of Nick F from the SE and East Anglia thread, but this should very much be taken on board. As I mentioned in MOD, the track of the low won't be nailed yet as it doesn't even form until Sunday morning. May not be able to firm up on its track until Saturday morning. Fingers crossed tonight's ECM and faxes are on the money. Nevertheless as the time ticks slowly towards the event, we will know more. It has be a positive in itslef that its all over the media at least alongside the usual horse onions meat news. A tip for you all, don't ever say you're hungry in your local supermarket from now on. Oh I'm starving, I could truly eat a horse. I suppose it's one way for the government to get us to cut down on our meat consumption and eat more sustainbly.

I wonder if there will be a surprise few snowflakes overnight on top of that reported earlier by those at elevation. There is a fair ole mass of precipitation heading into Wales right now, perhaps it can make it to the Bristol area in the coming hours and perhaps parts of Somerset. Currently in Newbury, it's 1.7c AT, 1.0c DP, 4mph NNW and a 1016.9mb rising slowly Barometer. Ok, slightly clutching at straws but you simply cannot say no.

Definitely not getting any lasagnes from them or Aldi, that's for sure. Neigh chance of that, but there's always a chance of SNOW for quite a bit of this region next week, judging by the current output, although I didn't look at the poo 18z though.

Hi AWD, any chance you could post up an ECM ensembles chart if possible, although I know they are not that easy to come by. The GFS12z looked good yesterday too, but I think you knew that. I think a cold cold February is on the cards, if nothing else.

I don't quite understand the obsession with the M4 myself but I have seen the Berkshire/Wiltshire (Wessex downs) make a diferrence in the past. 10 inches up on the downs and nothing just a few miles South with me in Newbury, but that's just the way things go sometimes. For the record, I just had to hide one or two posts in here so I would grateful if we could get back to discussing the weather without too much intended/unattended innuendo.

Thank you young man, let us hope it ends up to something similar to my posting and in line with what fergieweather is currently suggesting. If it did, then there wouldn't be too many unhappy faces in here.

Bugger your house, I want snow on RG14 please. Father wears his Sunday best Mother's tired she needs a rest From playing in the snow maybe? I'll give us all a chance come Monday if things work out that way.

Likewise I googled (any other search engine will do ) dancing snow angels but I should have kept the filter on.

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

He's never happy. but are you AJ. My glass is nearly always "half full", in fact I think I need a top-up of Magners original Irish cider right now. Of course, any other brand will do.

To be fair, I have little faith in the official forecasts on the odd occasion too. Please remember we are dealing with something undeveloped at t+96 hours or so which is another reason to keep informed of the progress being made. Furthermore, each and everyone of us knows their own location climatic traits better than any forecaster will ever do. The professional forecasters are often looking at things from a global perspective right down to nearly t+0 and that's way the difficulty lies for location specific forecasts.