gottolovethisweather

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75962-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-discussion-180213-20z/page__st__600#entry2626116

Here's my answer it seems, courtesy of the MetO, so I got there in the end. Tonight: Thickening cloud and patchy rain arriving in the southwest will spread erratically north and east overnight.

Hi all, I've been laid low for many a day and haven't kept up to date with much of the expected weather action, can somebody kindly answer a question I posted on the sleepy SW forum. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Hello all. I guess I need to read back a few posts or attempt to enter the MOD thread for an update but can somebody inform me where the breakdown is coming in from? Is the attack coming up from the South, the South-west, West or North-west even? According to Satellite imagery it almost looks like a plume of cloud from Spain and France but I guess I'm dreaming.

Hello all. I guess I need to read back a few posts or attempt to enter the MOD thread for an update but can somebody inform me where the breakdown is coming in from? Is the attack coming up from the South, the South-west, West or North-west even? According to Satellite imagery it almost looks like a plume of cloud from Spain and France but I guess I'm dreaming.

Dry for now suits me but I do wish the sunshine element could be improved and then we might get some penetrating Frosts by night too. I can't remember what that MCS phenomenon is. I seem to recall witnessing one lastly around 2006 in this neck of the woods. MCS's are currently rarer than a win on the lottery but I live in hope on both counts.

I'd just like to applaud you AWD for the forecasting element of your analysis there, alongside the hopecasting element too. I think I know which part of the above is more likely than the other. Red or Blue anyone?

After a quick glance at the early stages of the latest GFS run, it seems to be a case of “as you were†for another 24 hours or so, then a continual drying out process as HP gradually becomes more dominant as the working week progresses. The HP cell slowly attempts to re-orientate itself slightly north and westwards, resulting in a slight rise in Air Temperatures too. Just how much cloud we all have to endure is another story however.

I'm not so sure.

Whilst this may not be to everyone's liking, I will accept the following forecast as for the most part, it continues the same general theme of dry but chilly weather, alongside the potential for some wintriness at times. UK Outlook for Thursday 28 Feb 2013 to Saturday 9 Mar 2013: Much of early March is likely to see below average temperatures, with a greater-than-average incidence of frost. Nearer average temperatures should see out February however, with rain over northwestern Scotland weakening markedly as it moves south towards next weekend. Brighter, colder and more showery conditions should follow from the north, with these showers wintry over hills. Next weekend should start mainly dry but rather cold despite sunny spells, however there is an increasing likelihood of more unsettled and breezier conditions developing in the north later, with some snow possible. These cloudier conditions with outbreaks of rain, sleet and hill snow may then spread south into the new working week. Colder-than-average conditions look to remain dominant towards the end of the period, although some lengthy dry periods are also likely.

Once again it is snowing lightly in Newbury. Currently the AT is 1.0c after a Maximum of 2.0c, -3.9c DP and 5mph 10min avg NE, steady Barometer trend at 1019.4mb

On the netweather front page. Current Low Temps Bristol / Lulsgate 0°C London / Gatwick Airport 0°C Luton Airport 0°C Biggin Hill 0°C Wattisham 0°C Leeds And Bradford 0°C Spadeadam 0°C Norwich Weather Centre 0°C Connaught 0°C Cranfield 1°C Lydd Airport 1°C London City Airport 1°C Farnborough 1°C

A snow day is a snow day is a snow day. For Cornwall and more especially for the Lizard, you have got to be pleased with just few flakes on the breeze. I believe you have achieved at least two snow days now. have you not? Still plenty of time for a good deal more yet to come.

Indeed AWD and I guess, also the dry air causing additional evaporation to which I referred earlier.

Moments later, it is SNOWING here in Newbury, very little if nothing showing on the radar. An intriguing day.

Re: the earlier radar grab. Bad news, seems the air is so dry currently that the precipitation is evaporating as it falls from the sky, resulting in just a few snowflakes reaching the ground. Nevertheless, for us snow seekers there is still HOPE, especially when Cornwall is said to getting in on the act.

Well I can claim another snow day at least, can see a snowflake or two from overnight settled on the dustbin. Quite possible that a few of us will be getting a dusting over the coming hours but we will have to see how the organised the band of precipitation gets.

Only 68 users in here then at nearly midnight on a Thursday, must be a chance of snow then. I predict that there will be a few snowflakes over the next couple of days somewhere around Peterborough and Newbury and maybe in between. Be careful if you're braving the elements out there and please keep well wrapped up.

I haven't looked into the upcoming synoptics of late and as to add to AWDs analysis, I will simply reproduce Gibby's summary of the 12z output from the in depth discussion thread in here for your perusal. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Good evening. Here is the report of tonight's 12z output from GFS, UKMO and ECM for today Thursday February 21st 2013. All models show a settled spell of weather continuing over the UK for some considerable time as High pressure persists to the North or NE of the UK. A cold and raw East wind will continue to blow across the South and West of the UK over the following two to three days. A lot of low Stratocumulus cloud will be trapped under the cold dry air over the UK giving snow grains or light snow showers at times in exposure to the NE, like Eastern Coasts and hills though even here only small amounts are expected. The first few days of next week sees little change in the overall pattern though the biting NE wind will decrease in the South by Monday and the coldest conditions will temper over the UK the further we progress towards midweek. GFS then shows High pressure slowly weakening over the UK next week but the weather stays fine and dry for many with some sunshine by day and frosty nights. Eventually pressure falls from the North with unsettled weather gradually developing first in the North and more generally later as Low pressure develops over the UK with rain and showers for all in much increased and moister winds. Though milder than currently some hill snow is likely in the North and over the hills. The run ends with rather chilly and unsettled conditions continuing as Low pressure spirals around the West of the UK with rain and strong winds at times. The GFS Ensembles tonight show the current cold uppers lasting for two or three more days before a steep if temporary rise early next week takes hold. The rest of the run shows a further colder dip in 10 days or so with the usual spaghetti mixture at the end. Rainfall amounts will increase towards the end of the run. The Jet Stream continues to flow in two arms, one well to the North of the UK and one well to the South. A temporary link is made from the Southern arm to the Northern arm towards the middle of next week before the pattern reverts to a similar shape to that currently. UKMO for the middle of next week shows a large High pressure anchored close to Eastern Scotland and NE England with a much slacker NE flow over the South by then. All areas will remain on the cold side, especially at night as further sharp frosts are to be expected but with less wind and somewhat more sunshine possible daytime's should gradually feel less cold, especially in the South. ECM shows High pressure over Northern Britain too at the middle of next week before it loses it's identity leaving slack winds over the UK with fine and dry weather continuing with variable cloud cover. Frosts at night would still be commonplace and daytime's too could still be on the cold side of average though less cold than currently. Later in it's run Low pressure is centred near the Azores and High pressure over Canada with Low pressure over the Norwegian Sea. An attempted Northerly does largely fail though there is sufficient instability set up over the UK for some rainfall to develop towards the end of the run and with rather cold conditions still likely some snow could fall over higher ground. In Summary the weather looks like remaining High pressure influenced over the coming week or so with any changes to the overall pattern not expected until after that point. That means very cold and frosty weather through the next 4-5 days with a lot of cloud and some small snowfalls possible in the East. With time as the High both slips further South and loses it's strength the coldest temperatures will be tempered as the cold air mixes out with milder uppers in the circulation of the High. Nevertheless it still looks more likely to stay on the cold side of average for many beyond next week with slack winds and large amounts of cloud together with the chance of rain and hill snow suppressing temperatures rather than the usual milder Atlantic winds or sunshine.

Indeed an Easterly flow in February is truly unbeatable when it comes to its brutal cold feel. I also am very happy for it to remain for a few days as the drying process will be greatly aided by a stonger breeze. It may well confuse one or two of the early plants and other critters but they will bounce back. It will also hopefully produce a few snowflakes for a fair few of us and kill off the last few pests. Currently -0.1c AT after a Max of 2.3c, -4.7c DP, -1.6c windchill, 3mph 10min avg ENE wind.

-1.8c AT, -4.1c DP, -1.8c windchill with 10min avg windspeed of 1mph ESE Partially cloudy skies, might snow soon?

Agreed and with nearly 11 hours of daylight soon to hit us, it is pointless looking for settled snowfall for most. Cornwall will almost certainly be a region now that is the first in our region to reach double-digits on many a day from early March onwards. The UK climate does whatever it wants to anyway so we are just expressing our wishes and the reality will no doubt be much crueller. What a cracking afternoon we ended up having in Newbury, simply beautiful.

It’s still winter so I want winter weather. To me at least, that seems normal. Should we get an early heatwave I probably wouldn't begrudge one but I wouldn't like to see the damage inflicted on nature and more importantly agriculture because of it. Nature faces enough problems from our extremely variable climate so I guess because of this knowledge, I want things to be at least seasonal. From the spring Equinox onwards, I will indeed be wishing for spring to arrive in earnest. Currently sunny (yes!) cool at 4.8c AT and a 0.9c DP. I hope the frosts return tonight and for a few weeks yet.

Not the type of oncoming vehicle you would expect to see either.

Yes Mapantz, I don't read much into the Davis produced forecasts normally, but it did make me raise an eyebrow. The wind issue you currently have must be down to last night's kebab and associated alcohol intake, I guess.

Has my weather station lost the plot? It has a rapidly falling Barometer trend and is suggesting a warming up with precipiation within the next 12 to 24 hours and windy. Have I moved from CSE England overnight? There is no change imminent, is there? Are people losing the plot in the netweather forums with all this silly talk about Spring? A spring day to me is temps in the mid to high teens, today maxed out at 8.1c. Not sure of the fascination of near average Temps and calling it spring like. Next we will all be wanting winter in summer. Anybody got some inkling as to my dilemmas.