gottolovethisweather

Thanks for your silly post too. Come back if you get some worthwhile reports please.

Good news, my curtains are drawn so I haven't looked. You can those flakes to the few which fell from earlier today.

Now that it is dark outside, all we can do is the following in attempting to answer the questions the next 24 hours bring. Follow the latest model output but ignore the locational specifics. Watch the radar and satellite sequences with drink in hand. Digest and where needed, reply to other folk's weather reports from many a location. Chill and take things easy if things don't seem to going as expected.

It is a developing situation and we are only into the very early stages of the current warning period which started at 7pm and lasts throughout tomorrow.

The Amber warning was issued at around 11am this morning in preparation of what MAY lie ahead. The warning period itself only started at 7pm tonight and includes the whole of tomorrow. They may change it but so far, nothing has changed in the forecast and the far Southern coastal region remains in the firing line.

I believe showery outbreaks are likely but nothing too much expected at this stage. A bitter day it will be though, most probably an ICE DAY in the offing.

He's a nice man really and you are always welcome to chat to me and the rest of us as long as you share your reports. As per the TV forecast I saw earlier today, you may be in the sweetspot, more especially late tomorrow into Tuesday. I can't see your fingers even getting luke warm for a few days.

Hi Chris, my snowflakes were rather fleeting snaps of precipitation in Newbury and were courtsey of the flow from further Northeast. I don't believe anything made it up from the Southwest on this occasion.

If nothing else, perhaps we could organise a trek to Dartmoor in the coming days. Not often that SNOW remains in the forecast for such a long time and a windchill of -13c engulfs parts of the SW. http://www.netweathe...;sess=#forecast - Monday http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=uk7dayx7;page=3;ct=8374~Dartmoor;sess=#forecast - Tuesday Whatever comes of this current setup, I maintain that many will see at least some snow as a few already have. Aside from that, the bitterness of the air will feel exceptional for the vulknerbale and frail and it is for them, that we should show some consideration too. Hence the current level 3 alert from the MetO, one away from the top alert level. http://www.metoffice...-weather-alert/

Northern France will be the place to be I guess, however anything is still possible and I am going to be watching the radars and reading reports all night at this rate.

Indeed AWD, for some the windchill over the coming 36 hours will truly be something else. This cold spell is certainly nailed on for at least the following week. How dry it will end up or whether there are a few convective showers popping up here n there would be my next question.

In fact to back up my thoughts above, this comes courtesy of the MetO regional warning. There remains uncertainty about how far north the snow will spread, along with the extent of snow showers in the east. Certainly no point in overanalysing the current media forecasts as they will be ever on the catch up with location reports from the like of us folk. I would imagine they will be watching the satellite imagery and radar like hawks from here on in.

In spite of people clinging onto the MetO or BBC might suggest, this is still far from a done deal, so I am keeping the faith all the way from Newbury in CSE. On that point, please would you so kind as to update your profile to reflect your location, haywood. Thankyou kindly.

Another plausible option would be as follows and to whisper sweet nothings in the French folks ears. http://www.dailymail...-francaise.html

Come on guys n gals, stop slipping, only 24 posts in 24 minutes. And all of that before Northern France nicks the best of the action.

I am the original gangster don't you know. I have been virus ridden for a couple of weeks now and I don't have the energy to go into anything more than a paragraph at a time. I'm reserving my energy for a session of snow-watching or at least reading about other folk's blizzards.

Holy poo, now down to 1.7c AT with a DP of -0.1c and a windchill -1.6c. Considering I'm not within 60 miles of the warning area, I am liking the trend. Welcome aboard, please keep posting your reports and no more snooping from here on in.

AJs comments from the last thread are also well worth heeding too IMHO, more espcially the final sentence. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- out to T36 (Midnight monday night) and LP is shallower and further east, meaning, less ppn for the SW, more for the SE...in fact should 12z GFS verify then Sussex/Kent would do rather well from this......still, I'm probably guilty of a little over analyzing.....At this time scale, nowcasting and radar watching is the name of the game, model output IMHO is 3rd most relevant tool

My view of this developing situation remains as before, recopied from the previous thread below. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 1.9c now. The Temperature trend is quite astonishing for March 10th and with London forecast an ICE DAY tomorrow, the potential for SNOW is there for all of us. I still maintain that many of us will see a few snowflakes but other than that I suspect the immediate coastline and offshore islands will be the places for anything significant. Nevertheless, I am enjoying the thrill of the chase and I sincerely hope tomorrow (MARCH 11TH ) brings at least a few more flurries and a very late in the season ICE DAY.

Whilst it is a rather lazy copout, I simply want to repost AWDs latest analysis in here for those who need to see a summary of the output and where we should be heading in the coming 24 to 48 hours. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The 12z NAE; GFS; And UKMO; All broadly similiar now in keeping the main thrust of PPN in the channel and over northern France. The Channel Islands could do pretty well out of this, along with the Isle of Wight and the extreme south coast, say Southampton/Portsmouth area, but move inland from the south coast and your chances quickly decrease. The 06z GFS was always on its own with its northward extent, and thus needed further support from the 12z models. We still have the NMM and ECM to go. Otherwise its just a case of hoping for a model boob up and developments differing on radar. Still game on for the extreme south coast and Channel Islands however. Good luck to those down there.

I think you're find it can. I said as much yesterday here and I see no reason to change my immediate thoughts. I believe the final third of Match however will bring about an abrupt change in proceedings with plenty of potential of convective madness.

1.9c now. The Temperature trend is quite astonishing for March 10th and with London forecast an ICE DAY tomorrow, the potential for SNOW is there for all of us. I still maintain that many of us will see a few snowflakes but other than that I suspect the immediate coastline and offshore islands will be the places for anything significant. Nevertheless, I am enjoying the thrill of the chase and I sincerely hope tomorrow (MARCH 11TH ) brings at least a few more flurries and a very late in the season ICE DAY.

I would expect them to change, only if there is a change in the track of the developing low. The appropropriate area for a warning of any significance is for the regions as mentioned in AWDs post above I would guess.

Many thanks for the replies on the twitter scale, let us hope when the impending blizzard/ slight snizzle hits, people post a few 10 out of 10s.