gottolovethisweather

Well put AJ, the model outputs are simply projections, albeit they may be more accurate now as we are entering the timescale of uncertaincy. As this is a developing scenario and is a difficult situation even for the MetO Chief forecaster, I think we all need to stand by our radars and satellite imagery as time moves on.

Not being a twitterer (twitter user) can somebody explain what the ratings out of 10 represent. For example, on the NW social radar there are various reports of #uksnow with varying degrees of marks /10.

Temperatures dropping away all the time. Now 2.5c with a DP of 0.6c and there's been a few snowflakes in amongst some drizzly bits on occasion.

Welcome aboard and please keep the reports coming.

Not sure about that PB as I hadn't been looking at the Thunderstorm aspect of things but I can confirm report a SNOW day in Newbury. Whilst only the odd flake was seen blowing on the wind, it is good to join in the fun.

Keep the reports coming guys. Temperature here in Newbury, which is well out of the current warning area has now dropped to 3.4c from a high of 4.1c at 1212GMT. The current DP is 1c and the wind is blowing generally from the ENE and at a 10 min average of 5mph. The radar down over parts of Devon, Dorset and areas of Somerset is looking good for some wintriness in the coming hours. From memory, I believe that is not the main band either. Interesting times ahead with a definite need to wrap up warmly and to look after the vulnerable in the coming days. Ever changing situation Mulls, I wouldn't take notice of such specifics just yet. However, I would advise a watch on lamp-posts (come darkness), radars, satellites and Temperature falls.

89 users on here are expecting something good so let us hope this one does not disappoint. You never know if we all keep our expectations to a minimum then we may end up with maximum potential, which at this stage is a fairly widespread covering for areas Southwest of CSE England. It is certainly encouraging to see the RED warning for Jersey, which to me show the uncertainty of the depression's track and the fear on behalf of the MetO of potentially getting things wrong. Can anybody point me to a link showing this warning, the previous one for the Southwest remains. For information, according to weatheronline, the wind is also starting to ramp up.

Just to counter some of the concern (if there truly is any?) or overhyping of the potential in here, the forecast from the professionals is currently for a widespread small covering by morning of 2-4cm, I imagine that would not inconvenience travel whatsoever. A rare event yes, but it is pretty much forecast to be just a typical winter storm, at this stage. Yes, the potential is there for something more threatening to occur but even then, the upper risk level is currently for a fall of only 5-10cm. I am not attempting to pee on people's excitement here because I am lucky forward to receiving SNOW as much as any snow lover. I copy below the current MetO warning for today, for the Southwest region. Accumulations of 2-4 cm of snow could occur quite widely over southern counties, with a risk of 5-10 cm for parts of southwest England. The public are advised to be aware of the risk of disruption to travel. More snow is forecast for tomorrow as well and I believe the main talking point will be the wind and blowing snow, causing a feel of extreme cold.

On just the odd occasion, these threads can go astray, although thankfully these are rare events, however tonight is reminiscent of the following event, captured on video. Take note, this situation may well develop near you over the coming 24 to 36 hours should the fun NOT materialise. *fun* being used as a broadly loose term for those wanting a final wintry fling before the season is over.

AJ has now dealt with the reference in the original posting, so as he rightly suggests, let us now move on.

Righty ho, I have just hidden three posts and will hide more if need be. Those who have posted them should think again as to whether they are actually adding anything of value to others who are simply catching up with what are the latest weather prospects. Discussion of other posters is not really what I and I am sure, many others would wish to read at this time of day. Especially if you consider the potentially fascinating weather situation developing over the coming hours.

Talking of chilling, there will be SOME wind-chill over the coming days, if nothing else. I still expect some SNOW for quite a bit of this region, my gut feeling suggests that most of the settled stuff will be at elevation. Those of you hoping that should we/you not receive SNOW in your location and would simply like some warmth. I cannot see anything resembling meteorological spring warmth, bar down over the Costa del Southsea area of the South Coast, for the entire forthcoming week. Obviously, wherever this first batch of precipitation ends up, in the end, nature will do what it wishes. Currently that means returning to a rather cruel phase for those whom dislike the cold.

A truly wonderfully detailed analysis AWD. Many Thanks for your input.

Hi, this is Mother Nature speaking. I DON'T CARE WHAT YOU WANT. Besides, please stop polluting my environment with your gas-guzzling vehicles of doom. *Chances of SNOW on Daisy's house - 0.1% (but even that's an outside chance)

Who's up for a bit of CAMPING this weekend then. Meanwhile the view from AJs local will be looking just like this.

I have reproduced Gibby's summary of the 12z output as I would say this is the forecast to roll with right now. I have highlighted a couple of sections which I think are well worth heeding. In Summary it looks like next week is going to be cold and potentially wintry at times. I do not share the thoughts of many in the amounts of snowfall expected though. Through late Sunday and into Monday when a covering of snow is likely in the extreme South and prior to that in parts of East and SE England on Sunday it's the marked windchill that dominates my headlines over Monday and Tuesday with a bitter NE wind and cloudy skies with occasional snow grains or light snow flurries. Thereafter winds back North and decrease and the risk of snow is then directed to be from showers midweek and these look like being fairly scattered and as is always the case quite a few places will miss them while staying bright by day but very frosty at night. Low pressure then looks to develop and deepen close to NW Britain late in the week with a gradual ingress of milder SW Atlantic winds gradually taking control with rain or showers preceded by a spell of snow in the North and East and followed by sunshine and showers which may still fall as snow on the hills of the North. The original full analysis is provided via the following link. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76069-spring-model-discussion-18z-6313-onwards/page__st__540#entry2629489

In an attempt to answer Mulls question re: ground temperatures, I copy believe the current forecast Temperatures as suggested by the GFS 12z output for Sunday and Monday. The location used in my example is a village, a few miles to his Northwest - Midsomer Norton. To me, it does suggest the ground Temperatures have recovered somewhat but March SNOW is still being forecast with an outside probability of brief periods of accumulation in prone locations. Firstly Sunday and then Monday. Gardening Forecast for Midsomer Norton Sun 10/03 00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 Max Temp 7.4°C 2.8°C 3°C 3.2°C 4.6°C 4.8°C 4.8°C 1.4°C Min Temp 2.8°C 1.4°C 1.4°C 2.4°C 2.4°C 4°C 1.5°C 0°C Ground Temp 2.4°C 1.3°C 2.2°C 3.4°C 5.1°C 3.9°C 0.9°C -0.1°C Soil Moisture to -10cm 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% Soil Temp to -10cm 7.1°c 6°c 5.2°c 4.8°c 4.7°c 4.8°c 4.5°c 4°c Soil Temp -40 to -100cm 6.5°c 6.5°c 6.5°c 6.5°c 6.5°c 6.5°c 6.5°c 6.5°c Evaporation Rate 0 mm 0 mm 0 mm 0.125 mm 0.25 mm 0.25 mm 0.25 mm 0.125 mm ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Gardening Forecast for Midsomer Norton Mon 11/03 00:00 03:00 06:00 09:00 12:00 15:00 18:00 21:00 Max Temp 1.4°C -0.8°C -0.8°C -1.7°C -0.9°C -0.3°C -0.3°C -2.4°C Min Temp -0.8°C -1.4°C -2.3°C -2.6°C -2.6°C -0.8°C -2.4°C -3.9°C Ground Temp -1°C -1.6°C -2.6°C -1.9°C -1.1°C -0.6°C -2.9°C -4.2°C Soil Moisture to -10cm 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% 26% Soil Temp to -10cm 3.6°c 3.1°c 2.8°c 2.6°c 2.5°c 2.3°c 2.3°c 2.2°c Soil Temp -40 to -100cm 6.5°c 6.5°c 6.5°c 6.5°c 6.4°c 6.4°c 6.4°c 6.4°c Evaporation Rate 0.125 mm 0.125 mm 0.125 mm 0.125 mm 0.25 mm 0.625 mm 0.5 mm 0.125 mm

Indeed Mull, in my post I have attempted to halt the overexcitement and anticipation in terms of what the output currently suggests because the reality will no doubt be far different. With regards to settled snow, I am talking about the stuff that parents and their children will be hoping to venture out and play in after a winter which has disappointed a few. My expectations currently are precisely as I suggested before but I maintain that many in this region will see SNOW but it may end up a fleeting glimpse with no significant settling of any consequence. My advice would be to enjoy it as it falls from the sky and with luck, there may be a day or two of settled snow about for a few lucky ones. As ever, at elevation you can prolong this timescale quite substantially. Conditions similar to 2005 are quite rare but they are about right for how I see things developing after Saturday, whilst NOT picking out specific locations.

I do feel there is some similarity with the projected spell of wintry weather from February into March 2005, just at a slightly later time period than then. The summaries from back then make interesting reading and will perhaps keep our ideas of what is to come in check. In spite of what sounds quite stunning synoptics forthcoming, even back then (2005) I managed sixteen (16) consecutive days of SNOW seen falling at my location. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/2005/march.html I have reproduced the first section covering the 1st to the 8th March, as it makes for good reading. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ England and Wales diary of highlights A cold and wintry start with some significant snowfall and sharp overnight frosts. Turning milder with some heavy rain during the second half of the month. Notably warm temperatures during the third week. Mist and fog, both inland and along some coasts, became a feature later in the month. 1st to 8th: The first week or so was cold and wintry with winds blowing in mainly from the north or north-east. There were frequent outbreaks of snow, giving some significant accumulations, mainly over the hills and mountains in the north, as well as across parts of East Anglia, Kent, Sussex and Surrey. Forty cm of snow was reported at Boltshope Park (Durham), much of which fell in February, while there were drifts of up to 30 cm over the Downs in south-east England. Some significant transport disruption as well as school closures occurred across the Kent and Sussex area, which saw its snowiest March spell for at least 10 years. Even central London had temporary slight accumulations of snow on the morning of the 4th. Sharp overnight frosts were recorded, especially where there was snow cover. Western parts were generally milder, drier and brighter with over 10 hours of sunshine recorded at Torquay (Devon) on the 6th.

Hype and expectation needs to be kept in check right now. I imagine a fair few of us will indeed see some SNOW but long-lasting settled SNOW in my opinion is unlikely, in spite of what the model output might currently suggest. The interest will be as we head further into next week and how cold the nights will become after the brief snowier interlude on Sunday and Monday. AWD will provide more detail later and I am looking forward to his analysis as I have not followed the output for some time, other than occasionally watching the media forecasts. Intriguing times ahead and Spring will be left to wait for a few days yet.

Nature's Calendar - tracking of nature through the seasons.

Pretty darn impressive for time of year but I still suspect the reality will be less severe, however whatever occurs, expect a very different feel to the weather, especially out of the sun. Like AWD, I am looking forward to seeing everything but the kitchen sink being thrown at us, as the seasonal airmass battles take place overhead.

Just replicated today's as well but yes seems a strong signal. I guess a half house between the more and less severe uppers will actually win the day though.

Further to AWD's post replicated above, I think the MetO 6 - 15 dayer concurs precisely with what he's indicating. Personally, at this early stage of Meteorological spring, I am more than happy to see the mixture of weather types on offer. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UK Outlook for Monday 11 Mar 2013 to Wednesday 20 Mar 2013: Much colder conditions are expected to develop early next week. Rain, sleet and hill snow in the southeast at first on Monday clearing away with brighter conditions elsewhere spreading south. Snow showers are likely to increasingly affect northern and eastern regions through next week, but all areas are at risk of seeing sleet, hail and snow showers at times. There is a risk of some significant and disruptive amounts of snow in places, but there is currently uncertainty regarding which areas are most at risk. There will however, also be some sunshine, particularly further west. Widespread overnight frosts returning with a risk of icy patches. Signals are that it may gradually become slightly less cold by the following week as bands of rain edge eastwards, perhaps preceded by further snow. Updated: 1151 on Wed 6 Mar 2013 http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html

Thanks, probably the way I worded it too. I blame the drugs painkillers I'm on. Damn body and brain aches from a severe bout of a viral infection. I'm personally looking forward to the convective action that will result from the airmass clashes over the following weeks. Before that though, after today it looks somewhat pants for a few days.