gottolovethisweather

Ah but Jackone and a few others confirmed for me at least that the current radar precipitation signals are based on projections, i.e. the current radar will NOT show the correct precipitation type.

I'm wondering if that is already starting to happen because the Temperature trend is kicking in nicely here. The Barometer is still as good as bombing too. Still an awful long way to go yet and given the timeframes mentioned previously, it will be a long haul getting there but I must say I am encouraged by what I am seeing.

Down she goes.

Not that I've looked but AWD picked up on that the other day too. Hopefully a trend as I want to see a gradual trend towards something warmer come the Spring Equinox. If indeed, it did turn out that way, it seems so much kinder to nature as well.

A tad colder than me then. I cannot wait to see the Temperatures tumble and the winds back around a tad more. I'm sitting at 5.0c AT and a DP of 4.8c. I still have a rapidly falling Barometer trend which is now down to 994.1mb from 1010.4mb at midnight.

Temps, AJ?

Largely it will be when the Dew point reaches sub-zero Temperatures. Of course, it is however only one factor in the snow-making process.

Some quality posts in here late last night and this morning, so Many Thanks to those doing so. For now, in Newbury it is peeing down. 7.0mm and counting, started around 0830GMT I guess, whilst I was in the land of nod. The interesting thing to note is that the AT is already on the way down, albeit very slowly. Those of you located to my SW (that's 99% of you) will have to keep up to date with reports from around my area as that is where the coldest uppers will be infiltrating from.

Too early by a few days I'm afraid unless we can send Mullender packing on an earlier flight.

Well he is often on this very regional and keeps us all well informed. As for you Vince, I believe you are firmly in the risk area, are you not?

Not far off I guess, let's hope it upgrades for this region over time. IMBY I'm on the borderline of the Wessex downs (M4) corridor so we all know what that means, its a 50:50 chance right now. As AWD alluded to, elevation is the key here and will continue to be as we head deeper into February, I suspect. Never say never though, that is my motto and I will be watching throughout the event.

I see and thankyou kindly. Here comes the rain and the subsequent Temperature rises. Currently 2.7c AT, 2.4c DP and a rapidly falling Barometer trend, currently sitting at 1011.2mb Roll on tomorrow evening in the hope of seeing a few more snowflakes.

Looked out of the window and it has turned darn foggy out there, was this forecast?

Wow AWD, Many Thanks for a truly wonderful summary.

Gibby's post as reproduced from the MOD thread. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Good evening. Here is the latest report from me on the 12z output from GFS, UKMO and ECM for today Saturday February 9th 2013. All models show a deepening trough and developing depression moving steadily SE towards SW England. Other weaker troughs to the East of this one lie down the centre of the UK with occasional rain and possible sleet in the East. Overnight the trough moving into the West will develop heavier and more organized rainfall as it tracks slowly East and North over the UK. As it hits colder air currently stagnated over the East and Central UK the rain will turn to snow with some variable but appreciable accumulations possible later tomorrow and overnight in a belt NE of a line from the SE up to the NW including much of the Midlands. Later in the night the rain and snow with attendant depression will slip slowly away SE into Europe leaving a cold and cloudy period under a slack easterly flow and a weak ridge of High pressure towards midweek. GFS then shows a new trough moving slowly East later Wednesday and Thursday bringing a spell of rain and hill snow across the UK, the snow once more only likely on the hills in the East. Then over next weekend the weather settles down as a ridge slowly develops over the UK. A lot of cloudy conditions would likely ensue with light winds and temperatures just a little below normal. Through the end of the weekend and start to the second week the weather is shown to turn colder again as pressure builds to the North and falls to the SW with increasingly cold Easterly winds developing with snow showers moving West across England and Wales. Later in the week and out to the end of FI the weather is shown to stay cold with some snow about at times with some dry and cold weather too with High pressure close to the North. The GFS Ensembles show the operational as something of a cold outlier later in the run while there is a good deal of spread shown between the members. The unsettled pattern is still shown too with some rain or snow events, rather more so in the South indicative of Higher pressure to the North at times. The Jet Stream continues to flow on an Easterly drift across Southern Europe. As far as the UK is concerned the Southward moving flow over Britain is weakening currently and breaks up to realign across the Atlantic down to the SW of Britain on its journey down to Spain to join the Southern European arm. UKMO shows a front moving East over the UK on Wednesday with rain and hill snow for a time moving East through the day. Thereafter, a more Westerly flow sets up between Low pressure to the North and High pressure West of Portugal with less cold conditions than recently with rain at times. ECM too shows another trough staggering East over the UK with rain and hill snow in fresh winds for a while. The West becomes less cold and brighter over Thursday with High pressure slowly building from the South to bring all of the UK into milder winds from a West or SW direction with some rain at times in the North and West from troughs passing close by in association with Low pressure way North over Iceland. To end the run a trough pulls winds into the NW with scattered showers in places, especially in the North and West. In Summary tonight the rather cold and blocked pattern remains in place until the middle of next week at least. After tomorrows rain and snowfall clears a new trough moves East midweek with rain and further hill snow for a while.Its at that point when the models diverge with GFS showing cold and potentially wintry conditions developing in the second half of its run while the Euro's couldn't look more different with UKMO taking us quickly into milder and changeable weather after Wednesday while ECM takes a slightly slower route but shows the cold block retreating over Europe by the end of the run.

That I hope, is after the two potential snow events (tomorrow evening and Wednesday) please.

Will March do.

Uncertainty. Is that how you pay towards your childcare these days.

So do I, but I didn't want him to think that it wouldn't snow in his patch, FWIW (for what it's worth!) I think it might.

As I say, that has been how the timing of the event was always forecast, however you never know, should the precipitation get heavy enough late tomorrow, it may well settle in some people's back yards. Too far ahead to even contemplate such things but I will be glued to the reports incoming from tomorrow afternoon onwards. Slowly but slowly, inch by inch, we're getting closer to this latest event.

Not quite sure why your laughing emoticon is switched on there Mulls as that is precisely how I see things and have done in spite of one or two dodgy runs. As ever, we are NO nearer to knowing, even at this timeframe. Let's not forget the impending Blizzards we shall get, once you leave for your desperately needed skiing holiday.

My gosh there are some cheery souls in here. Hit the bottle or take a chill pill or at least be sensible in one's posting, accepting the occasional blonde moment from my good self. I find a little frivolity is a good cure from time to time and whatever happens, the weather will do whatever it wishes to, end of.

Really? If I remember correctly is the term to which I referred above. I don't do much text speak too often and this probably proves why we all should stick to the Queen's English. I thought for a moment, it was the Speckled Hen getting in the way. I think it could be time for a Magners or two to go to work alongside the model watching.

Hi AWD. Its being looked into and will hopefully be resolved in the coming hours.

Do you ever? IIRC, not that I'm point scoring, you weren't right last time. Anyhow for now, like you perhaps, I am simply not brave enough to predict what will happen with this particular event. Tomorrow morning will tell us what we need to know.