gottolovethisweather

Depends where FI is determined as. My current thinking would be around 19th or 20th February or so, so don't get excited just yet. In fact, the best way to truly determine it is via the ensembles and where the scatter starts to become even more noticeable. I haven't done a lot of looking at synoptics of late so I am very glad of AWDs excellent analysis.

Thank you AWD, good to see a dry trend for most of us, all the way out to the realms of FI, at least.

Pack your bags Mullender.

No snowinnewbury. Show yourself fellow resident (assuming you are?). Indeed it is warmer out there and maybe we'll reach the dizzy heights of 50f or so. Currently 7.6c in Newbury, Berkshire but I suspect the Air Temperature won't be getting that far above the average expected at this time of year.

Certainly a strange ole day. Went off out to the local downs and was nice and dry at first with the few wet snow coverings on the highest hills. As I was expecting to see a few brief flakes and then a progression to rain, I thought no problem, will make a day of it. Come one o'clock or so, down came the first few snowflakes and then come two o'clock or so, a progression to much heavier snow. Eventually, grass surfaces and ultimately the road started to get surrounded in a few cm's (negligible) of snowcover. As I don't drive a 4x4 I then decided that that was enough for me to start heading home. The falling Temperature trend is clearly shown by the attached, rather odd to witness but I presume the rain will eventually win out.

Another problem for the farming fraternity is that the soil has been done in and will take an age to come right. The worms which are good at turning the soil have evidently drowned and the exploding numbers of corvids are having a field day. At least for now, a drying easterly would perhaps be the best solution and add to that a few relatively harsh frosts which have been distinctly lacking of late.

None here and no sun either but both could be coming over the next 48 hours.

Whilst the forecast looks drier after tomorrow's transient snow for some of us, if you are after warmth, I think you should think again. This taken from the In-depth discussion thread. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-model-discussion-analysis-and-summaries/page__st__2120#entry2605036

I think it must have snowed a wee bit too here in Newbury (settled on car roofs), so bugger it, I'm going to add it to the list of snow days. A few speckly bits (not hens AJ ) showing up on the radar so others make see a few flakes too.

I'm absolutely certain these synoptics will pan out due to Mulls having booked the end of February off for his skiing vacation. Once you've got proof of booking Mulls, can you please post it on these forums and the weather will then firm up for the SW Battleground snow event, currently expected at the end of the GFS 12z run. I make that approximately 25th to 27th February.

I am fairly sure there will be more snow to come but I guess it will mainly be of convective nature and will largely not result in over much settling.

3 ice days, 12 snow falling days and 8 days of snow lying is my tally this winter. So far..................................................................

Don't want to disappoint too many folk in here but the situation is far too marginal to support any extensive lying of snow. 0.9c AT and a 0.6c DP says all you need to know. Nevertheless I have received several hours worth of SNOW now and I suspect many others will get to delight in the mesmerising effects of the wet snow element.

Following on from the reports from Tadley above, which lies roughly to my Southeast. I agree that there is quite a bit more SNOW showing up on the radar right now, although I don't see it causing too much concern on the roads. It may well settle on stationary car roofs and grass verges though.

Yes it was Newbury. No issues regarding SNOW on the roads though, far too wet.

Slight SNOW right now in Newbury. Very negligible amounts settling on car roofs and the grass. 0.6c AT, 0.3c DP, 995.1mb rising rapidly Barometer. Possibly more to come though, judging by the radar, coming in from the London area and moving Westwards.

I certainly wouldn't be giving up as your charts are proving to be good guidance.

Indeed we do. Currently 3.4c here and has been stuck like that for what seems like hours. Barometer hasn't budged much as it sits at 989.2mb, so yes there still is some hope given the deepness of the depression around our region and the amount of precipitation still showing on the radar. It is only come midnight and afterwards that things are expected to get interesting anyhow.

For those of you wondering about the timeframes of when we could see the possibility of rain turning to snow, I found the following post from earlier to be very useful. http://forum.netweat...60#entry2597439 Bear in mind, the above situation has changed somewhat but if you broadly follow the Thickness charts, you won't go far wrong. Also, of note fergieweather hinted at the first signs to start occuring around 9 to 10pm in my part of the region and elsewhere, it would that little bit later still, aside from those at elevation.

What are your Temps there farmer.

All it should be is a case of adjusting the MSL pressure to your actual elevation, which should be available in the instructions that came with the weather station. I think I best move on now from all this weather station correcting business and talk about our hopes of wintriness.

I hope you don't think I'm picking holes here but that Dew point looks very suspicious given that I have 98% humiidty here. I guess its nearer 4.8c

This is an interesting view of things currently, courtesy of howmuchsnow in the Midlands thread. We will of course see this trend developing further South as the day wears on. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ The cold air is beginning to get entrenched and moderate persistent rain is turning to sleet and wet snow. Since 11.45am, temperature has fallen from 4.4c to 3.1c. The whole system is starting to stall and twist with any east facing hills seeing the heavier precipitation. I think the West Midlands is well placed over the next 24 hours

Speaking of Jackone, I'll copy his post from the welsh thread into here as it is an interesting read. A slight bias towards his region but of course, any view on how different folks see things developing is good in my mind. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This was the type of upgrade I was hoping for, but not expecting in the slightest. The low pressure is further east, this allows the whole system to pivot and feed in colder easterly winds sooner. Surface Pressure http://expert-images...021100_1006.gif http://expert-images...021106_1006.gif Precipitation Amounts http://expert-images...021100_1006.gif http://expert-images...021106_1006.gif Rain/Snow http://expert-images...021100_1006.gif http://expert-images...021106_1006.gif Dewpoints http://expert-images...1100_2_1006.gif http://expert-images...1103_2_1006.gif http://expert-images...1106_2_1006.gif If this comes off and even that is doubtful, some light falling snow possible over southern areas by morning, with some lying snow over higher parts of south east Wales valleys IF this comes off. Of course, any surface water, will not help snow to settle I know that if snow is heavy enough it will settle on top, but dampness/surface water, never helps any lying snow. Of course localised flooding is also a risk for some parts of SE, due to around 40mm of rain. A word of caution, this was the 00Hz run http://expert-images...1106_2_1000.gif at 6am, the heaviest precipitation largely missing Wales, as such so does the heavy snow risk. I can also understand some people preferring the 00Hz run as less of a flooding risk . A lot of uncertainty

Exactly AJ and AWD, I never knew that the Weather Type detection function on the NW v6 radar was not a real-time signal. I must say, like AJ states it often correlates to poster's reports but then again, obviously not all of the time. 4.6c AT and stalling now, we must have lost some of the heavier bursts for now I guess.