gottolovethisweather

Thanks for your view on this and with all your added model suite input availability, it is good to hear of the current thinking for next week. With snowfall I imagine even at this timeframe, you would have very little confidence indeed in actual snowfall predictions, yet alone where and when. I like most on netweather try to second guess what may or may not happen and we all have different expectations as to what to expect, short-term and longer-term. The climate of the British Isles provides a steep learning curve each and every day it seems (bar HP dominated weather, I guess) and in that we also have to include the top brass. Good stuff and do keep your insights coming.

I'm sure AWD and fergieweather will indeed have their own views on that particular post, which on the face of it seems rather sensationalist. However, like AWD says, I also have a lot of respect for folk who don't beat about the bush and have had a fair few forecasting successes to their name too. I had seen that particular date as potentially one to watch back on the 30th January as you can see below. Note the last FOUR charts and the last but one paragraph, which is where I refer to it. http://forum.netweat...00#entry2579482 I based my assumptions purely on the way the NH Jetstream was shown to reorientate itself around that timeframe. Interesting watching things develop next week, whatever happens.

Hello all. It is about time I undertook some analysis of the GEFS ensembles suite. As ever, I base my assumptions over a succession of runs from the 12z suite in isolation. Intriguingly, of late, the GFS is lagging behind the ECM when looking for the ultimate longer-term COLD signal which many of us COLDIES are still craving. However, the GFS often goes zonal and/or goes out on a limb by default and because of this, I am simply using the period after FI for trend determination purposes. Here is how the GEFS 12z ensembles saw things developing in terms of precipitation for Berkshire and Dorset some three days ago. So what of today, how does the GEFS 12z ensembles view things in terms of precipitation for Berkshire and Dorset. Check out the MEAN (red line) to see the overall trend expected and learn to pick out specific dates over the given timeframe. Where the CONTROL (blue line) consistently differs from the MEAN you can regard such timeframes as currently unreliable, i.e. Fantasy Island. From the above, I firmly believe the trend shown above indicates something largely drier the further SW you are located within the UK. Having said that, there will be a few occasions when this clearly won't be the case, more about those later. Obviously, in terms of whether when these showery outbreaks are likely to occur can be difficult to predict with any certainty. However, you can determine the likelihood of whether any wintriness is due in the precipitation. In this case, I will firstly deal with Dorset as an example and will advise you to follow the timeframes closely. Dorset T850s on the 29th January, some three days ago. And as of today. Check out the MEAN (red line) to see the overall trend expected and learn to pick out specific dates over the given timeframe. Where the CONTROL (blue line) consistently differs from the MEAN you can regard such timeframes as currently unreliable, i.e. Fantasy Island. Broadly speaking, you can decipher whether the general trend towards something drier is likely to occur by looking at the Air Pressure tendencies, so I will now attach these for Dorset, in the first instance. Dorset Air Pressure trend shown on the 29th January, some three days ago. And as of today. So once again, from the above, the trend shown IS for something relatively dry but there are certain timeframes to look out for a blip in this trend. These are the 3rd February which will be a low impact RAIN event, with the period from the 5th February into 6th February looking a decent shout for a SNOWIER INTERLUDE. FI begins around 7th to 8th February and from even further out, say the 13th February onwards, it hints at a good deal wetter scenario than the preceding ten days or so. Onto Berkshire, things aren't much different in terms of overall synoptics. Berkshire T850s as shown on the 29th January, some three days ago. And as of today. Now the Air Pressure trend shown on the 29th January, some three days ago. And as of today. Check out the MEAN (red line) to see the overall trend expected and learn to pick out specific dates over the given timeframe. Where the CONTROL (blue line) consistently differs from the MEAN you can regard such timeframes as currently unreliable, i.e. Fantasy Island. Judging by this, the trend shown IS also for something relatively dry but again there are certain timeframes to look out for. Namely for Berkshire these are the 4th February which will be a low impact RAIN event, with the slim probability of backedge snowfall. Next up would tend to be the 8th February looking a reasonable shout for a SNOWIER INTERLUDE. I will stress the period from the 5th February through to the 9th February would provide snowfall opportunities in terms of upper air temperatures at this stage. As stated before, FI again begins around 7th to 8th February. I hope the above is of use and folks, keep tuned for many more updates from the usual suspects in the coming days. Still a whole lot to play for with this winter and for once Mother Nature looks like calming down somewhat for those who need it most.

That chart is for Tuesday Db, best keep the lamp-post company then. Incidentally your DP is more conducive for snow-making than mine currently is, too.

Indeed, hence the "if you can call it that" comment I added alongside it. Besides the weather will do whatever it decides to and as per my previous couple of posts, there could even be a short-term snowy surprise tonight. It is so difficult when putting any assessment out there as the British Isles truly contains many geographical niches and regional specific traits. I am still hopeful of some further snowfall before winter is over and that would satisfy things for me, should that be the end result. The dryness can come in time for Spring and Summer as far as I'm concerned.

Sleet/Snow turning up in Northern England as I type. Could we get lucky once again. Currently in Newbury, we are 4.3c AT, 3.0c DP, 1mph ten minute avg SW'rly and a falling slowly 997.9mb Barometer trend. Stand by your weather stations, DPs reading to hand and prepare for a possible lamp-post watch over the coming hours.

I just wonder? Maybe a surprise snowflake from this little lot before they die out into overnight period. My gut feeling is that they will have cleared before the coldest uppers reach our region. However, without hope we have nothing. Remembering my post from a couple of days ago suggesting certain timeframes to watch. Three dates seemingly stand out for me as ones to watch at this range, they are Friday 1st February, Tuesday 5th February and yet further potential for yet deeper cold from the 10th February onwards.

Often what makes or breaks a winter, is past conditions, so having had a think about it, I can state the following. So far this winter, for this little island, at least IMBY, I've witnessed three ICE days and double-digit snow seen falling and snow lying days. Not too much to complain about really from this coldies point of view. Plenty of surprises to come yet and we may well yet see the UPGRADE I was predicting afterall.

Good spot Coast , Tuesday through Thursday next week is going to be a period to watch and my thoughts from the previous post were really looking at my longer-term (medium-term as per MetO termininology). Do you have one for Wednesday and Thursday to go with the one above.

Further to yesterday's post with regards to the MetO 6-15 dayer, see below for comparison. http://forum.netweat...40#entry2579824 I will copy below their latest thoughts. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UK Outlook for Wednesday 6 Feb 2013 to Friday 15 Feb 2013: Conditions tending to remain a little colder than average for much of the period. A fair amount of dry and bright weather across the UK at first, but always the potential for some rain or showers, the showers especially affecting eastern coastal areas, where they could be heavy and thundery with hail and snow. A few wintry showers elsewhere too, particularly Irish Sea coasts and parts of the Midlands at first, but tending to become confined to eastern coasts towards the end of next week. Windy at first, with gales in exposed western areas. Widespread overnight frosts with some icy patches. From the middle of the period, conditions look likely to become a little more unsettled, with temperatures returning to nearer normal, though still perhaps a touch below in places. Updated: 1210 on Fri 1 Feb 2013 http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- To my mind, this is partly good news and partly bad, depending on which way you read things. The good news being that for the fourth time in a row, the MetO have made mention of the word SNOW. Clearly, we are to see a return to something cooler with the visiting airmasses having far less of a tropical maritime influence than previously. The result of which being that any activity will contain far less moisture as time ticks on (bear in mind, the timeframe mentioned above ). The bad news if you can call it that, will be that this region will see more in the way of nondescript weather on the whole, being nearer to the HP cell in time. Alongside this, I think the highest chances of any developing snow events will nearly always be in the East. My assessment above could be construed as slightly negative, however I will say that next week could provide a few of us lucky ones with a brief wintry tease. My main concern is where we go from the 10th February, which is much less clear at this stage. As ever, Spring proper (at least Astronomically speaking) is yet six to seven weeks away, so plenty of time to play with before throwing the wintry towel in. Furthermore, the first of February's 12z runs are trickling out as I type and will probably produce another spanner in the works for the MetO to think about.

Going to bed now, but one last request please PM Gibby confirming your love or hate for his posts. Stick with the model output discussion in here, as it is so much easier to read when we remain to the topic in question. My interpretation FWIW, is for a potential game-changer come next weekend, with next week itself throwing up a few surprises for some along the way. Two days ago now I posted this in one of the regionals and I don't think much has changed to alter my mind. http://forum.netweat...00#entry2579482

Yes, I think for most areas, bar the North and perhaps some Western regions (in the NW'ly flow), it will be case of taking one step at a time. Overall, damn good synoptics for our little island, given the deluges this past week. I actually have an inkling it may end up pretty cold and dry for most come Mid February but I'd settle for a few days of SNOW before then, that's for sure.

BANK.

Not a lot wrong with the long-term either, aye JP.

Perhaps it's an out of date chart, but I had seen a different one to you upon which AWD made a comment, see below. http://forum.netweat...80#entry2580302

I think your humble little opinion would be quite right, but we do need these baby steps in order to get to the holy grail that a whole lot of us still yearn for. JP will have a tasty Fax chart or two to post in the coming days methinks. JP, have a gander at Tuesday's one when you can. T'was one of my dates to watch as well.

Looking once again at the longer-term outlook, another post suggestive of what I believe will be a key timeframe, if we are to get a final fling from PROPER WINTER. Of course, I still have next week on my mind but that will most probably be a case of one day average temps, one day cool enough for wintriness and exchanging from one to tother. http://forum.netweat...80#entry2580258 This also falls nicely in line with AWDs posts from the last few days too.

RAIN RAIN RAIN, do let us know when you're thinking of going on holiday.

Another sound analysis of where we might be heading is given below by AWD, courtesy of the SW & CSE thread. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quick glance at the medium to long range potential tonight, leant towards the search for colder, Wintery weather. We have good confidence now of a mid Atlantic high pressure system setting up next week. Something like this will be typical midweek; What this does is block the Atlantic depressions from smashing into the UK as they have done so recently. This is also known as zonal. What looks like happening now is the Atlantic depressions look like being deflected north over the mid Atlantic high in the northern arm of the Jet Stream; You can see above the Jet Stream riding over the high, hence the amplitude in the Jet Stream. These then come back down south in the North Sea and into mainland Europe, forming a Euro trough; The red in the Atlantic being the mid Atlantic high, the blue over Europe being the Euro trough. What this will bring to our part of the world is colder than average conditions, summed up nicely below; However, whilst some snowfall is possible on elevated areas of our region, it would still remain very marginal for most of our region due to modified warm sectors raising Dewpoints and WBFL values. Things like this aren't worth speculating until much nearer a potential event anyway, but I wouldn't rule out surprise snowfall cropping up on embedded troughs in the flow for some next week, indeed I half expect it. Beyond next week, I tend you back to a paint job I did a couple of days ago. Here I mention the probability of the Mid Atlantic high starting to topple over towards the UK after a couple of failed attempts trying to get into the Greenland area. Well, is there a sign of this in the models; Yep, timing aside, this scenario is gaining support as we enter week 2 on tonight's runs. This then sends WAA (warmer Atlantic air) up towards the Iceland corridor; Similiar to my paint job chart above. What this does is help start of height rises in the GIN corridor, nearer the Norway side I think however; Bingo. The last frame of the ECM Det starting to show this develop. Whilst this takes place however, do expect a brief return to near average temperatures as mentioned in the Met Office 5-15 day forecast. This is because whilst WAA is being sent up north, the high has to topple, bringing less cold air for us temporarily. Now what I expect to happen beyond the ECM is a bit clearer tonight, if indeed the current model output verifies. Back to my paint jobs, it would be something similiar to what I said a couple of days ago. This; Ignore the black line for now. Height rises becoming a player towards the Iceland/Norway area and a euro trough digging further south into Southern Europe. This scenario would bring the cold air over Europe here; Westwards over the UK. The ECM anomaly chart for week 2 represents my thoughts well; So, I'm very happy about where we are heading currently, but it is stil a long term trend that has a long way to go still so caution is most definetly still required. The trend gas gained momentum tonight in the 12z data, that's all we need at the moment. - coolnext week for the most part, just not quite cold enough for reliable snowfall, however, if everything is timed right, surprise transient/wet snowfall is possible for some, elevation key here - do expect a recovery to near normal temperatures briefly towards the end of next week as the sypnotic pattern sets itself up for the main event. Also expect drier conditions. - cold mid February from the east/north east/north still looking good, still my long range punt. How cold and if it will be accompanied on snowfall remains to be seen. My guess at the stage is not mega cold but easily cold enough for snow, which we will see at some point being closer to the Euro trough. All looking fine still guys. We can but hope.

Hello, well I'll set the ball rolling in here with my analysis from yesterday, if you don't mind. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Hello my long lost friends, well i hope you still are (my friends , I have actually met some of you ) I am still about, but largely I reside over in the CSE and SW thread and it is from there I want to provide a posting. Have a read guys n gals, JP et. al keep up the good work. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- On top of the wonderful analyses already provided, I wish to add my initial thoughts for the first third of February and perhaps beyond. As usual, I am basing my evidence on consecutive GFS 12z runs and where need be, additional tweaking from other sources from elsewhere. As ever, I urge newbies and/or unexperienced model output followers to please view things only from a global perspective. In general, miniscule yet undeveloped surface features often at the >t+96 timescale only serve to confuse your interpretation of the model output. This week, being a special case in point of this, as we have a very difficult forecasting situation at the <48 hour timeframe. In fact, let us look at where the NH Jetstream was projected to be by todays date (Wednesday 30th January, 12pm), some two days ago. As a consequence, what were the expected associated T850s. To be expected, it did develop into what we basically witnessed at the surface, a breezy type of day with the NH Jetstream roaring directly above our heads. However, when we move forward another 48 hours to Friday 1st February, 12pm), we were expected to see the following conditions, NH Jetstream and T850s profile wise. Compared to what is now expected on the hugely anticipated date of Friday 1st February, 12pm. Not much has changed from the GFS 12z expectations of two days ago, compared to what is now projected. If anything, today's 12z run has upped the anti with the depression. However, the split flow in the NH Jetstream is much more of a talking point because after Friday's event it offers the UK a complete reversal in terms of airflow from tropical maritime to polar maritime, albeit temporarily. So now what of what on Monday was the t+144 timescale, Sunday 3rd February, 12pm. Previous expectations against todays, having moved forward to t+96 timescale. Firstly in terms of NH Jetstream. Monday's 12z at t+144. Todays's 12z at t+96. How about Sunday's T850s profile wise. Then and now. What is apparent now is quite a divergence in output, from just the last couple of days. Two important points to note here IMHO are, that we MUST NOT DISMISS the relatively high chances of backedge snowfall (I guess at a 60% to 70% risk for my location) from the Friday event. This takes place between the previously shown chart above and the current one. What is not shown is the large range of t850s diving South from polar regions, in between the two charts, i.e come the very cold February 2nd as hinted at by AWD. My second point is such charts, on the face of look rather disappointing springlike synoptics, after a brief tempory excursion from the North, in fact by t+144 (Tuesday 5th February, 12pm) end with us heading towards an ever cooler wintry type of synoptic yet again. NH Jetstream diving South once again. Associated T850s profile at Tuesday 5th February, 12pm timeframe. And then some, come Thursday 7th February, 12pm, courtesy of NH Jetstream and T850s once again. It would be futile to look in detail, any further than next Thursday, however I firmly believe there will be a significant upgrade in the coming days, when speaking of further cold potential and wintry type synoptics. Three dates seemingly stand out for me as ones to watch at this range, they are Friday 1st February, Tuesday 5th February and yet further potential for yet deeper cold from the 10th February onwards. For the more immediate timeframe, regarding the appoach of the potentially dangerous (hopefully trending less so) development, I advise folk to follow posts containing NAE output, NMM output and/or MetO Fax chart updates. Stay safe and stay tuned to this regional for many more updates.

Whilst its only my view, have a gander at my post from yesterday copied below. http://forum.netweat...80#entry2579499 or even today's here http://forum.netweat...20#entry2579829 John Pike's posts covering the Fax Charts should give you the more immediate outlook.

In fairness I did say several hundred miles due west of the Northwestern tip of Spain. If AWD is correct then I suspect the MetO will be on the ball with this one, its the depressions which track through BoB area that are the buggers to forecast.

Much further North than I envisaged then.

Not just of use to newer members either Nick. I like others I'm sure will often get lost in all the explanations offered by the many wise chaps/chapesses on here, without back up from attachments.

Indeed, I simply cannot speak for all. Whilst, at the same time, I will never say never though. A trip down the Exe Estuary is long overdue in my case and let us all hope we get something much more like Spring and Summer this time around.