gottolovethisweather

Well I don't know what to think re: the weekend event/non-event at the moment but the GFS hinted at something afoot by the turn of February, as illustrated by my post from the 23rd January. My main area of interest was then how Gibby viewed the output across the board, which the ECM especially suggested a brief incursion of cold come the beginning of February. Your views have been a longer delay to something even colder and I agree with that and will take it with open arms. Backing this up, I think once the NH Jetstream gets disrupted, which it does over the coming 48 hours, all sorts of possibilties will start to come to the fore. Initially I see it as some drier days mixed in with occasional topplers. Below I copy once again, Gibby's thoughts as head into February. http://forum.netweat...80#entry2577202 The only downer I see for now is that there is a lack of confidence in the MetO further outlooks in the use of the word SNOW. When they start making more use of the frozen liquid wording, I will become more confident that something will be on its way. Indeed, there is an outside probability of them getting things wrong in the relative short-term as AWD and I have suggested, so watch this space!

Only 487, I had to check you had that right Coast, is there even that many rivers, streams etc down that way . That is astonishing.

Check out the speed of these incoming systems on this satellite animation. http://www.yr.no/sat..._animasjon.html Pay special attention to the latter frames in the animation, that NH Jetstream must be hurtling through over our heads. Can't wait to the split flow occurs as expected, in a couple of days time, then this should lead to an entirely different pattern once again. Even milder tomorrow and just the same overnight. I saw expectations of 13c or even 14c forecast but we shall see.

Yikes. Some peak gusts courtesy of Weather online. Cairnwell (933 m) 100 mph Cairngorm Mtns (1245 m) 99 mph Aonach Mòr (1130 m) 91 mph Capel Curig (215 m) 85 mph Aberdaron (94 m) 78 mph Great Dun Fell (847 m) 74 mph Mumbles (32 m) 66 mph Valley (10 m) 65 mph Pembrey Burrows (6 m) 63 mph IoM / Ronaldsway AP (16 m) 62 mph Glenanne (160 m) 62 mph Loftus Samos (159 m) 61 mph Aberporth (134 m) 61 mph Glen Ogle (564 m) 61 mph Lake Vyrnwy (359 m) 61 mph Leeds Bradford Intl. Airport (207 m) 61 mph Scilly St Mary (30 m) 60 mph Tiree Island (12 m) 60 mph Raf Mona (62 m) 60 mph

Yes PB, tis rather blustery in Newbury, so far the highest gust I've recorded being 29mph @ 16:35. I am particularly sheltered from the south where I am but you can safely add another ten mph to my top gusts to get an idea of what it is like out there. Currently AT 8.3c, DP 7.8c and a 999.9mb rapidly falling barometer. I bet it sure is windy up at them there hills. Liking the GFS 12z trend from the last few days and I concur with one or two other thoughts in here that Friday may become a rather interesting event to say the least. Many a day after the next couple or so look like being progressively cooler as we head into February, which again is a consistent trend coming from the various computer models. Warm tomorrow, a few wetter and windy spells in between and then more of a Northerly flow and potentially a fair bit drier bar some wintry showers, as we enter into what is currently FI timeframe. AWDs post from the MOD thread sums things up rather nicely. http://forum.netweat...3/#entry2576941

Hi Weathizard, I hope this helps. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Atlantic_oscillation

Hi PB. Two things have confused me in your post as firstly I can't see any radar returns near Newbury according to the NW v6 radar at least. Secondly, I have received 10.8mm today which is somewhat below the 112mm you reported. Intriguingly however, my mother has just reported probable lightning lightening up the sky out West. The nearest cell to us appears to be non-thundery and that resides over the Chippenham area of Wiltshire.

Yes, even for Costa del Dorset, that would be a bit unusual for a winter's day. 7.6c AT here and my gosh it was a bit blustery last night, coming back from a night out. The snow will return, I can feel it in my bones.

A quick post as I'm just about to go out but it does seem Gibby's latest analysis copied below from the MOD thread, rather follow my thoughts on the coming week and into next weekend and beyond. http://forum.netweat...80#entry2574974 And below are my thoughts on the oncoming trend from the other day, so not a lot has changed with attention drawn to the last two sentences. http://forum.netweat...40#entry2569597 And my prior thoughts from the 23rd January. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75712-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-discussion-220113-23z/page__st__360#entry2565388 Here's to a cooler trend once again as we enter February.

If not before.

Now? Stop pulling my leg. Courtesy of Weather online.

This comes as part of my NW Extra Full Subscription so I shouldn't be duplicating this, however it clearly paints a picture of the twelve hours from midnight onwards for my location. You can see the wind is forecast to back around come 4am and the AT will drop as a consequence. There will at no time however, be Dew points condusive for production of SNOW. Next 48 hour Forecast for RG14 Sat 26/01 AM 00:00 01:00 02:00 03:00 04:00 05:00 06:00 07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 Temperature 2.6°C 3°C 3.2°C 3.2°C 3.9°C 3.1°C 2.6°C 2.1°C 1.7°C 2°C 2.9°C 4.3°C Ground Temp 1.2°C 1.6°C 1.8°C 1.8°C 2.3°C 1.8°C 1.4°C 1.1°C 0.9°C 2°C 3.5°C 5°C Air Pressure 997.9 mb 998.1 mb 998.5 mb 999 mb 1001.1 mb 1003 mb 1004.2 mb 1005.6 mb 1006.8 mb 1007.9 mb 1008.7 mb 1008.8 mb Wind 22mph 19.2mph 12.4mph 5.7mph 16.2mph 18.8mph 18.2mph 15.6mph 13.5mph 13.5mph 13mph 12.4mph Gust 28 mph 23 mph 23 mph 27.1 mph 35.1 mph 36.2 mph 34 mph 31.8 mph 27.1 mph 28.6 mph 26.4 mph 24.4 mph Wind Chill -3°C -3°C -1°C 1°C -1°C -2°C -3°C -3°C -3°C -3°C -2°C 0°C Dewpoint 2.6°C 3°C 3.2°C 3.2°C 3.9°C 3.1°C 2.6°C 2.1°C 1.7°C 1.6°C 2°C 2.7°C Humidity 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 94% 89% Cloud Cover 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% Rainfall 0.86 mm 0.37 mm 0.33 mm 0 mm 0 mm 0 mm 0 mm 0 mm 0 mm 0 mm 0 mm 0 mm (Moderate) (Light) (Light) (None) (None) (None) (None) (None) (None) (None) (None) (None) Forecast

When for exactly? Only way this situation is trending is towards a rapid thaw as others have suggested. Either that report is well out of date or they are ignoring the reports from observations from folk such as us. 2.4c AT with a massive 2c DP now and plenty of rain to come. According to the current radar image, you would pretty much have to travel up to North of Derby to see any snow falling now, bar a few snowflakes for a while out East.

Ah yes, some convection will make up for the lack of snow. However, I guess tomorrows rainband after tonights rain will result in an awful lot of flooding. Expect saturated news coverage of this over the coming days, if you pardon the pun. The current radar confirms this, if really needed. Before seeing this, I was hopeful of a rather slow thaw but alas, that will not be happening. Stand by your rain gauges folks. The only current SNOW of interest is falling over Central parts of the UK from Manchester Eastwards and in Scotland. Our climate seemingly going from one extreme to the other once again.

Like Tom, my Dew point has risen in accordance with the Air Temperature. So in spite of what they suggested on the BBC N24 forecast recently, I feel it will be RAIN all the way now, for pretty much all of us. At elevation, you of course, will have longer to keep things on your side. Currently 1.2c AT, 0.1c DP, 1006.1mb falling rapidly Baometer trend. Floods and further deluges being the forecast for the reliable I'm afraid. Like others have said, thankfully the radar returns aren't looking too heavy so far. This should aid a steady thaw rather than a troublesome one for now.

LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW, LET IT SNOW. Another SNOW day in Newbury and having tallied up my days of SNOW lying, they come to nine after todays reading at 9am. Rain will inevitably be along later but it will find it hard work to push my snowcover aside, in spite of another day of gradual thawing. Currently 1.2c AT, -0.7c DP and 1008.9mb falling rapidly Barometer. The angle of the NH Jetstream, as illustrated by the GFS 12z doesn't show anything excessively mild, bar a warmer feeling end to January. My eyes are still drawn to probable changes in the flow as we enter the start of February.

I may well see another snow day at this rate but I don't expect things to last for very long before turning back to rain. The significance at the moment seems to be where the SNOW is currently falling , there are favourable dewpoints. Watch this space.

1.8C AT right now, -0.6c DP and 1012.7mb falling rapidly Barometer

Assuming its the main band of precipitation coming across already, there an area of rain that is showing as sleet/wet snow on its leading edge. Currently, the leading edge runs from North to South through parts of West Wales, Eastern Cornwall/Western Devon (such as Ilfracombe/Okehampton/Western edge of Dartmoor). We still have a vast covering of snow in places and it ranges from 60mm to 90mm in general terms. The rain may well start as snow and stay as snow for the longest (two hours or so?) in central parts and Eastern parts of the UK where the best snowcover remains. Longer term, the GEFS ensembles seem still to be hinting at a cooldown next weekend once again, albeit a long way off. As per my post and rather similar to AWD hinted at, albeit delayed. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75712-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-discussion-220113-23z/page__st__360#entry2565388 and http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75712-south-westcentral-southern-england-regional-discussion-220113-23z/page__st__380#entry2565522

Thanks AWD, I get the gist of what you're showing there but I'm still not as au fait as you with all the charts. Nevertheless whether I understand everything, perhaps matters not, as you have provided a most useful analysis once again.

I hope this is of interest to you folks in here, I have copied this from the CSE & SW thread, food for thought. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ok, this cold snowy spell hasn't even ended yet but I feel this summary from Gibby should be kept in mind, as we enter into what is currently FI, the beginning of February. http://forum.netweat...60#entry2565065 Even before Gibby had suggested the above, I must say I watched the GFS 12z run today for the first time in over a week and I got the feeling from viewing the NH Jetstream profile, it would like to split once again from full on zonal, around the period from 31st January to 1st February. Should it do so and the Southern arm decides to dive South, it could be GAME ON once again. Today's GEFS 12z ensembles suite loosely back up my gut feelings too. Gibby in particular, highlights the ECM as hinting at possibly picking up the potential for a trend to colder conditions, come next weekend onwards. All conjecture at this range but Chiono and GP et.al have also mentioned that the projected milder spell may be fairly short lived, thanks to MJO and SSW influences amongst others. Winter may have only just begun and could be back with a vengeance back next weekend, you have been warned.

Ok, this cold snowy spell hasn't even ended yet but I feel this summary from Gibby should be kept in mind, as we enter into what is currently FI, the beginning of February. http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/58354-in-depth-model-discussion-analysis-and-summaries/page__st__2060#entry2565065 Even before Gibby had suggested the above, I must say I watched the GFS 12z run today for the first time in over a week and I got the feeling from viewing the NH Jetstream profile, it would like to split once again from full on zonal, around the period from 31st January to 1st February. Should it do so and the Southern arm decides to dive South, it could be GAME ON once again. Today's GEFS 12z ensembles suite loosely back up my gut feelings too. Gibby in particular, highlights the ECM as hinting at possibly picking up the potential for a trend to colder conditions, come next weekend onwards. All conjecture at this range but Chiono and GP et.al have also mentioned that the projected milder spell may be fairly short lived, thanks to MJO and SSW influences amongst others. Winter may have only just begun and could be back with a vengeance back next weekend, you have been warned.

Thankyou kindly, a poet in our midst. By the way, its still SNOWING, anybody checked the radar of late, a few more surprises overnight it seems. Look towards the Southeast.

In spite of loving the snow, it would be nice to have seen the SUN on more than just coupole of days through the whole of January. It must have been one of the dullest on record in my neck of the woods.

???????????????? Dare I Google some of that little lot. A fair thaw going on here but we have also had a fair few snowflakes to add to the tally today too. More sleety/wet snowy areas are still showing up well on the radars but eventually I feel it will be too warm for snow, more especially come tomorrow for most.