BA Baracus

I must admit I had lost faith this morning after seeing the front fizzle out. However it does appear to be gaining strength whilst moving north towards us.

Bits of dandruff in the sky in Leeds. Hopefully the front holds together.

The radar is now showing the front almost tearing apart to the west of Stoke. The good news is that the Northward march is much faster than this mornings asthmatic hobble! Scarborough and the North York Moors look like the place to be with continual heavy showers peppering the coastline. Hopefully the wind will change direction and send the showers further inland.

Hi SB (or anyone more knowledgeable than me!) What was the reason behind the front fizzling out earlier. Was it the Pennines, was it meeting colder air, was it the wind direction from the east or something different entirely?

Not exactly. The BBC weather presenters do sometimes use "real" radar but I find that they tend to use the projected model tracks of weather too much. The radar images are clearly defined and are easily identifiable compared to the BBC model graphics. Paul Hudson's forecasts are sometimes good with radar images and discussion, but the graphics last night were terrible with general grey murk and flakes of snow everywhere without definition or reasoning behind what was going on. I've not seen the lunchtime forecast as I'm at work, but I would imagine that there will be the usual snowflakes everywhere with minimal detail as to what is happening now and in teh next few hours.

I think that the BBC and other organisations that provide weather bulletins could learn from forecasters in the USA. The US forecasters generally start with the current radar image and then review its trajectory and intensity to provide a short term forecast for an area (even down to street level for serious events!). For snowfall and heavy rain the forecasters in Britain seem too reliant on what the computer says should be happening rather than what is currently happening. Yesterdays fall was pretty much ignored by all organisations even though it was obvious from around 3pm that the area was expanding and intensifying.

http://www.meteoradar.co.uk/home/maps?bg=0 A larger field of view for the radar. Look where the only clear skies are..... a line from the wash up through Lincolnshire and Yorkshire to the west of Scotland. Everyone else has snow!

Yes, I have noticed this change in the front. The initial SW-NE movement stalled and died back just before it reached Yorkshire. However the pivot is now clearly visible with a more Northerly movement to the front. Not sure if it is just an error on rain today, but the last frame of the animation (12.45) shows darker echoes re-appearing which if true can only be a good thing!

Presume PROB40 means probability of 40%. That means more likely not to happen, as is currently the case.

At this stage I cannot see this chart verifying as the energy in the front is ebbing away slowly. However, if the winds pick-up later today from the east, could this pep up the front similar to last nights falls?

Yep - the front seems to be dying a death on the West and South Yorkshire border. It has stalled and is losing intensity all the time. A shame, but to be fair, it was forecast to be a pretty pathetic affair last night for the region. We have a covering of 1-2cm from last nights unexpected falls and there does appear to be opportunities for further falls later this weekend so cannot be disheartened at this stage.

The roads were quite dangerous in places this morning. Driving through Birstall up to the M62 the roundabouts near Showcase Cinema were covered in ice following quite a heavy snow shower (maybe 1cm lying snow). In central Leeds there have been sleety showers on and off all day, but most of the activity looks like it has been further west.

I don't often post on this site, more of a lurker and have very little technical weather knowledge but is long range forecasting anything other than pure luck? I do enjoy reading the forecasts and do hope for another cold winter with snow, but I cannot see how long range forecasts are anything more than the equivalent of putting various possible outcomes into a hat and pulling them out for each month. I do, however, have utmost respect for those of you who look into variables that make our weather so complex; the phases of the moon, various oceanic currents, and other complicated things that are difficult to fathom!

Showers popping up all over West Yorkshire now with rain and rumbles heading in to Leeds from the south west. Incidentally, there are now loads of seagulls flocking round the south of the city near Elland Road - is this a sign of anything?!

Dark skies now forming to the south of Leeds and to a lesser extent over towards Morley. One of the (very) few benefits of working in an office is the view you get of the surrounding area!

Just noticed the Met Office have issued a severe weather warning (at 13.14) for much of eastern England from the North East to North Norfolk from 15.00 to 22.00 today. Looks like they are expecting storms to build for many more hours to come.

From the top of my office block it appears to be darkening to the west of Leeds over in the Bradford direction. If these clouds do anything they will most likely hit north west or north Leeds and not the city centre judging by the wind direction, unless they build from the south. The storm that passed through earlier is still producing distant rumbles as it heads towards Tadcaster.

The storm has passed just to the south of Leeds city centre but has produced at least 10 cracks of thunder and torrential rain intermittantly for 15-20 minutes. Skies very black to the east but sunny and blue skies to the west. North east Leeds looks like it is getting a pasting at the moment.

The odd wet flake now in Leeds centre. Getting a bit heavier now.

It's been showing precipitation on the Met Office radar in Leeds for the last hour but there hasn't even been a single flake yet?! What's going on?

Snowing big wet flakes here in Leeds at the moment. Wasn't expecting this at all today.

Very fine grains of snow here in Leeds city centre for the last 30 minutes or so. It is covering everything it touches. The journey home could be interesting!

What a morning....! I don't think I have ever seen ice like it. The car had a solid 1cm crust all over. De-icer had no effect whatsoever so I had to hack away at it with the scraper. The roads were horrendous to drive on and the 10 mile commute took almost 3 hours. Cars were sliding everywhere and pedestrians were falling over as every surface was just a sheet of ice. Get into Leeds city centre and it is a different world. There are still bits of ice and slush but nothing like at home, where our pre-Christmas snowman's corpse is still standing in the front garden and we still have a decent covering. Weather currently is dull, misty and cold with intermitant freezing drizzle (frizzle?!). Can't see the temperature getting much above freezing today.

Lewis, as the resident expert on this forum - could you advise on the probability of snow for Cleckheaton (or North Kirklees in general)? We have around 6 inches of lying snow, but I am greedy and want more for the weekend!

About 12 flakes of snow stuck to the car this morning in Cleckheaton, but that's it for snow overnight. Bit disppointed with the forecasts that were pushing the showers further west last night that they actually went. I can't see any snow for the western parts of Yorkshire today. It's a beautiful day, but very cold and icy. I'm hoping for snow this weekend, but it appears that the chances are that areas further south and east will be hit with areas towards the pennines missing out.