lorenzo
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Posts posted by lorenzo
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From the Vitart poster on the ECM32.
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the main source of predictability on the monthly time scale.The MJO is characterized by an eastward propagation of convection along the tropical band, typically initiated over the Indian Ocean. When the MJO is in its active phase over Maritime Continent and West Pacific, it tends to drive negative NAO circulation with cold temperatures over Northern Europe 2 Weeks later.Current MJO outlooks - highlighted here on the ECM plots are a couple of nice looking outliers. Transition shown from Indian Ocean > Maritimes >West Pacific, which you can see more clearly on the Hovmoller below.
On the Roundy plot the MJO signal is clear at the top of the chart, so not noise.January Phase 7 for low amplitude phase as per predictions above, bear in mind the lag.
Could not look more different to where we are at now, but good model guidance for a negative NAO signal working through in the mid range. Height rises over Greenland and potentially some wave 1 activity.-
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Normally we see these Atlantic lows out at 120-144 and they dilute upon timeline to verification. Nearly ever ensemble goes beyond meteociel limit of 930mb today.
ECM 500hPa and Jet, just look at that bottle neck..
Met Office Fax Monday / Tuesday
ECM / GEM / GFS / GME /UKMO solutions -
ECM SLP has this at 926mb - mean
This one is just going to fly across the Atlantic on that yr.no animation. Already Yellow warnings in place for many parts for Monday and Tuesday, certainly going to keep everyone on their toes up until Xmas.
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Normally you would blame the pub run, for well, being the pub run...However this is tonight's mean...Jaw dropping.Rest of the panel is here http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=84Includes this and many others similar.Mind boggling.
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18z gfs ens MEAN...
Chart doesn't require much comment, pictures speaking 1000 words etc..!
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That was impressive, rapid squall passing through, wind in all directions, blustery, torrential horizontal rain.
Am now immediately jealous of that comma North west on the image - packing in with plenty of sferics.
Really wild stuff..
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Here we go again, Santa in an F1 Sleigh this year. 70mph 10 meter wind speed into the NWest of the country.
Kicked off with a 245mph upper Jet.
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Quick set of charts from the strat. interesting now to compare in real time the projected activity against the OPI wave prediction posted by Sebastaan a couple of pages ago. Beginning to think that the Italians using October data to predict the key planetary wave events impacting the vortex over winter really are onto something..
Asian Torque responsible for the uptick in MT activity.
30hPa & Vorticity at 240hrs
Wave 2 & Heat Flux
GFS Temps, important to cross check with what GFS is looking at compared to the ECM, as we have been here before with ECM.
EPS weekly - later into January.. - tells it's own story.
Lining up well for Feb, vortex is a heavyweight and this is akin to landing a lucky uppercut in Round 6. Still a few rounds of hits needed..
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Good to read about some snow at last, and some thunder / lightning going off.
Radar grab reflects the areas predicted by the Euro4 model currently receiving snowfall, accumulation chart out til midnight .Scattered sferics generated by the train of Cb's streaming in.
Next week and the Jet chart is still ramping away, with the upper low spewing out more systems.
On another note, teleconnections, read about this last night. 2013 sees first time ever AO postive has exceeded 4 in November and also December, let's hope there is a period later in Winter where it seeks to balance this out a little.
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Just an endless train of systems on the model runs across the festive period.
Xmas Eve charts
Predicted on the 18z as - Christmas Eve 945mb, Christmas Day 965mb and Boxing Day 947mb.
Daily express into overdrive.
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Still some strong gusts out there, fractus cloud flying along. Quite eery.
Moon is in conjunction with Jupiter tonight for those astronomy fans oot there.
From the Eumetrain site, couple of images, just to show the lovely cold air and convection pepping up.
RGB - Red Cold Air and Water Vapour Imagery - Dark, dry descending air.
Latest sat image.
Sat Rep has an army of Cb cells and a MCS further north.
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Can anyone tell me how to translate "Wind speed 10.0 m/s" into something that makes sense such as "miles per hour" please?
I've now got the KB weather station feed which gives me excellent localised data, but I need to translate that wind speed! Is it metres per second or something? Guessing...
http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/abs/Weathercam/station/
973 pressure and 7.5C
Blawin a hoolie and splatting rain.
(Excellent typo there of blawin a goolie
)http://www.calculateme.com/Speed/MetersperSecond/ToMilesperHour.htm
Also, found this link again, which apart from a huge amount of other great FAQs contains this one relating to SNAW !
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Crazy looking things - radar snakes.
Couple of other links - one for LEWP which links to Derecho
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Drookit ! Nice walk across Edinburgh Park to get train, wind howling through exposed area and caught in equally shower, reminiscent of when Katla poured through. Train being buffeted by wind too.
Some amazing radar return this evening. New jargon alert LEWP, line echo wave patterns. Squall lines.
Stay safe folks !
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I agree Mondy, Sunday and Monday outjpit implied that this low wouldn't bomb as much.
Guess it comes down to the final interactions with the jet which cannot be resolved until much closer timeframe.
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GWO in higher orbit now, and also a little uptick in Red on the Mountain Torque chart, signs of a pattern shift. Wonder how much influence the torque event will have..
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UKMO which out of all the models looks very lively overnight, as does the ECM.
ECM 0100 hrs 19th and UKMO 0100 and 0700 hrs for same date. Looks like they both bring the low further east vs. the system deepening and turning North earlier as per yesterday output.
Early morning Fax from Met Office has this at 948mb.
A week today and a mother ship low spawning several child lows for Xmas Eve / Xmas Day. Another similar story to this week.
Busy old week coming up, hefty gusts and good chance of snow for many, never mind your mild Christmas, definitely a wild christmas.
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fergieweather kind enough to provide some UKMO charts re: Snow potential.
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LS - added your excellent summary from the last thread to this one, great starting point.
18z deepens sees the low exit the main pulse of the upper jet and stall at 51 hrs.
So, a lively night Weds. night and an evening satellite run vs. overnight with initiation around 7am of Weds. morning.
Wonder what the UKMO will do with #emily in the next 24 hrs..
Pub run , throws in the works for Xmas Eve & Xmas Day..
Other than chasing Greenland High, Easterly or within 24/48 hrs of SSWs model watching doesn't get as dynamic as this..
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Meant to add these to ^^^
RE; Kelvin Wave discussion - this plot shows that recent activity largest KW of 2013.
Phase 5 in Map view or ALL if you prefer.
Another thought wrt ENSO /MEI, what would MJO progression do to SSTa's...
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Interesting, the CPC GEFS outlook on the MJO activity update today has a couple of notable highlights. Also interesting wrt the predicted MJO progression http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78775-moderate-tropical-storm-amara/
IO action seemed to suck every ounce of energy out of the last MJO Phase so how it transfers to the Pacific of massive interest in how Jan. unfolds.
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It is unclear at the current time whether the persistent enhanced convection we have seen across the Indian Ocean over the last few weeks will shift eastward on MJO timescales and emerge over the western Pacific by the end of December.I must admit to liking the UKME for MJO projection, seems more refined than the hasty GFS, GEFS which is on occasion at odds with the ECM, faltered by it's lead time. UKME ensemble then control provides a good balance for a glance before referring to raw data.
Both, however are on the case with some height rises should the MJO punch out of the energy going into the cyclones and traverse into WPAC.Phase 5 is not a bad place to move on from in January as blocky phases 7/8 await, frictional torque builds and mountain torque in the offing, very lively end to the year for the storm track, January already gathering interest..-
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hi
I'm from Estonia
Welcome Eero. Hope you enjoy Netweather
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But it's ok Sainsbo because it's mostly up north and northerners are wind proof apparently lol ;-)
Sadly not, I appreciate that we are apparently a hardy bunch and the jest within, so not having a go. Reality is that the last system caused fatalities and it was Meto warned, timing is rotten, again risk of sustained wind profile at rush hour where this a school run before Xmas.
For a good example of where no matter what warnings are issued the inevitable finds a way, watch this.. Driver gets outta there sharpish..
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-25372502
As much as I love the meteorological aspect of seeing these systems spawn from the pressure gradient of the subdued heights and vortex transfer, truth remains that a lot of folks will still be caught out by the unforeseen.
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No problem, tho my intention was not really to correct you, but just to point out the date, so people wont get confused.
GFS Control run doesn't look too bad, considering how the operational run looks like. And considering the ageostrophic flux, it does seem to have some decent wavebreaking, which is quite remarkable, given its 2mb model top (or perhaps that is the reason.
).Cheers.
P.S.: On a side note, as noted on the NOAA modelling site, they are considering ensemble resolution increase to T574L64 (model top at 0.3 hpa) in 2014. Not confirmed yet, but it is a possibility. And I would say that it is a likely possibility, given the resolution increase priority at NCEP. The most evident being the considered GFS resolution increase to T1148 on a semi-lagrangian grid. Tho the question remains, how the FIM model comes into play, with its revolutionary icosahedral grid.
Confused myself, totally agree with the correction and thank you for doing so.
Part in bold needs some further explanation please , have you been having coffee with Snowballz ( another quite technical, well versed poster on here). GFS surely has to step up and match the ECM lid, unfamiliar with the semi-langrangian ( is this some form of mathematical processing / interpretation). Icosahedral sounds like hardcore physics! Fascinating, but please go further, I know one other poster mentioned FIM previously, really not sure what it's aims are.
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Thank you all for your continued contribution. 25K visits and nearly 1000 posts since the end of November, Superb.
New thread here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78776-scotland-regional-discussion-16122013/
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Thanks Sebastiaan, had not read the Martineau paper before, some fascinating insight there on the importance of Wave 2 Activity. Possibly more important key point is the differences between SSW events, underlines the importance of poleward EP Flux also.