lorenzo
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Posts posted by lorenzo
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Haven't seen the strat time series for a while, be nice to have a crystal ball....
Another way of looking at the Wave activity we keep searching for on the Berlin plots.
OPI prediction
A little more technical info on how the calculation is made ( helps if you have google translate..!)..
http://www.centrometeotoscana.it/forum/index.php?topic=7364.0
Very much reminds me of one of Ed's good analogies for things the one about dripping in oil, can't remember it all ! Gist being eventually the Wave 1 activity culminates to produce an effect.
Looking so far at the Wave 1 action on the plot above and comparing to the NWP Archive shows how important getting the blocking in the right place is.
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Well it looks like a period of sustained positive NAO / AO with the classic harbinger of doom set up polar vortex hammering away at Greenland, zero shredding of systems at the Greenland tip, oh and locked in for 10 weeks, that would be February 14th btw.
Hmm, can't see that happening, although can see this part of winter having a despondent effect on everyone..
Looking for cheer in the models, at the NH view both ECM and GFS have indications of weak High Pressure building over the the pole, during these runs there are also subsequent Aleutian lows. Can we get an Aleutian low anchored?
Next 6 days also sees the main hemispheric driver the negative EPO move back to neutral, which will shift the pattern around, so whilst looking like a simple case of Greenland Vortex / Azores, there are other things to keep an eye on
.The period of positive NAO was well predicted last week, and is still on course to be roughly the same as predicted, waning towards the 20th of the month, the control run from ECM again at either extreme of the ensemble set.
It's positive for a period, but not rampantly so peaks at +2 deviations and the mean is more neutral.
From the viewpoint of pure meteorological advance, this is also interesting , whilst it doesn't give everyone a blockbuster Greenland High / Easterly, it continues to validate the predictions put forward by the OPI.
The ever loveable GEM has another take on things at day 10, am sure easier on the eye this morning than some of the other output.
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ECM has hints of something on the Wave 2 plots, however this dissipates by day 10, still have seen these build day on day also, so worth keeping an eye on.
The 30hPa plot below gives a good perspective of the other warming we have been tracking. Whether this is remains in the surf zone ( Ed can clarify if this is correct use of that term) is also worth keeping an eye on. Hints of something down the line perhaps.
Found this on Joe D'Aleo blog last night, a nice depiction of the QBO / Solar base states & the JMA plot of 30hPa temps
With such a concentrated vortex can't hep thinking we need that Asian MT event, frictional torques not supportive, a shift in GLAAM required.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/reanalysis/aam_total/gltauf.90day.gif
A case of patiently observing just now.
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A poor ECM and if we get to the position shown at T240 it's a very long way back from there.
Ian,
Please can you provide some clearer analysis or discussion to explain your view point. Or, it will just mean anyone can pick any chart and say right once we get to 264 on the GFS its nailed, or once we get to 144 on UKMO its a long way back, or that 300 chart on CFS is likely. It's cherry picking.
It's clear you have a reason for repeatedly writing such 'long way back from there' statements, however until anyone actually knows why....we will never be in a position to either counter or support your thoughts.
FWIW, wave 2 activity in the strat is looking interesting this morning, the slower jet profile at 168 on ECM will probably re-appear on the 12z, so long way back from wherever that is, I don't think this will be the case.
Anyway hopefully you can enlighten us..
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Morning all, bit wild out there today then !
Stay safe. Away to try and get a train which may be either running slowly, delayed or cancelled - Scotrail very informative !!
Very strong gusts here, lights flickering a lot. A proper hoolie.
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Fax updated within the last hour, a true Northerly.
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Fax John mentions deserves a post, it is a beauty.
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Gust charts for the further 6 hours.
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Gusts approx 90mph into West Coast of Scotland.
One of those situations where looking at the charts here before the event is nice, however the eery element remains that a system like this can catch folk out.
The introduction of the cold air is rapid.
6am - noon - 6 pm
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Wind gust chart from the 18z run, SLP can be deceptive..
Also a dedicated thread here http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78664-severe-storm-system-arctic-blast-thursday-5th-onwards/?view=getnewpost
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Not long in from work and pretty damn cold and breezy out there already.
From the Eumetsat eport, this grab shows the RGB Airmass and Satellite.
The overlays in beige are for the 300hPa streamlines, and also the Isotachs which highlight the jet in yellow.
80 meters per second equates to a 178mph jet. Classic European windstorm.
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Never mind the rest of December. This rag have it all worked out... LOL !!
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I have recently been checking the NAO forecast over the past few days and for the third day in a row more and more members are pointing to a negative NAO around the middle of December. Whether this will have a direct effect on the UK is unknown, something worth watching though IMO.http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
It will if hopefully we end up with something like the mean, from mid FI to extreme FI.
Control run, not so bullish.
Reforecast product also hints at the same, although neutral NAO will look appealing after that week or so of heavily positive NAO.
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Yep. looks pretty bad Thursday morning across Scotland, gusts of 80-90mph on 18z GFS, perhaps 90mph+ in a few spots. Funneling through the central belt could bring some very damaging gusts to the populated areas here.
If these wind gusts were forecast down sarf, I'm sure there would be alot more media attention! This maybe worse than St Judes!
Guess it is relative to the size of population impacted by St Judes versus the number of folks due to be in line for this one.
Still, I would hope an Amber warning does go out, ESPECIALLY considering timing, as Liam mentioned, right on the school run, don't need anymore hellish accidents that can totally be avoided.
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Still as fierce on the latest run.
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Bomb. 12mb drop in 6 hrs..
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Like this a bit?
We can but dream..
Sorry to sound daft but What is a Bartlett?
A Bartlett High. Couple of links here explain all..
http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/67869-bartlett-set-up/ http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/117
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Expect to read...
Winter is Over.
It's spring time.
Mildest Winter Ever.
It's only one run... really is one Ugly looking slug of a Bartlett !
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Some ugly output from the ECM too this evening. Unless you like Bartletts of course.
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HC, just raided an old folder full of Bawbaggery... very similar..
And, in all it's trampoline glory..
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This is a grim looking forecast from the afternoon models. Mentioned the Amber warning last night, wonder how the UKMO see this low developing, if anything like this then surely Amber.
92 mph gusts.
GFS / UKMO
Jet
The only positive if you can call it that is the system barrels through and out to sea in a few hours.
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Nice post CH, the Scandi ridge certainly has support from the 100mb profiles, checked both ECM and GFS this time, reference ECM Berlin plots throwing us dodgy data earlier in the season. Well defined at 168.
Both ECM and GEFS provide the illustration of the Wave 2 Activity, some cross polar perturbations may indeed be kicking around soon.
30mb temp - encouraging signs but would love a Torque event to really test things.
Re - trailing segments of vortex, I know that these are complicated charts representing vorticity across an atmospheric layer, however without losing your mind to the physics involved provide an illustration of how the vortex is stretched.
Apologies for mixing the strat charts into the model thread, synoptics of the NH ridges are the key elements in play here, and trying to highlight the heights support.
On a bias front the ECM 00z ramps up Scandi blocks at 144-168, whereas the 12z is more moderate, something to also consider along with it being amped.
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With the usual caveats re: extreme FI and paying attention to the mid/long term trend as advertised by the ECM weeklies this morning.
The control run shows this.
Would be a nice week before Xmas on Netwx model thread if we were being tempted with retrogression and a Greenland high..
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Into Sting Jet territory now...
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Scotland Regional Discussion - 29/11/2013 ---->
in Regional
Posted
Average temperatures, grey, overcast, derich, drizzly, dull - What's not to love?
Has to be the most uninspiring, boring, lifeless, pointless weather you can get!
Ach well, time for a Sunday Sesh !