lorenzo
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Posts posted by lorenzo
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Little while back put together an MEI and GWO plot for the first half of December. Though it best to re-visit with re-analysis. Updated through until 11th December.
Not a great correlation, the cold outbreak into CONUS has verified pretty well, the West Atlantic ridge which on the composite, and noted at the time, seemed a little progressive it did not establish, everything rotated slightly further east on the composite for our side of the hemisphere, the cold troughing for re-analysis right in our locale versus Russia. We also didn't see any Siberian heights, the North Pacific ridge a lot stronger than the composite dates, however this Aleutian High has been one of the strongest on record for 2013 as a whole.
Composites for YTD and November to Date
However, can see some similar themes in the general pattern of both, so not totally disheartened. Conclusion and learning point here for me is that in December vortex rules the roost and any significance from analogs can be used but only if weighted to consider the current state of play in the strat. Any thoughts welcome !
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Told everyone at work it would snow on the 23RD.They have written it on a post it note.I hope I am correct.lol
It's a trend to colder but impossible to nail due to the paths of the lows, when they initiate, how fast they travel across the country, the direction of travel, how much cold air is dragged into the low.
FWIW couple of charts from Net Wx Extra GFS. 23rd looking like another windy day.
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Some of the strongest looking wave 2 activity so far this year on the ECM plots this morning, monitoring - not a prediction..
Zonal wind profile appears to be tightening.
Way up at the top of the strat. a nice run across 1hPa culminates in this plot at day 10, context provided at 30hPa.
GLAAM forecast from 5 days ago has trended away from Phase 2 Nina state back towards the origin, little sign of frictional torque building and developing an EAMT, not sure where this will go from here to be honest having seen this plotted with certainty to move into Phase 2 then on through 3 - 4.
Either way, indicative of pattern change, which I guess will take 7-10 days to settle in and then we can take a read on where it is headed through January, some thoughts on twitter mention the Pacific Jet cranking up will keep track of these.
The 30hPa chart is the key one for me, it's a seemingly immovable object this year!
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89mph highest gust recorded so far, albeit way up in the mountains Aonach Mor, 1130m. Uist and Tiree at just above sea level 68-70pmh.
Midweek sees a variety of solutions on the low.
GFS Hi Res
UKMO/GEM/ECM - GEM for once NOT going off on one and the more relaxed of the three.
GFS 06zOut into the mid-range the trend continues towards Christmas week. GFS, and in particular the control run, along with a couple of the wilder ensembles ensure us weather geeks will have plenty to keep us entertained over Xmas.
Edit - fixing charts
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Another big low for mid week, certainly cooled down back from unseasonably mild to seasonal overnight.
Different interpretations of the low from the models at 00z, GEM for once rather calm looking.
ECM / UKMO / GEM
GFS 06Z
Christmas eve still going for the uber low on GFS this time held back in the Atlantic.
Control run maintains Braer status.
Great to have some explosive output to follow in the run up to Christmas Day, the GEFS ensemble is simply loaded with storms for the 25th. These 2 examples on the more extreme end of things.
Even whilst at 240 hrs, the consistency is there with the trend established, that is 60 hours now of similar output. Lively model watching. Aonach Mor leading the gusts today at 89mph, at altitude. Tiree 68mph at 12m.
Trampolines for Christmas....
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One for the road...
Sinai & Sphinx
Caption Competition.. What do you reckon this camel is thinking....??
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Looking at the surface plot on meteo our low is just a meagre little dot in a big ocean, about to undergo some rapid transformation and a 40mb bomb in the next 18 hrs. 987mb > 947mb by 1800z Sat, taking evening fax from Met Office into consideration.
Latest Sat ImageLoop this when you get tomorrow morning - will be worth a watch..
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18z GFS is really firing up on all cylinders, couple of charts from the model thread here..
Mid Week looks like things are getting kind of sporty..Evening Met Office Fax for tomorrow shows the system having bombed. This is currently 18 hrs away. a 40 mb drop awaits...
Incoming on the brilliant yrno sat run.Pub Run serves a Vortex Xmas, and it has been something of a trend this week, GFS in mid-long range has been like a dog with a bone going for a cold incursion over Xmas. Control run has been on NCEP Xmas Night out and had a few sherries..-
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Looking through the ensembles the 18z op something of an outlier, question being will the pub run op be leading the ensemble pack or is something like the mean more realistic.
The control run is also up to Christmas craziness here and delivers the PV for Xmas.
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All that is visible on the output at present is a swathe of Met Office Warnings. Extremely active storm track, tomorrow the evening fax bombs the system to 947mb. Sunday's system travelling farther north has an even stronger core.
Sat / Sun
Out into mid-week as per other charts posted already, a really serious windstorm. Pressure gradient from the south coast to the Grampians spanning some 46-48mb. This from the 900hPa chart, 108mph peak.
ECM mean jet profile - UK firmly in the firing line.
Explosive model watching, almost like a switch flipped and the Atlantic slammed into full gear, pretty dizzying compared to the meandering euro high of the last week or so.. Fascinating to watch, dreading the hyperbole in the media from the usual suspects, also hate to think this gives any sort of credence to the 'sources' used by some of these papers.
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Pressure ensemble for the Faroe Islands right on that corridor of systems. Wow.
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Thanks for the link scotster, look forward to watching that, now that monopoly of telly by masterchef concludes !
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Okay from the 18z pub run Ensemble - bombs away
Three of the most extreme projections, general track is in place, another 8 similar in that run either further North or less explosive.
This evening Fax from Met office and 12z ensemble.
Going to be another amazing satellite reel on yr no from this one.
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With the strong Polar vortex getting a lot of bad press with respect to the current output, thought it only fair to highlight the site below and the mechanics going on in the Stratosphere, this being one of the only animation sites online shows you how good Recretos videos are.
The vorticity charts for different layers of the stratosphere are sometimes posted from the Berlin site.
On Andreas Dornbrack's site, linked from Berlin page there is a run through diagram of this in motion.
Link should be for 600k others are available down to 400k.
Completely hypnotic and gives a great representation of the complexity involved as the vortex shifts across the pole.
Another great feature is the ability to loop the warming in the higher strat. allowing you to flick through heights to assess propagation.
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18z thankfully tracks this latest bomb NW of the country.
Rapid deepening 983mb through to 951mb in 24 hours.
Comparison in decent agreement.
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Couple of others from the same timeframe following on from LS post, this with the Atlantic view.
Jet mean and control run
500hPa anomaly and also t850hPa anomaly.
Couple of other tempting charts from Huug Van Den Dool site - cracking name that !! Pretty nice charts too if you like Greenland highs
Just got to complete a Deadliest Catch grind through this positive NAO spell and fingers crossed the wait will all be worth it later on.. still lots going on to monitor within the reliable wrt. to the RACY systems bombing on the Jet.
Edit - add ECM mean at 96 hrs. ECM mean charts Now on Netweather http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ecmens;sess=
Also the postage stamps are back for folks who want to look through the entire run.
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At work so cannot post charts, the 12z GEFS panel is worth a look for over the weekend, some truly insane systems projected within the perturbation suite.
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=102
GFS spectacular at winding up low pressure systems, however many similar runs in this selection.
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I think we could describe it as a mild night: http://www.met.rdg.ac.uk/~brugge/amextremes.html
Great link, really mild, feels like late Autumn never mind December !!
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I'll take today's weather thanks, very easy to live with: 10C, little wind, 70% cloud, splendid colourful sunrise and wonderful big dramatic cloudscapes this morning. Happy bunny here.
Hope you were oot with the camera HC, always like the amazing pics.
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Think Joe B has been following the activity on the 30hPa CPC plot as this is included in his tweet. Not sure if there is anything else making him so positive about how the strat will unfold.
Still warming on the edges of the vortex, and it is looking solid, the zonal wind profile is frightening, hence my call to send in the nukes. ECM at day 10 and it is ramping along at 100 ms-2. Temps from early in GFS run then FI.
Though these were worth sharing in the spirit of the festive season and in celebration of being bathed in African southerly air.
EC32 / weeklies / monthlies - yes they have three names, for final week of December.
Ensemble 2 please from here, perhaps a displacement.
The block attempts this throughout the run, but it really is the vortex that is in charge here, no doubt. Edit ; Sorting images.
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Thought I would have a quick look and see how the MJO was getting along.. and BOM evidently doesn't enjoy this set up either, it's gone to sleep, or maybe just can't be bothered plotting things in the circle of doom for another 20 days or so..
It's a strong euro high, a rather relentless ECM Ens run also way out to 360 shows very weak attempts at extension to Scandi, and even weaker attempts at retrogression. The control run here and the GFS / ECM heights.
ECM spins up a monster low in the Pacific out at day 10, one to keep an eye on.
Looking at the AO, the GEFS with the most positive run of the season. ECM asking some questions after the 18th. So while there is no point in denying the current malaise from our limpet high. Still things to watch.
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Anyone with SkySports turn over to Skysports 3 the snow is unbelievable!
It's just cruel seeing that - they are getting an utter pasting !!!
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Okay here is an idea for someone before the ECM comes out this evening.
In all seriousness, dull as dishwater output on the model runs, each to their own for weather preference, but it doesn't get much more lifeless than this !!
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Derek the weather on Twitter pointing out source of southerly air for Wales is Morocco......
For Scotland southernmost source - Mauritania via the Western Sahara !!
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Scotland Regional Discussion - 29/11/2013 ---->
in Regional
Posted
Just when I had thought, that's enough weather for one day.. Couple of distant rumbles, possibly waking up the residents of Fife about now..