lorenzo

It's pretty ugly out there, nasty cold rain. Some good potential with this system as highlighted in the Storm Thread, might see some nowcasting warnings change throughout the day. Snapshot of the sferics from the NetWx ADT http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=lightning;sess= V6 Radar will be worth a watch today as cells pop up here and there, already clustering away in the Atlantic on this satrep image. Quick satellite loop http://www.meteo-mc.fr/~meteomc/Images/sat/sat_new_ireu.gif Track of the system from meteocentre Few images from the 06z run on Eport - water vapour showing the dry air, windspeed and airmass. Estofex storm warnings are on the overlay.

And, the media are off on one again. ARCTIC BLAST BLAH BLAH BLAH. It's feckin November ya muppets. Rant Over. Great convective summary from Nick F describes the synoptic situation very well http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=convective;sess=27ef6d6a4ab98d6ca2b7fcfed77fdbe5 Looking at the NMM and Meto fax here are a few of the charts that show the low tracking through and the colder air influence as it does. Meto drop this to 974mb as it moves out into the North Sea and some windy conditions in the mix Messy SLP picture which shows the colder air wrapping in as it passes and decreasing 850Hpa temps. 530dam line makes an appearance and elongates perfectly NW- SE, the pocket of 528 does appear well to the North West. Here's oor first snaw, and a window tomorrow evening for some fireworks ! 0degree isotherm at around 650-700m Nice and Baltic for the start of November and some nice webcam pics to look forward to for Sunday morning.

It is a pity the EC32 is not available in the public domain, there is far too much rubbishing of it's output on here, when I suspect those speaking negatively may have not seen the actual output. I was fortunate enough to see a few of the runs last winter and to be honest it had a good runof things, in addition it is considered as Ian F mentioned by the UKMO. I certainly would not discount the outlook it is presenting. As always it is used in conjunction with other forecasting suites, Matt usually reports a balanced report of the monthly, so look out for that for a steer.

Good shout Winters Tale, having done no research and with no idea where the mean temp records for Scotland are located, will go for 4.9 !

That latest warming reminds me off something akin to don't poke the hornets nest.. You might a) wake them up b.) or get them agitated. Last time I saw this posted it was stalling and now has taken a plummet. Lots of different strat charts to pick from but this caught the eye at 30hpa. In the mid range ECM, a very solid looking vortex. Chiono will be able to clarify how they make that temp graph am sure it isn't as simple as taking the low temp from the Berlin prediction. Even still the 30 hpa run indicates a further 6 degree drop in minimum temp, out til the 9th November. Already an interesting watch..

Check the my media button when posting, you should be able to find old attachments there.

BUS , for the QBO, this page is the quickest reference to the phases http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html

Here is one for you Phil http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450(1964)003%3C0001%3ATMWSWA%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Re Canadian Warmings, this post from last year thread from Gael Force located the paper with the definitions. Here is a copy of the definition to save you clicking around. 2.4 Canadian Warming The fourth type of warming, a Canadian warming is actually a hybrid; a minor warming disguised as a major warming. At first, a Canadian warming looks like a major warming, in which the easterly winds replace the zonal westerly flow in the polar latitudes. However, a closer examination of this phenomenon shows that the westerly polar night jet has not really been destroyed, as in a major warming, but is displaced south of 60°N and, usually, relocated over southern Siberia. Canadian warmings set up when an intense strengthening of the Aleutian High forces the high to build into northern Canada. The warm air and easterly winds associated with the high displace the cold polar vortex, pushing it south into Siberia, causing easterly flow in the high latitudes (Labitzke, 1977). When the Aleutian High weakens, the polar vortex pushes northward and the stratosphere returns to its normal winter circulation.

Beautiful skies this morning, a fine cold start to the day. Hopefully more of the same to look forward to in the forthcoming weeks. As Catch mentioned quite a set pattern as we head into November with a more zonal outlook courtesy of an organising and intensifying vortex. The colder 850hpa temps are appearing with increasing frequency though. Jet looking pretty robust on the latest GFS run, a constant stream of energy exiting Canada and the US East Coast. Relentless may be a better word. However if comparable to the St Judes storm, may be getting modelled a little more intense than it actually it is after crossing the Atlantic. Plenty of Atlantic depressions sweeping through, going to be some cold mucky conditions heading toward Bonfire Night. With regards to November as a whole, at present not a lot on the horizon to upset the particular pattern in place, will keep searching !

If the satellite imagery, this thread and everything else about this system sweeping through isn't enough to keep you occupied. 5 live have a storm show on just now.

Meto evening Fax from 20 mins ago pin points the low. Eport has updated with 18z Imagery and things have moved along a bit since earlier, some rocket fuel incoming to kick this thing off.

No worries Buried. Some bright cells pinging through on radar right now, good skies. Still a fair bit of weather to get through today spinning off that low anchored to the Northwest.

Bus, regarding the deleted posts, I have sent you a PM earlier today, as far as I can see your post regarding the models downgrading the output is still there. Regarding last Winter, I would suggest sending a PM to one of the Reds or Blues on the Team.

Think some context is required and we are all aware of the media bias, and how grating the inequality can be at times, we can however stay classy and ignore it. Michael Fish on bbc news provides some background to the hype over this system - Forecaster Michael Fish, who famously reassured viewers there was no "hurricane" on the way, said the weather over the coming days would not rival the Great Storm. He told the BBC News Channel: "Present thoughts are there are three storms it's comparable to - March 2008, January 2007 and October 2000." We are more than familiar with Atlantic lows tracking in easily at least 3 a season of similar depth, looking at the stats above, this in fact a pretty rare event. As always if there are any posts that are disparaging about the team or generally negative then they most probably will be deleted. Please use the report button if you need to or send a PM. Some great weather watching coming up, Enjoy !

One dodgy run from a global models pub run. I am unsure how anyone would expect the GFS Pub run to find it's way home after a night on the ensembles. Let alone model accurately how this low fires through a trail blazing upper level jet.

It's a traditional Atlantic Beastie, that the ever so reliable GFS 18z wants to downgrade at the last second. Model watching - still as insane as ever for a hobby.

Very interesting 12-18 hrs coming up, to see whether the fuse is lit on this system. Coming into nowcasting range and a classic bit of model drama. Let's be honest about things, as much as everyone wants a monster system and hardcore model output to mull over, the reality is if this downgrades and does not verify to some of the more extreme solutions then this is a bonus. Surface plot 2200 Eport airmass imagery from 18z

All the ingredients are in place for a notable system to develop, that vital period of final interaction and exit from the jet all important on how this bombs. Jet whilst downgraded a little last night losing some of the more wicked speed in the West Atlantic, looks again this morning back equally as rigorous as earlier in the week. UKMO Charts from the 00z runs GFS ECM / GME / GEM Meteocentre / UKMO As JH mentioned last night for those not up to the wee hours, FAX the way to go to see how the UKMO General model with input from the chief see the feature developing. Ian F put a great post demonstrating the continuity of how the model has tracked this in from 108 hrs out. Hope something less drastic than the extreme verifies here, as fascinating as these systems are to watch them bomb on satellite they can cause upsets. Satellite animation of this come Sunday evening will be impressive too. Bookmark this link if you have not done already.http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

Welcome to Netweather Nol. Am sure you are hoping this feature tracks North also..

Spied this on facebook this evening, some of these are quite funny. http://www.buzzfeed.com/robinedds/the-most-wonderfully-scottish-things-that-have-ever-happe Meanwhile, on the storm front, model discussion thread is full of information and a dedicated thread also running on predicted events for Monday. Met Office latest Fax pivots the track of the low North versus the straight on 3500 km 48hr journey straight over to Denmark. Good post from Ian F in the model thread also shows the strong continuity of the predicted path of the system on their general model, indicating the fax charts are the best to follow at present. Lots of hype as October goes out with a proper depression coming through. Will it deliver, or....

Solar influences on the stratosphere are well researched. Dr Karin Labitzke is the key author on the subject at the Free University of Berlin. Resume Brief here There are many papers newer than this, however this is a good one to have a flick through. ftp://geosp-server.aquila.infn.it/isss/ASSE06/Labitzke.pdf With respect to the impact of solar activity on the precise location of the Polar Vortex with respect to increased solar flux, not something I have seen studied in a paper yet.

?? It does. Low centered 12z Mon approx just S of Hants. PPN tallies troubling across S England irrespective of windfields. The material we can access plots every 24 hours, the point here is about the chart between the jump from 120 - 144 not being available to view from the 12z run, this leaves some blanks to fill in so to speak. One way round this, and granted it is not from the same run is to look at the 00z for the time frame required, as per below.

The 00z ECM Ensembles are worth a look, would be nice if these were slightly easier on the eye to look through. 144 / 156 A fair few troublesome solutions in the 156hr run, so not without support from the ECM either.

50-70 mph wind and 60-80 mph gusts. Massive caveat being as others have mentioned the GFS tendency to ramp up features like this, truth is we won't know until nearer the time if the system will bomb as projected on the 06z run. Certainly providing some good model watching at present though !

Am not the best person to ask, am sure that Recretos discussed the lack of data for this region in one of his excellent posts in this seasons Stratosphere thread. Might be worth a look there.