lorenzo

So much to read - so little time ! Nice sum up in the first paper, describes the SSW impact on the trop. very well. Publication lists for Baldwin, Cohen, Jaiser ( great read that one). http://www.nwra.com/resumes/baldwin/publications.php http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers.html http://epic.awi.de/view/ldapid/rjaiser.html

Get a good cardigan oot !!

GFS ramping up the vortex in this run, hatched areas creeping ever more steadily into Scandi. Some convective feedback in effect perhaps, will be interesting to compare the ECM 168 later this evening. The mid Atlantic low looking pretty unanimous now for round about day 5.

Few more familiar names appearing at the bottom of the user list now.. welcome back.. Also a good few lurking about who haven't posted yet. Please join in and say Hello, we are a welcoming bunch, you have found the best place on the Net for banter about Scottish Weather.. Looking ahead to the next couple of days, here are a selction of charts from the NetWeather NMM suite. Mainly from the very short range NMM 6 run. First up sees a decent swing in the 850Hpa Temps, approx 9-12 degrees colder from current conditions. Also a wee magical patch of sub 528d air that will give the highest peaks a sugar coating of snow. Ensembles from a few locations around Scotland all demonstrate the changing airmass. Couple of Faxes from Meto, show the cold moving down from the Arctic, with a decent trough visible. The 48 hour fax shows the direct Northerly flow. Massive variance across the British Isles with the 0degree isotherm, and also temps dropping overnight later in the week. It's going to feel a helluva lot fresher in this Wind too, as per the Meto Fax charts a direct hit.. A wee teaser for Winter then and enough of a breeze to get trees stripped back some more. Roast Dinner and Red Wine season beckons. Enjoy !

Huge amount of material on this blog relating to Arctic Sea Ice and many other related subjects. http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/

WAA is closer detail, these from this mornings run, and another wee video loop to keep an eye on. Ensemble & H5 Spread Looking forward to the clocks changing, much prefer ECM rolling out at this time vs BST run.

Nice link Interitus, puts all the atmospheric variables into a neat timeline, hadn't seen that one before. Bloody 'ell just noticed we are on page 100 LOL!

Found this dataset in the above link, contains the weekly stats for anyone wanting a closer look. ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/pub/DATASETS/nsidc0046_weekly_snow_seaice/browse/ 2010 really was a perfect recipe. Just look a the massive advances from Week 1 of that month to Week 4, even better in the GIF. Animated Also this index has a nice map view of things, good for seeing how Siberia has developed. ftp://140.90.213.161/autosnow/4kmNH/

Ian, where have you been hiding, have missed your banter, here's some similar gibberish.. Hands up, we never expected the traditional outcome of the SSW to have any lag effect on the atmosphere at all...... I must have imagined the Met Office blog going up about the delayed feedback shortly after the previous 40 days of tracking it down to T-0 Hrs.

Shredded or smooth Marmalade, another eternal question. For winter proper, who knows how it will pan out yet, really is a huge amount to bring into consideration before putting out a prediction on that one. By late October hope to be in a good position to make an informed guess as to how things will unwind. Nice idea BUS, still a wee bit of Autumn to get through first, I think the excitement is palpable already, the winter discussion is at 94 pages and there were half a thousand folk on here on Thursday night !! What I do think is that, when this Northerly begins to filter in and the 850s take a dive it is going to be a right shock to the system, the strong summer in comparison to previous ones and this very benign and mild spell will be a distant memory pretty quickly. Spring saw continued cold and this summer has seen continued mild settled spell. Atmosphere wanting to get stuck in patterns, or notable lag effects ??

Looks like a long winter ahead of model watching indeed, already the shredder blades are sharpening and a bigger model bin is required. For those reading that aren't familiar with the phrase binned, binning etc It isn't just abuse, the pros over the pond use this term frequently to discard wayward solutions. I fear for the slaugthering GFS has coming it's way, can't help feel it is a victim for churning out 4 runs a day so as much as it is maligned, it keeps the soap opera ticking along.. Day 6 bias map shows the jet anomalies, a 50 knot plus bias exiting the eastern seaboard on both the 00z and 12z, the 00z last 10 runs also kicking things along at Greenland. 00z / 12z At 72 hrs... GFS on par with the Japanese and Canadian models. At 120 hours, the 06z, yes you read that right, the morning madness run is the best verifying run of the GFS. The 12z in other charts in this range on par with the pub run. Finally, the one to watch , UKMO, at 144 hrs leading the pack. UKMO and ECM - clearly the one's to watch. I really fear GFS will be referred to with the same respect as CFS this season. Still , I guess we wouldn't have it any other way!

At first attempt for October using the refined MJO analogs then I am pretty happy with this. Everything lined up in our vicinity, the Atlantic troughing, the elongated High Pressure and the core of the vortex, albeit a little farther East than the plot. In addition a couple of the lows on the other side of the hemisphere are also visible within the output. Could be that the new ones with the higher amplitude MJO stripped out give a better outlook. Obviously lots of testing and trialing needed but will keep at it until it works !

Just noticed the other thread had been rumbling on for a wee while. Welcome everyone who has been around all year, and welcome back those of you out of summer slumber. Here's to a fun Autumn with plenty of active weather ahead as we descend into hopefully another great Winter delivering everything for everyone at one point or another. As always to our new folks or visitors, dive in, say hello, let us know where you are, and what you love/hate about the Scottish Weather. Don't be 'feart' to ask questions, someone will always be at hand to help answer them ! We like a good a good bit of Banter and debate on here Enjoy !

And why the pub run is fun !!

This season will be great given the recognition via Met Office last winter to the influence of the strat. Am biased but credit Chiono fully with this catapult to 'mainstream' and look forward to this seasons new thread. Hell even Steves good lady was asking what the strat was doing ! Meanwhile, here are some of the charts that may be around for the coming months before things really get going, and EP Flux physics began scrambling our heads, and let's hope the Vortex if it does get going does so somewhere favourable, and if it is a cat on a hot tin roof again we are in for a good season on unpredictability with splits and displacements galore. Not a lot to read from the 10hpa and 30hpa charts at present, a minor mild blip, other than that right on the line. All quiet on the eastern front. At 100 hpa, the most unreliable of reliables, sees this at 120 hrs, perhaps with some bearing on the Atlantic.

Almost certainly MJO related given the difference in projection from these 2 models, UKMO very progressive here.. Here is a plot of ensembles derived from CFS input which can account for some of the similarity here. http://www.kylemacritchie.com/real-time-maps/realtime-mjo/ Cannot verify with real time info. due to US shutdown. But a pretty good balanced forecast based on what the main models have delivered this week. Some analogs are in the Tech thread for base patterns. Good to see some form of disagreement at the very least gives us something to debate around. ( awaits pub run ensembles for nonsense..)

RE previous post, with the Phase 5 analog. that didn't pan out at all well !! MJO moved on a little, guess if taking anything of note from that were the defined Arctic heights at the time. The plot of phase 7 whilst full of troughing across CONUS does highlight 2 key features cropping up on current output, namely the UK ridging and the location of the Vortex. This is the where the amplitude is below 1. Didn't really expect the ridging anomaly which extends far North on this plot to appear, interesting to see ECM toy with this in some frames at present. The All amplitude analog and also Alan Huffmans one here for comparison. Looking at MJO forecasts among the models each have very different ideas at present. UKMO fires things up a little. GEFS has a flatter orbit into low amplitude Phase 8, along with the classic MJO plot and the one filtered for again low amplitude. Very different. ECM having none of it and again we are back in the null zone, following the monthly outlook this the version not amended for climatology the EMON, the mid range version alongside. Taking a read on that there is no clear route to prediction with reference to MJO. However some themes there and the High pressure influence is captured well. GWO main homepage is offline. Nick Schiraldis page is updating and the Start and End forecast remain in the origin zone. Quite an unusual October by all accounts, and the lethargic Hurricane season is my main culprit. Can't help thinking with all that ACE to catch up on in terms of redressing the yearly means then things will spark along sooner or later. Until then I guess the eyes are on the longer term impacts of the SAI for October. Edit just noticed http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#KAREN The next one's got my name on it, would be ironic if that was the one that unlocked the door to the Atlantic.. hope it's a fish !

It is indeed a helluva chart, at 10 days out, will be an interesting watch alone, among the swathe of seemingly endless settled charts we have a great big whacking anomaly to track. NH view also looks pretty spectacular and bottlenecks the vortex. Should ensure the Snow and Ice in NH thread goes off on one for the next 10 days !! Interesting to see ECM still with the bias to lower scandi heights, so what actually verifies could be a little more powerful than expected. At the same time frame over the last 10 12z runs the GFS reports a generally similar theme.

Welcome along Dr Forinor, The Scotland Regional thread is quiet just now, but give it a few weeks and it will be in full tilt with all our summer hibernating regulars waking up for winter. Plenty to keep you updated there, yes, we post snow pics, charts, radar, winter tyres, winter. This was last winter from Scottish Skier as him and Catch got ALL the snow, ALL of the time !! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcx0F4SBN5s

I get what Damians Law was saying the other day about October being a boring month, and the associated Southwesterly airmass clagging up the skies. Everything very benign, the regulars on the Regional Thread are also bemoaning the lack of active weather! The Hurricane season has forgot to start, and currently is serving up Tropical Storm Jerry, who frankly you could be impolite about given it's ridiculous progression from wave to depression to storm. At last look the MJO had faded in strength with the UKMO run the most progressive of the models moving things into a low amplitude phase 7, GWO is flat lined at the orbit with little sign of any resurgent Jetstream action aside from the odd Pacific pulse. Don't go looking for a further update at present however, bit of a nuisance !! Grabbed this composite earlier today, prior to everyone not coming into work.. MJO dates where for October low amplitude Phase 6 and 7, similar to the suggested UKMO ensemble. Very progressive with the ridging over and North of the UK by Phase 7. Maybe too much but time will tell..

This is about as geeky as it gets... ! An interesting visualisation of the QBO over time... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_-QlDmicIw

Thanks Anthony, another great post helps my understanding greatly, what is your read on the GWO just now a very flat, stuck, orbit at present, any predictions for October > November. The 90 day plot shows it pulling out of the low AAM base state into the origin. The tendency chart has threatened to establish jets off and on but never quite got there. Pacific Jet thinking about it and has shown some 200kt pulses recently, but never actually making it round the hemisphere to the Atlantic. Mountain Torques also taking a dip. All contributing to what is quite a settled and dormant outlook at present. Frictional Torque also negative. What should we looking for to see these kick up a bit?

Here is some more information on the broken Buoy reporting a very high SST. See WTMP on this link 73.4F http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42099 This was the source on Twitter who posted about it last night. Got a lot of time for Dr Ryan, his site is superb and has some good data sources. Related chart output as a result. Certainly looks to me like some kind of error with the EPS mean chart above? Am in no way fuelling the missing data mythology, one could argue the GFS 06z does that on it's own every day !

Saw on Twitter that a buoy in the Atlantic was mis reporting temperatures and directly messing up model initialization. Due to be fixed by Tuesday. How much error can be attributed to this, unsure. But a definite error impacting UKMO and ECMWF.

Chilly and clear start to today, sky is rammed with contrails. Felt a lot colder overnight too. Edging toward the car windscreen scraping and demanding Breaking Bad style recipes from SS for car windscreen washers..