lorenzo

Only 6 days to go Damian, plus a bucket load of ACE in the post... lots of weather to look forward to

The fun continues, a little bit of evidence now that a database I have been working on seems to do the trick. Here are the MJO plots for October for Phase 5 Current Composite / New Database composite - represents a good match. New Composite in 'Map' form vs Polar View Finally with the amplitude filtered for the expected start of October, lesser amplitude in the MJO wave for phase 5 elongating the Arcitc heights and giving a less pronounced trough in our vicinity. So, perhaps what we may see as October begins and the MJO retreats towards it's base state.

As a couple of you know been trying to play around with analogs, and also get them into custom time series. Here are a couple of preliminary composites for October, based on similar positions of the GWO and MJO since 1974, these results are filtered down to lower AAM state, representative of the minimum westerly flow we are experiencing at present and also the MJO cycling in phase 6 for October. All Years since 1974 / Recent 5 years Bit of an experimental plot, so will see if it proves useful over time..

Apologies of posted already, this is pretty great..

Thanks MR, yes that elusive Canadian Warming, we were all over that in last years strat thread, it would seem it is very overdue.... 2012 November came and went and by that time the excitement was ridiculous about January. Now the fun part, to use the data to make some analogs..

Spent yesterday updating an excel sheet for analogs, as useful or useless as some may find them, still an interesting bunch of information and handy referral guide. Years on this are from 1950 til present. Includes ENSO, Sunspot Counts, NAO, AO, Berlin Strat Data - Major Warmings and Canadian Warmings. The filters are really useful as they let you select for example all Neutral ENSO years, or the Top NAO negative years etc etc. Also you can filter by colour of the cells if you wished to strip out all the Novembers where a Canadian Warming took place. Edit - Updated the settings to allow the filters to work. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Ah3v2E9FYXI5dFJiUmJHNWRYMndzZW9iWDlBNjFyS2c&usp=sharing

In the most recent guidance on the MJO plots, issued on the 16th, much was made of the propagation signal being scrambled somewhat by Tropical Cyclone Activity. The OLR predicted plot at 120 E bang on with this, Typhoon Usagi, right there. Only point here is the reduced amplitude and also the slower travel round the origin, eastward propagation, may be result of the West Pacific cyclone activity, ironically it also states MJO enhances West Pac Cyclone odds, and reduces Eat Pac odds. So although the plots run to around the 30th it may be a different set of analogs should the MJO get back on the move. Another one to watch !

The good lady puts the heating on, I wait til she isn't looking and turn the thermostat thing below the click thing. Chillier mornings here recently and its been put on to keep a 5 month old baby warm. Otherwise would have been happy to keep it off until October, nothing worse than a stuffy centrally heated house, stifling http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-24107609

Humberto delivering the fun ! Reforecast mean 150 -192 hrs Then what we have eyes on at the earlier timeframe The real anomaly is elsewhere.. out to the 27th.. Not wishing to thrown calm over the cracking ECM 144 'mean' just a quick look beyond and the future anomalies provided, that high arctic block signature hanging around.

Awaiting the latest MJO update due to be published this evening, last entry is 09/09, updates every Monday for those who don't look at this one. Still with the move from the origin point of the chart into low amplitude phase 5 and phase 6 analogs. Phase 5 / Phase 6 Phase 6 being one of the most bizarre offerings from MJO, led me to wonder about it's composition and thinking through the anomaly chart the components of the strong mid-atlantic ridge are on offer within the output along with the continued attempted Azores ridging, then to counter that the trough element, which is where the bizarre comes in with the pure N-S alignment, could be Phase 6 displays by the end pattern both elements merged out over a period of time. Put simply, I don't think we will see anything in NWP output representative of Phase 6 analog for September, but one can recognise why it is there as both features are heavily prevalent Looking at GWO , this is something I am still patiently waiting for an a+b=c guide on.. even having read Weickmann & Berry paper, I guess you just had to be there ! The latest profile is here, the blob of red indicating the jet firing up again in our region a stronger resurgence than the last few months as it awakens from slumber. ( compare with the full on meanderings of the Southern Hemisphere !) In addition, a little pulse of negative anomaly beginning to show at higher latitudes as we progress to Autumn. Jets / Torques On Mountain Torques, if anyone wants to decipher the divergence here then please do, trend is reduction in overall, with the weighting of the importance of the Asian Torque in evidence I guess during the Ed Berry era GP studied these as Berry's blog plotted in real time the atmospheric responses in wave pattern, sadly that information and that work in progress that led to the GWO is now fire walled. For now I can only observe the peaks and troughs and phases, not predict with 'thar she goes' clarity. Will hope to devote more time to this in future, but worth keeping active so others can do the same. As an side and looking at our Winter season ahead, I appreciate there is a Winter discussion thread going, however if anyone has thoughts on analog year, when why, this may be a good place to put them to save them getting lost in the rapidly filling threads. I picked 1990 last weak based purely on QBO wind data and the accelerated phase over the last 3 months, with 1990 being the only comparable years on the QBO.dat list. Ed quickly countered this due to the sun phases and rightly so, the solar max and assoc. energy of 1990 a completely different idea. Any thoughts..

Put these in the Winter thread NL, as one of the proposers of the thoughts about a Winter shift in cycles these anomaly charts may be of interest.. Increased cold anomaly very evident when you strip the last 4 years out and put them alongside all the years since the start of the century. Perhaps the massive anomalies of just the last few exceptional Winters overriding the climate average, perhaps something else. One wonders if another cold Winter this season, will again push this viewpoint forward... November December

Oh go on then, let's have one of these graphs. anyone want to plot the line for the next 6 months

Bit chillier out there today, and skies taking on a different look , definite an icy look to them recently. Heard the radio mention the countdown to windscreen scraping in the morning...magic. Will be good to see more regulars re-appear from the Summer Hibernation as the mercury teeters towards 0. Fascinating winter in prospect too, after last years SSW will we get another? Are we 'officially' in an 'unofficial' new cycle of colder Winters? Or is this a blip? Will Fort SS and Catch get all the snaw? Where will the Snaw shield be this year. Overnight temps creeping down tonight, think 4 degrees over the Cairngorms forecast. it's on the way..

Maybe SSW less likely, perhaps statistically improbable, but we do have other conundrums.. Overdue a Canadian warming.. unless last year the brief pre-cursor warming eventually got classified as one. As long as that Vortex is camped somewhere other than its North Western Canadian home spewing systems into the Atlantic then I will be happy, saying that the remnant piece of vortex that had dogged the met office gave some great snow off a direct hit Westerly when it eventually decided to depart. Had to dig for this image, beautiful cold stratospheric air creating a whip of convection, so a good tip for reminiscing or looking at winters past... If you click the My Media link whilst posting and select attachments you can find material posted from last Winter, or further back, if you have not got it saved or on a link anywhere. Re Post above, I found this slide useful if however inconclusive !

Excuse the incorrect labelling of these, began building them for earlier months and didn't change it to 2012 for the Winter months, can't be bothered going back and getting them again, so please ignore the typo. Should read 2012 rather than 2013, sadly the re-analysis data page doesn't see into the future. I liked the idea that many have put around about a shift into a colder cycle of winters, whether it be sun driven, or something of the mode mentioned by Cohen, there is body of evidence beginning to support this theme. SM posted a brilliant illustration of just that very change whereby the last 4 or 5 years in isolation demonstrates an anomaly shift whilst coming to the Cohen conclusion prior to the paper appearing so that's a definite theme. Looking at the same kind of idea and placing the last 4 years versus since the turn of the century provides this, and some stark differences. Below are November and December Anomalies, increasing cold anomaly in our back yard and also that Aleutian / Kamchatka ridge just blows up for December for the last 4 years chart. Not going to pretend I have a quick answer for this, just putting the charts up, but a ridge of that stature, should it become a regular occurrence will feed into polar vortex and enhance displacement perhaps even SSW odds, subsequent to SAI I think this is another area to keep an eye on.

Yep and this seems to be something the latest Cohen paper alludes to, the mode created via the Warm Arctic / Cold Continent set up increasing moisture, leading to greater Snow Advance SAI, leading to the negative AO. It almost puts ENSO vs AO. - things continue to get more interesting !

Great Vid, definite Hoolie in progress here, squally showers and leaves getting scattered.

Have not read the full paper yet, but what I have got so far is the storming correlation with negative AO. The loss of sea ice, a warm arctic, increasing available moisture, hence the huge SAI gains. Will be an important paper for Winter. Great finds Sebastiaan. It also throws a curveball at ENSO early in the paper, quite a lofty claim, seeking to assert that this 'mode' over-rides the classic driver in the tropics. Who is to say this is not right, esp if married with what we already see on FU Berlin from the Strat. monitoring. Inclined to partially agree, although a strong La Nina . El Nino stil has clear impact, will be interesting to compare in the next strong event. Nice chart time line of the Polar Cap heights also. This thread will certainly be one to watch as October unfolds..

It doesn't look too bad Catch, think I saw the aerial picture at the start of the race, made it look more minging than it is.Tomorrow afternoon looking lively, also like the fact that this low does the full drop right down into the continent by 144. Red Arrows looking great as ever.

Ha ha OTR , that is exactly what am about to get dragged round the shops to pick up and then get busy in the kitchen with. On the plus side...Must be Red Wine season too Oaft - Good Luck to those folks doing the GNR today, looks drookit !

Meteocentre plot not too far off your thoughts there John, like the link to the NDBC site, had to find a link for converting from inches ! Never knew buoys recorded the data like that, you learn something every day on Net Wx Latest from meteo page below. Looking at the Sat Imagery gives a good run through of how its gone the las 12 hrs. http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html Eumetsat page with the 00z data shows the cold red airmass on its way.. http://www.eumetrain.org/eport/euro_00.php?width=1366&height=768&date=2013091500&region=euro Breezy, constant rain winds moderate at times, enough to give the foliage a good shake..

Solid grey and white skies here ,steady rain and a light to moderate wind. Enough to make the trees in full foliage sound awesome.

Some active weather on the way... Beats watching the drivel my daughter is watching on TV, latest obsession is Catfish. Total mince ! Nice video here from Jo detailing the predicted impact areas. The focus on the air mass changes mentioned in the Meto vid earlier in the thread really clear on the NMM runs as Sunday progresses. Afternoon fax has this one at 966mb, to a fairly quick drop, not a really huge bomb laden with sting jets but against the benign conditions which have prevailed for some time will feel like a step change to Autumn. With Humberto to follow.. cracker of a name that, lol ! Video Reel Here http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html

SS - proper quality. I hope you have employed Scorcese this year to track the tyre adventures. PS Remember to include further French Expletives the residents liked that !

Fond memories of this one. Football match abandoned. Car Journey home abandoned.An absolute pasting of snow for North East Scotland. Power Cuts, Blizzards, everything..everything..