lorenzo

Another good post on this blog, examining Geopotential Height Anomalies over time, reference of interest the discussion of the pattern since 2007 onwards. http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/siberian-and-greenland-geopotential.html

http://www.rmets.org/events/madden-julian-oscillation-and-its-importance-medium-range-forecasting If I can get organised will head along to this to find out some more about what ECMWF are planning.

6-7 feet BUS !!! Where are you going to be staying - Fort SS or Fort Catch !

Nice to see Wave 1 Activity present and ridges popping up throughout the day to day runs, currently the NW Pacific and Alaskan Ridge doing the business here. Brought this paper to mind which is relevant, lifted from the teleconnection paper thread, another feedback to consider and look out for. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jgrd.50289/abstract

Vortex off on it's travels, map of the core low heights at 30hpa https://mapsengine.google.com/map/edit?mid=zxmSRTLk6qjA.kxuYmNkEhXn0

Was a great post, not a waste of time at all !

Nice work BFTV - hats off to you for grinding through the CFS Data and making it more meaningful. Look forward to further updates.

With the vortex where it is continued interest in the Snow Advance with respect to a Siberian High establishing. These for days 5 and 10. ECM Mean and Det. different with the heights over Greenland, and reminds us of Chionos all that glitters post a couple of days ago when looking at Anomaly output. Postage stamps worth a check. Nice post about the Jet patterns Steve, again also annoyed by the re-analysis suite being busted, a right nuisance..!

News is only news if you have watched it HC, so don't feel like that. Super Cyclone Phailin , Indian Ocean bearing down on Andhra Pradesh. CAT 5 system. Thread here - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78097-very-severe-tropical-cyclone-phailin/ Raw Satellite data shows the central pressure of the system bombing over the last couple of days. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/2013/adt/text/PHAILIN_N-list.txt Where weather gets deadly serious. 64,000 folks being evacuated at present. https://twitter.com/search?q=%23Phailin&src=hash&f=realtime

18z GFS looking sensible so far......

Some Twitter updates.. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/cool_stuff/cool_stuffjava5.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_scale Animation Eumetsat via Weatherbell http://models.weatherbell.com/news/phailin_animation.gif Links profile from G+ https://plus.google.com/112783730111557040349/posts/DpJfrxteRLA Mind Boggling system.

Nice Post BUS, great imagery, going to 'borrow' that one of the Cairngorms. Welcome along Aberfeldy ! Not spied you posting beofre - good to have you visit our thread ! This is just a freakish Sat estimate now, was watching this last night and it bottomed out at 910 before moving to 917 this morning. Now another Bomb phase. Unreal, sadly DEC - Disasters Emergency Committee area of devastation. This potentially is on par, if not worse than the impact of Katrina 50-60ft storm surge.. It is on par with the Moore Tornado earlier this year where the fascination with severe weather is marred by a grim reality, stunning synoptics.

Vortex tries to set off on it's travels this morning on GFS, only to be met with a 1045mb Arctic High fed from a monster Aleutian Ridge, pumping 4 degree 850hpa temps up there. Jet still south, with hints of it kicking up a bit again on the Pacific side. Hints that the vortex wants to move from Siberian home to the usual place we don't like to see it, over Greenland, on GEM, lots going on here, the Greenland block stubbornly holding on, a lively feature in the Atlantic, and generally plenty of trough solutions around the Northern Hemisphere. The GEM run is an interesting watch as the twin lows slowly ebb Eastward, before combining to form one low parked over the UK on a slow SSW - NNE path. Right in the queue behind an extratropical feature looking purposeful for a direct hit towards the end of October. Interesting model watch coming up as hints of the Atlantic getting if not livelier a little more influential, versus the Blocking looking more stubborn than usual and prevalent at higher latitudes.

Twitter wakening up now and more and more posts going up instantly. Dr Maue comparing intensity to Katrina and storm surge will be devastating. The size of this system on that global satellite image is unreal.

Steve, how on earth did you manage to find an identical chart from 133 years ago !! El Nino and La Nina create a different atmospheric base and both winters where there are strong events have different impacts on the NH background states. Neutral as AWD less so. Last Winter a paper published quoted this extract relating to El Nino types with a Central Pacific Nino correlating with a Negative NAO. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JD016493/abstract 1] This study contributes to the discussion on possible effects of El Niño on North Atlantic/European regional climates. We use NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to show how the two different types of El Niños (the central Pacific, or CP, and the east Pacific, or EP) result in remarkably different European winter temperature anomalies, specifically weak warming during EP and significant cooling during CP El Niños, the latter being associated with a negative phase of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our results diverge from former suggestions addressing the weakened stratospheric polar vortex as the dominant factor contributing to the El Niño/NAO teleconnection. We propose a tropospheric bridge as the mechanism primarily responsible for the establishment of a negative NAO phase and of associated cold European winters. This mechanism includes the subtropical jet (STJ) waveguide being activated only during CP El Niños, when anomalous convective heating occurs near the edge of the Pacific warm pool. Under these conditions the STJ is enhanced by planetary wave flux divergence in the subtropical upper troposphere, providing favorable conditions for the propagation of a wave number 5 disturbance around the subtropical Northern Hemisphere. This wave contributes to weakening of the Azores High and, hence, to the negative NAO phase. As global warming scenarios project an increase in the frequency of CP El Niño events, the distinctive nature of this mechanism implies that the probability of cold European winters may increase as well in future decades.

Thanks radiohead. Still 910.7. 70.8 mb drop in 24 hrs, 2200 - 2200 10/10. Massive Bomb.

Where can you see the ADT information Radiohead, do you have a link for that?

Very cold today, gave blood this afternoon, even colder after.. Nice clear night and snow marching across the Continent. Popped this in the model thread too, rude not to share as I know some of you tend to avoid the madhouse at times..

Stunning Day 10 chart from ECM, here is the CMC outlook for snow accumulation over that period should something similar verify. Consistent gains between 72 and 144 hrs also evident on this run. Have not been able to check properly, did the Canadian model get upgraded recently to increase resolution towards being on a par with the ECM, anyone know?

That is a devastating system, completely echo the thoughts there SS really hope they have taken warnings seriously.

Very bright at points today , blustery, blue skies and brilliant sunshine. Nice view on Satrep from the 0900 report with the Cold Front traversing the country on the jet axis. Eumetsat shows the Cold Maritime Airmass piling down from the Arctic. (Cold represents the Red Colour in this Image with the warmer airmass Greens and Yellows). The Beeb ran a story on UK airmasses over the weekend with a useful graphic, rPm - returning Polar Maritime excluded, so have attached the Meto document which may be of interest. No._10_-_Air_Masses_and_Weather_Fronts.pdf Higher resolution image from earlier today shows the classic pepperpot convection. Fax out to 0600 Thursday, the high neatly compacted to the west and ruler straight Isobars down the East Coast Brrrr

Welcome back Recretos.

They are available on weatherbell Sebastiaan. It is a subscription based site.

A complete autopsy on Vortex Displacement and splits. Last paper I saw on this was nowhere near as in depth. The main dates table is updated and has doubled in size, also some interesting loading H5 patterns for both event types. http://www.nwra.com/resumes/baldwin/pubs/mitchell2013_jclim.pdf