lorenzo

From the 01st October and 22nd October. Lifted from this Index. ftp://140.90.213.161/autosnow/4kmNH/ As Yarmy points out, thereby the days before.

After some tropical overnight temps, it has finally stopped raining and the yellow orb thing is attempting to put in an appearance. Balmy October weather and steady downpours late into the evening last night. Eventually clearing.. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=200912201800&VAR=prec&HH=30&ZOOM=1&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&PANEL=0&LOOP=1&INFO=0

Quick Gif for October with the 60 line denoted. http://gifmaker.me/PlayFrameAnimation.php?folder=2013102207xXFZ1V7rMLGlDkBoNN2Pgl Along with monitoring this and the OPI - October Pattern Index, certainly adds another dimension to watching the season unfold to determine how much truth is in the theory..

With respect to SSTA's around Greenland, had a quick trawl on Weatherbell for these maps for folk to nosey through and compare. Initial glance for this year echoes 2006, but you could argue for a couple of the other years too. 2010 the monster exception and just astounding, of course led to the black hole anomaly charts and also the excellent NASA article on Blocking. Again, it would seem we are already on the search for the Holy Grail Greenland Block, including this image as there are many newer folks on this thread and this visual explains clearly the influence. Fact remains this was a massive exception and expectations/ comparisons continue to be based around this year which of course makes things altogether more complicated. 2006 / 2007 / 2008 2009 / 2010 / 2011 2012 / 2013

This is a good link http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/wmovl/vrl/tutorials/satmanu-eumetsat/satmanu/cms/racy/index.htm Edit - posted before finished typing, gives good information on cyclogenesis of these tye of events. Also wiki. has good links on European windstorms tracking the notable ones. This site uses real time imagery and the latest model run in overlay and provides amazing imagery for these type of storms. http://eumetrain.org/eport/euro_06.php?width=1366&height=768&date=2012122906&region=euro

I liked this quote towards the end as it highlights we are into a new ballpark so to speak with respect to how Winter has behaved over the last 20 years or so. Cohen's study took things back to probabilistic forecasting, it would seem that the dynamical models whilst capturing for example the prediction for ENSO well, are less useful elsewhere. Much more probabilistic slant, highlighting the full range of possible solutions, placing these in the context of climatology, and in particular in the context of the recent past. Also that 'Drivers of Predictability' screen used in conjunction with ECMWF is brilliant. Info on Glosea5 here http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/user-guide/technical-glosea5

Not raking Ian, just directing others towards the explanation given to provide some context. It was a helluva debate at the time.

If anyone wants a detailed explanation regarding this debate look here. A little superficial to just say it was the Pacific Jet when this explanation details more clearly the broader pattern.

Half ( Perhaps all...) of Scottish Regional Thread want extreme weather emergency !!! There are some B - Bag type charts on tonights GFS Run, ECM being rather more sensible about things at present.. Will be an interesting countdown to Halloween..

ECM a much calmer solution than the rampant GFS 12z. GEM explosive again, also noticed it's tendency to crank up Lows with continued regularity, jet profile below. ECM ensemble map will be worth a look this evening to see how many clusters are in there.

Here is another useful link on Waves. Thanks to Nick Sussex for this from last Winter, when everyone was debating about shortwaves, wouldn't be Winter without a shortwave drama. http://www.wxonline.info/topics/waves.html

October determined to go out with some ferocity on the GFS 12z which someone seems to have poured a can of Red Bull in at initiation. Vicious looking low appearing across the ensembles, even the mean would be more active than what we are used to at present. Mean Wild jet profile also visible in the suite. For example this 300km/h rocket. UKMO looking poised also, over to the ECM to see what it makes of things..

Fantastic post forecaster, very useful explanation that will be of benefit to many.

Evening All - still drookit, particularly earlier this evening when it reached drooned rat status. A little milder now and a fine moon. October not the same as always with no frosts. Perhaps we will pay for that much later in Winter too....

Great link - had good fun playing around on that site ! Sunday image courtesy of post on amwx.

The meeting was very good, a clear and concise presentation on the MJO, spilt into 2 sections. First was the history of how Madden & Julian first discovered the MJO, the cycle, the impact across the tropics, essentially explaining what the MJO is and what it does. Second half focused on the impact to the North Hemisphere and cited the Cassou paper published in Nature in 2008, before going on to discuss the issues within the ECMWF model resolving the MJO activity, tracking from 2005 to date model improvements including the recent improvements to how it views convection. I hope to obtain a copy of the presentation so I can add it here. Will let you know as soon as I get an update. Having watched the MJO impact over winter for a few years now I was generally taken aback by how little known this cycle is among the general audience at the meeting.

Atlantic washing machine inbound.... Pity, as everything looked glorious out West to start the day. Forecast - Drookit, looks like Fife gets the bulk of the rainfall sustained from around 1600 - 2100.

Welcome along to the forum Vorticity and thanks for the link, great satellite loop included in that story. https://www.e-education.psu.edu/worldofweather/files/worldofweather/SAL-6hrs-Aug23Sep05.gif Don't worry about grammar at all - hope you find plenty here to keep you occupied. If you can add your location to your profile, something we usually ask new folks to do that would be great.

Great Result for Scotland V Croatia. (will just ignore the fact it was a meaningless fixture..) Team have definitely moved forward. Nice find Cheggers, amazing pic. Hopefully Comet ISON survives it's sun grazing and produces a great show for Winter, ISS also on a very bright pass tonight. Feeling much colder this evening under clear skies. MJO lecture was informative and hopefully will get sent a copy to share on here, not too much insight into Winter 13/14 though, more along the lines of this is what we can see it does in European Winter and also looking at how they are trying to improve it's representation within the ECM model. Atlantic gearing up to the 'actually being there' phase versus completely dormant. Should provide some interest via good radar and satellite watching. Nothing as spectacular as this thankfully though.. Typhoon Wipha. Oshima has received 22.7 Inches of rain http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/typhoon-wipha-aims-to-batter-t/18839653 Edit - Ian Fergusson â€@fergieweather 12m "@metofficestorms: Typhoon #Wipha drenching southern Japan. 788mm (31") rain in the last 18 hours on Oshima island south of Tokyo." Back home Loch Morlich looking bonny but very eery today from this Pic on the Fbook page.

Interesting article in relation to dust and the impact on the storm season, relates back to early 80s dry period and hints at another atmospheric cycle being present, which as yet is not understood. http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/broward/fl-african-dust-outbreaks-20131014,0,1753512.story

Hi SS, good to find you in Twitter world. Nice website too. The meeting is this evening, this caught my interest with respect to the influence of the MJO in Winter. On the more technical side the influence of the coupling within the ECMWF model and how they are currently resolving this is also of interest. http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/guide/Downstream_spread_of_influence.html http://www.ecmwf.int/research/monthly_forecasting/mofc-des.html http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/seasonal/documentation/system3/ch2.html Edit - when I was at Uni. it was all hand written notes, guess it is IPADS and tablets these days. Will type stuff into my phone I reckon or maybe an old fashioned notebook and pen !

Typhoon Wipha does a recurve as explained in some great detail here . Net result is that over the course of the 10 day period North Pacific Ridge of some strength is reinforced, looks similar to the Kamchatka Peninsula feature from last year, and the troughing in the Aleutians develops. Potentially more wave activity to follow then and more disruption to the vortex as it starts it's winter engines.

This Typhoon getting some interest on the American site wrt. the pattern change developing. Great thread here on the recurve of the feature and the strengthening of the NW Pacific ridge as a result. Also looking at models this morning another one on track behind it to reinforce the same pattern. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41395-typhoon-wipha-and-a-major-north-america-pattern-change/

Heading along to this in Edinburgh tomorrow to find out the latest information on how the MJO is being used by the ECMWF folks with respect to medium range forecasting. Will report back if I manage to glean anything about the forthcoming Winter.. http://www.rmets.org/events/madden-julian-oscillation-and-its-importance-medium-range-forecasting

Here's to another great season (with no Polar Vortex remnants trailing about in the Atlantic again !). What looked like a month or two ago for a SSW to be a statistical improbability, and thinking that we are due a cold and vortexy Winter, things this season have echoes of last year and the SAI and Siberian High potential have ramped things up somewhat. Hopefully another season of the vortex finding setting up home problematic and providing us all with some great model watching. The best thing about this thread is that it is one of the best learning threads on any weather forum around, so much new material and 5 months to watch it all play out.