lorenzo

@Quinach 100% agree on the lamps re: Lamp Post Watching. Feels like an art form has been lost or brutally amended.

Here is what 'Snog' looks like up close after drifting down to surface.

Have never seen a Parhelion here before, also ice crystals in the atmosphere - totally surreal stuff!

Precipitation - Blue rain / Red Snow as viewed by the UK Model this morning out to next Monday.

Another brilliant bright freezing day. Had to laugh at the built in weather app with it's 'Partly Cloudy' suggestion. Where?? Perfect weather for getting out for a nice walk and into some low sun. Still a good few days to go before the breakdown, the EC Plume this morning on Op / Control advertising something close to a 20 degree increase by 19th December which is pretty wild. A good model watch ahead for how this eventually breaks down and whether our own cold pool serves up snowmaggedon somewhere.. forgot to mention this great Sat Image of a PL off the Norwegian Coast.

A nice surprise to start Saturday, and of course the good lady's first words were - well, did you expect that - you never said. Looks like the Firth aiding convection and giving this feature a little more punch as it rotates through. Lovely to see first snow of the winter for here make everything feel festive for the weekend & the wildlife enjoyed a snowy breakfast too! PXL_20221210_085205984~4.mp4 PXL_20221210_085333441.mp4 Speaking of breakfast - time to get the breakfast M'BAPpe's on - Allez les Bleu

Magic Satellite image of the flow here

Looks like GFS has delayed the timing of the arrival of the trough from the projected time on the early morning Fax. 1200 - 1800 - 2100 The view from Arpege and NMM Aberdeenshire the place to be clearly ! Also a -14 on there as the run rolls through - how low can it go?

Why would we delete this? Presume it is something military being transported under heavily armed guard which has now reached wherever it was going?

Enjoyed the Siberia Action on this run, the pacific conduit lighting up

LOL

Crikey - another bookmark to add there then ! I can't keep up - bring back the days when the only morsel of detail we had was one of these ! Am kidding obvs, amazing amount of data now. The weekly post-xmas is of interest, the u progression as much as not definitive SSW is not definitive in the other direction either. No classical VI here. And, we have the MJO trend which will be subject of some amount of churn for I think at least until the next weekly run. Lots to factor in for the West Pacific on the rebound from the -EAMT, GFS and GEFS vs ECM always gives us classic model divergence and given the new GFS isn't exactly going down a tropical storm then would expect this to be exacerbated this year. That's all way ahead for now. So, back to how long the cold entrenches, fax charts and polar low spotting! Enjoy the cold and hopefully some of the white stuff too if you are in the right spot. As a PS - for those looking for the top-down signatures for SSW - check the NetWx GFS with the 1hPa addition today - could prove really helpful given other sites are off-line this season.

Incoming- that's a bone chiller.

Usual winter monitoring tools assessment - likely frozen shut - a possibility depending on ninja troughs in the flow

Laughs in Scottish..

Just plundering Twitter again HC, don't think these are in public domain.

02 December and this lot inbound, zero complaints whatsoever !

Just for fun - picking through the EC Ensembles.. new favourite thing to do in this set up !

Wouldn't worry too much about the MJO...

The 1 hPa temp one is over on the other site, not heights. I have asked Paul to see if the GFS viewer here has it available. Update - Watch this space..

Loads of blocking, the Atlantic seemingly dead as we approach the end of November and start of Winter proper, such a refreshing change from previous winters. Decent downward trends evident on 850hPa temps and also T2M temps, with reasonable model alignment gathering too. The EC Ensembles being visible on Meteociel lifts the lid on what's in 51 Ens box so to speak, and you find crazy delights such as this. A Good spot from EasternScotlandWx on Twitter earlier. This P3 chart the coldest of the 850hPa solutions finding their way to our shores, not a forecast strictly for fun. Think we would be digging our way out of this lot and many similar solutions within. On the NH view you can see the Trop Vortex receiving the old one - two via the Alaskan Ridge and more importantly the retrograde Greenland Block, this uppercut is one that is very rare given we are within the classic period where it usually intensifies. That is still happening but much further aloft, and given the blocking at sensible levels where the weather is determined creates a lot of opportunity for colder solutions. Not without peril in terms of how the low pressure around Azores / Iberia behaves - but the overall trends are good. Looking farther ahead this level of blocking sets the stage for potential SSW into the New Year, and also ahead of this the MJO becoming active and emerging to traverse the the Western Pacific will hopefully create enough action to reinvigorate the existing blocking regime, again aiding further perturbance to the vortex. Cat on a hot tin tropospheric roof. Great weather for being out walking !

It just popped up onto Twitter feed Nick - if only !

Awful outlook really..

Not at all and it's a great call out. Parallel is on the other side of the envelope, given the prior trends and clusters a rebound to the chart below would represent quite a coup. Ens will be worth a look.