lorenzo

GFS going all in... we might be at this for some time..

Last blob passing through had some proper 'cornflake' flakes mixed in - vs the polystyrene stuff from earlier as per pic. Also just sent these from a friend out at the Eastern end of the Ochils, 450m ASL. That's a 4 foot high fence post..

Things bubbling along nicely in the North Sea... have a nosey at what's in the queue on the 125m image

A good few blobs and that soon to be convergence zone setting up like a firehose of snow..

Some inspiration from the Netherlands...

Tremendous performance, glorious failure avoided - nice !

06z going gung ho with the Scandi solution and 1060hPa kicking in !

Cold Block = Models Fried - they hate them.

Let's get Bob Ross - Bob Rossing some of the real Bob Ross stuff...

It's a good watch LS in terms of the what happens next with the Scandi. evolution. Looking at the EC from last night's 12z that idea gaining some ground in comparison on the 12z, you can see the difference across the Atlantic UKMO dissipating with the GFS energetic as per usual.

Hello 528

Not sure on that solution yet Norrance, the LP could blow up in situe in Atlantic and the create some ridging in our locale. Plenty of time to see how that wave break develops ahead of then...

SS oot for a drive...

Definitely! One of my favourite views on satellite once things get going, and the following the 'blobs' in on radar and then lamp-post..

Top right.. we see you Beastie..

Mild - what is this mild you speak of?

Nice Tight Isobars on EC 96..

Winter Watch back on the TV for a slice of chill and the sleety mess has now progressed to steady snaw. Magic !

Charts located here Data Services ACD-EXT.GSFC.NASA.GOV Available annual Meteorological data Also tend to see this one a lot in various places.. Climate System Monitoring / TCC DS.DATA.JMA.GO.JP Climate System Monitoring / TCC

12z Friday is one staging point then looking 'above' via strat plots this is really progressive from the 18z, not progressive as in it's the pub run doing outlier stuff, but more to okay what is is seeing as the NPAC takes effect. Friday 12z was the date I had pencilled for some 'settling' of the immediate SSW dynamics, then Tuesday - Thursday next week ( see strat thread gifs) for further ahead. The adage of compare 00z to 00z and 12z to 12z I get, but as we exit the initial chaos of the SSW each run heralds clues. The model watching folklore shout out I would call this week is the what the 00z takes away the 12z gives back ( whether this is due to the 12z being the fullest suite of data for NWP delivery - not sure). All in - patience folks - we have been served an SSW on top of some great blocking teasing things, we know SSWs main artefact is dissipation of cold and sticking to that evolution will temper help - hell we all want a holy grail 09 instant response, but lets just watch this play out. Think of it as you pressed play on the next run coming out, but you are watching it at 50% speed..

The GIFS I posted above hopefully help a little in terms of what is being modelled currently, I wish I had all the answers ! The Berlin GIF above shows the core of the vortex shifting to the Siberian side at 10hPa and in doing so it becomes coherent again, interesting dynamics as it is almost magnetic in absorbing the Greenland Daughter Vortice, in doing so this whips across the Atlantic. Thereafter, the US side of the hemisphere appears drained of core vorticity. Granted this is higher up in the strat and a longer term direction of travel, also how does this imprint into the troposphere remains a question. Then the other GIFs further down, see the hPa labels show just how chaotic this process is in terms of that same transition, the energy which has vacated the Greenland locale at 10hPa is still 'active'. Hence, the singular slide for Tuesday where it would appear wave breaking maxes out. This makes working out what is next massively difficult and will defer to experts on Twitter for views here in terms of latent impacts. D10 @ 10hPa D10 @ 50hPa D10 @ 100hPa Berlin / d 5/7/10 @ 250hPa NASA The last series is clearly quite chaotic as energy transfers beneath the block and we can see the alignment somewhat in the NWP model output. If the longer direction of travel is for a picture to develop where we see the 10hPa and 50hPa profiles eventually imprint on the troposphere, well - one can imagine. A big avenue for a block and a mass of cold to tap into. The vortex regrouping at 10hPa as per above will also account for the reasonable / strong recovery in u wind which some may look at to say, oh well that's the SSW done with. Here is the warming profile and zonal wind profile vs deviation from previous 60 day mean, and I think they show the 'slow-motion' transfer down the column of the SSW. Looking at all things considered, the daughter vortice - it's disruption, how quickly the energy transfers to the larger vortex are a great example of why it's all a good watch as another 'flavour' of SSW unwinds. We know to expect volatility in output and hopefully the above kind of outlines why to some extent. Hopefully some others can join in to add further insights. It is a monster W1 and remain hopeful we will still be seeing impacts lagged for some time. Right now in conclusion it is just too difficult to call with certainty. It's a new SSW and still learning from it.

STEALTH Thunder Cows... Exceptional !

Thunder Cows. Nice !