lorenzo

This trajectory fires up this low, much deeper than 12z indicating 18z progressive run possibly vs Ens.

Minds greater than mine help me out with models and here we see the East Pacific trough get really sharp at day 6 Results positively for -NAO development - we don't have a jet marching through vs the retrogression - things are slowed up. Did not expect to see it flat line south however as per 18z - The Jet stream.

18z vs 12z - Just, I don't even know at this point what is happening here..

Keep up the good work KW - you are all over this just now - great to see

Blocking galore - but what will it eventually deliver. Been a while since anomalies like below have given the Atlantic some food for thought, this at 192 isn't in the far reaches of reality either. Some patience needed as lots of modelling to get through yet - so easy to see things in fast forward mode when looking for things to fall into place. UKMO is encouraging Just the small matter of getting that massive chunk of TPV to take the journey from Asia to Europe - something the GFS thinks about in the later frames - to really see Europe into the Freezer. It's bittersweet chart watching, the hunt for cold is enjoyable, but the realities in terms of costs of living / energy demands do temper things this winter.

Some 12z are still okay though - plenty of ups and downs and variations on themes in next few days. Boom and Bust modelling within Operational Runs.

06z continues being utterly insane as ever.

Very nice trend on EC, Op catching up with the control from last evening. May even see one of these outlier Meteociel Anoms over Greenland on the 12z or perhaps it's a proper Black Friday in Nuuk on tomorrow 00z.

Interesting times for the vortex, and as Blue states above the FWIW leaves the lower reaches open for interest. Couple of flat NASA plots to contextualise the impacts of the Scandi regime on the vortex, quite significant. Merra put the Momentum Flux into the record books in the 00z forecast run this morning, the much maligned CFS u product has caught a glimpse of SSW leanings before, and we now have reversal pixels into the New Year at the edge of the range, one to watch. Finally an animation from 84/85 which I can see from H5 reanalysis posted on Twitter has been a pretty solid analog across Nov, and it's a good vid ! https://www.meteo.physik.uni-muenchen.de/~Thomas.Birner/SSW-animations/anim-PV/1984-1985_530K/loop.html Best modelling watch for many a year..

You can get anything on Amazon Prime in the North-East these days !

Ha ! Yes Snoozi - TOORP and TOORPing I think will always be a thing.. the GFS being spewed out 4 times a day and 2 of those not being very good makes TOORP a certainly. Am not sure who is credited with inventing the phrase possibly @LomondSnowstorm

Wow - some incredible images, so surreal to see the A90 like that and Ballater video shows the deluge well. In Auld Reekie folks still confuse normal cars with Bond Cars.