lorenzo

Feeling a bit chillier today than the recent balmy craziness.. EC firing out some day 8 and 10 chart chasing opportunities via decent trough disruption this evening. The eventual slide all the way into the depths of Italy would be a pattern many would like to see repeated across Winter.

Arpege snowfall looks great - am gut wrenched by Eunice. Societal fatigue about responding adequately to anything anyone in supposed authority worries me i.e folks just wont do it.

This is the fun point... Opens up a world of slider activity GFS Op just can't behave...

Great read Nick - well written and researched forecast, a great analysis of the drivers in play. Good luck !

Let's have a look at the beastie in HD !

A few more satellite images, the real colour one is 250 metres and a huge image. From here https://wvs.earthdata.nasa.gov/ The others from the very cool Eumetrain ePort site. http://eumetrain.org/ePort_MapViewer/index.html Couple of cool interfaces on there and loads of variables you can overlay. Crazy to see a red warning, really rare.

This years prediction competition is up and running in the Twittersphere. 10 part tweet thread from Daniela Domeisen here contains lots of great detail.

Given the upcoming cold developments thought this thread would be more suited to a slower paced post.. First off the a caveat - Physical Sciences Laboratory have stymied some composite activity as : Change: The ability to use your own http address for custom files is no longer supported due to security restrictions. This is frustrating as the daily composites allow a little more precision than using the months where variables are suitably in range. If anyone knows of a similar portal that accepts an ftp transfer of a date.txt file to render a composite - please drop me a note! Looking at existing variable and considering the NAO- in the immediacy - sought to examine the pre 2000 and post 2000 eQBO / Nina base state, then layer in MJO loosely for P4/5 for a review. The pre and post yr. 2000 composites are below, clearly some differences last century. These conditions are then rolled forward for the dates used to extrapolate - where we might head next.. Not strat. related I hear you say.. okay so based on the years in question which built the composites, I think the lead would be for a February SSW. That being said right in the midst of the February action we have this odd season where things doubled up via a displacement and a split View the action here for December - Displacement ECMWF Analyses WWW.METEO.PHYSIK.UNI-MUENCHEN.DE And here for February - Split ECMWF Analyses WWW.METEO.PHYSIK.UNI-MUENCHEN.DE November composites for months featuring since 2000 in the original daily set for later comparison to where this November finishes. An exciting start to the season, having watched many animations the Greenland Block is nearly always the one that tips the balance and creates the most chaotic solutions / eventually knocks the strat off it's perch. Will be intriguing to watch how this plays into vortex development from here...

Just needs the touch paper lit...

Lovely heavy skies here - just needs some ignition!

Plenty of stuff brewing out there now ?️

Also heard lots of Geese this morning, something really cool about hearing and seeing them. Definitely a sound that connects to memories and late Autumn / Winter.

Plastered again overnight , magic !

Oh my, 21 pages of posts since last logging in. I think Easterlies have strong r with Scottish Regional posts. Great Effort, and easily the best selection of pictures and videos around to represent things.

Work later today ..

Hmmm

Not sure why some of these embed and some attach? Either way tremendous full on Beasterly action there...!

Got permission to share this one from the UKV, snow totals out to Wednesday Evening. Good to have the UKV model to review along with the other Hi Res output.. really good close up view of things so will happily shamelessly plug that it is available on Net Weather Extra. The 03z and 15z runs go out to 120 hours, with 00z, 06z, 09z, 12z, 18z and 21z runs which go out to 54 hours. 12z and 15z from today below..

Okay - that's more like it ?️?️ VID_20210208_175210.mp4

So this is what 'I am Groot' - twig / tree - you name it wants to do until Mid-Day tomorrow according to Fax.. Then on radar - it is an interesting one... definitely a split there and cells seeming all for hand brake turns and veering wherever they wish.. I think the Amber area is fair tbh and somewhere could get absolutely pasted if we turn more from the Polystyrene stuff to snow proper. Given what's out there... and intensity firing up a gear - I see reds sneaking in.. time for some sferics perhaps? Lovely view of the UK and the one to watch PL candidate still sneaking about on the Weds. Fax..

Keep on coming...

Spot on Ben.. got it in one. Meanwhile on the ECM by next Monday we get a lower latitude Scandi High... Not to worry, it's soon off on it's travels, definitely something to keep watching. Real deal Easterly still firmly in the mix.

Don't try this at home... !