lorenzo

Couple of gifs looking through the layers.. vortex vacates one side of the globe on the Berlin view at D10.. Lower down we can see the current chaos playing out around Greenland. Still of Day 7 looks the most dynamic in the 380K loop... lots of fun still ahead resolving this lot !

It's been a strange one today, it's not rain - then it is rain. It's then freezing rain, then sleet, then some graupel, then some Ice Pellets. Complete mash up on radar just now.. few pink areas beginning to develop across the borders.

Brilliant TY ! That's them

It's grey, and been raining here, then a little bit of graupel. Then this odd stuff which appears to be transparent / translucent hail? Never seen anything like it before, close up it looks like plastic micro-bead stuff. Very odd?? Anyone got any ideas - is it a freezing rain type?

Yes, normally but now we are on the cusp of the models beginning to get a handle on huge dynamics brought around by the SSW. These are throw the cards up in the air ( warmly) events... This shows the variation in temperature vs previous means and we can see clearly where we are currently vs projected disruption, the 06z GFS also delivered an AO cranking in at -6SD, totally agree the Pub Run is fun and games, this time it is probably on the envelope of what could coherently lie ahead.. Initial chaos may smooth towards Friday and things become clearer. Models just are not up for dealing with these dynamics and this is why patience is required, there is no golden x =y in strat warming events, there are some clues of good connection to trop. impacts as I see it from tweets by Hannah Attard ( further coupling exists) and Amy Butler ( where does the vortex energy split), this is probably the best week of model watching anyone can examine for many a year. What we do know is that this is a significant SSW and the effects / artefacts will be felt for some time. This for me is the watch point - the nuances in the break 5 days - literally every model has varying degrees on how it sees this, manifests lows, manifests phasing etc. That aside and longer term we do have our old winter wild card the MJO waiting in the wings to enter stage right and continue to reshuffle the deck.

Wave guide example at 162 here it comes again...

The wave guide for the strat filaments has been well advertised - still a lot to resolve here Do we get the streamer filament at day 4/5, does it wrap as per second frame...

Look at that Greenland anomaly and powerball..!

Does this chart worked up by Simon Lee help answer perhaps..

Steady Snaw this morning SL_MO_VID_20201231_093842.mp4

Arctic floodgates opening....

Yes Ben - spot on Eliburn Reservoir, am really lucky that it's literally 5 minutes away !

Great to get out and about today, some great scenery & skies. Sunset was magical too.. Last pic is very appropriate !

Please try and stick to discussing what's actually on the charts, use the report button if you see something that doesn't fit the thread title - rather than the endless quoting of a post which becomes quite boring to read for everyone ! Thank you !

Winter wonderland out there

Sustained snow here

That is a strong possibility

Lifting from EC / Model thread, latest weeklies adding to the fun. It really is all going off this evening..

GO ON YE MIGHTY LAMP POST... You may be busy... ! WhatsApp Video 2020-12-28 at 19.59.08.mp4

Oh go on then... don't think anyone here would complain...

The filament at 120 > 156 really launches things at Greenland, last night 18z was similar.. General direction of travel reinforcing the blocking is there. A few different nuances ahead yet, that looks like a delicately poised solution.

So much to look at just now courtesy of that record breaking W1 monstering the vortex - looking forward to the 2020/21 seasonal loop of the entire process as I think it will show just how disruptive the North Atlantic Wave Breaking and Blocking is in terms of being that 'one catalyst;' that wreaks havoc on the vortex. A couple of the retro charts today.. remember when we had this view and little else Berlin view at 475K and the vortex getting mashed over to our side, again this was before we got superb resolution. 50hPa is my pick of the animations today as it's just so chaotic, the energy in the W1 driving from the Pacific side, the daughter vortice / filament dropping through Asia and of course the split structure. Then in our locale the action in the Atlantic and the reinforcing of the breaks feeding the blocking regimes. Tremendous viewing !

Newly installed light on my go to Lamp Post confirms SNAW !

Merry Xmas all - without a doubt the best season of model watching up until Xmas for many a year ( at least 10). So many great contributions, and lovely to see loads of folks showing new interest too. Pro Tip - Be Kind, you were all there once ! Hope you have an lovely Xmas - get a chance to relax, reflect, rest and recuperate Then - into January we have a tremendous bout of model watching ahead as the programmed SSW artefacts cascade into the modelling. Given our Trop Set up is tremendous, let's hope things fall good and double down on an already great season and keep us all chasing each run throughout Jan and beyond. Have a good one !