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Evening thunder

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Everything posted by Evening thunder

  1. Evening thunder
    Although there has been some ramping I think quite a bit of what I have seen has just been speculation/discussing, that's all my earlier post was aimed to be at least, speculation of a possible interesting weather event. I wouldn't want this thread to just be robotic emotionless 'this model shows this, that model shows that' and nothing else really. Although referring to some earlier posts, I wouldn't expect record breaking temps from the ECM, would probably need slightly longer and lighter winds for conditions to become more favourable near the surface, although a brief plume in June 2011 had people saying it wouldn't get into the 30's with not enough time for heat to build, and it reached 33C. Just for a speculative idea of temps if the ECM came off, it showed 32C in some places in the east at midday (Wunderground weather model maps), so could rise a few degrees higher by 4pm? The likes of the ECM may be outliers on the ensembles, but that's the latest operationals of the ECM, GFS and GEM all bringing 20c+ uppers over the UK, and possibly the UKMO too with a decent plume there though it could be slightly cooler. Has to be considered one of the potential outcomes, even if not considered 'likely' at this stage? Obviously there is lots going on before/after this in the models, though I don't really have time to look into that at this time so will leave it for others to correct it themselves if they feel there's an imbalance or one sided bias of posts in here.
  2. Evening thunder
    ECM goes bang.. Look at those uppers over the south and also down over France, if you look really closely there's a spot of 28C uppers near Bordeaux! (Edit: as shown by posts above too). The GEM also has 20+ uppers widely and even has them touching 24C in the SE! L Looks like the ECM might do that too if there was a t+174 chart.. UKMO also looks to go bang with a thundery very warm plume brought north by the developing low to our west Interesting potential for a (probably brief) plume of notably hot air to be drawn up from the south, the only other time I've seen 22C+ uppers over the UK in the archives is August 2003 when 22C uppers touched the south, and also maybe one or two other brief plumes in the past. A bit to far off to really be confident of this especially with this kind of set up, though we are in a possibly interesting pattern at the moment and interesting to see the potential. The GFS developes less of a plume than the other 3 models in this post this evening. This is quite a good pattern for me as tbh I would prefer a more changeable but warm flavour to the weather at times now, even better if next weeks plume comes off. Things need rain, and I have got my warm/hot dry fix now, time for some alternate interest or convective action.
  3. Evening thunder
    From the 00z to the 06z NAE we go from about 75mm to about 3mm rainfall accumulation here lol. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/07/26/basis00/ukuk/rsum/13072800_2600.gif (little purple dot just east of me is 75mm+) http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2013/07/26/basis06/ukuk/rsum/13072800_2606.gif (about 3mm) Shows how hard/complex forecasting rain especially that with forming shallow/thundery lows like this can be.
  4. Evening thunder
    Maybe in London (although they reached 26C today), but for many areas in west wales the average July max is below 20C http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/climate/exeter#?tab=climateMaps&region=wales Here it reached 23.7C (average 21C), and Exeter AP at least 24C, was certainly warm even by the coast on a local beach. Some days in the forecast are also likely to get to similarly 2-3C above average values in many places. Even on days that are average, an average max temp is a warmish one at this time of year in much of southern/central England at least If it was 2-3C below average you or others would certainly be cooling cool/fresh, so why can't we call this warm? Edit: the Met Office would call it warm in summer too: http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/54858-met-office-temperature-definitions/
  5. Evening thunder
    Here we had a weakish storm pass to the east late on the 21st - went to the coast locally at Sidmouth, mostly sheet lightning but 2 CG's. Tried to photograph lightning but got nothing decent. Then again we were grazed to the east early on the 23rd about 1-2am, quite infrequent lightning again (every minute or two at the most frequent probably) but some good bolts and manage to capture a few: Mostly distant or in the corner as not much lightning got closer: Quite pleased with the last one though as this is my first time I've got a decent and properly in focus lightning photo. Part of me thinks the image is maybe a bit dark as they were much brighter in reality, reading up on things I probably had the aperture a bit narrow for the lightnings distance, f/5 may have been better than f/8, Oh well got me in the mood for more and it's practice for next time, whenever that is this far west.
  6. Evening thunder
    Temp didn't get much below 16c in Cambridge last night, and likely to reach 25C today, so an above average day all round.
  7. Evening thunder
    Thanks for that yes I often look there but hadn't thought of it this time I too like a couple have mentioned think that it may weaken as it approaches land, though interestingly the Met Office forecast map shows some pretty heavy stuff in it still, so wouldn't be too surprised if something producing sefrics made it ashore somewhere.
  8. Evening thunder
    Yep interestingly whatever's just off the radar coverage is producing a reasonable number of sefrics:
  9. Evening thunder
    Hmm looks like I may have to drive east tonight if I want to see anything, some forecasts show things for my area, Like ESTOFEX or the Netweather storm forecast have us in level 1/slight risk. Some maps show something here while others like the Met Office rainfall map and the GFS I think, show everything further east. Not sure what to expect really..
  10. Evening thunder
    Some interesting altocumulus cloud formations passing over now, took these recently, maybe a good sign for some?
  11. Evening thunder
    My internet is back again for a bitWoah nice looking storms over France - but typically earlier some storms developed west of SW England and moved SE-NW, but these appear to be moving NE! lol
  12. Evening thunder
    oo that 2nd one looks interesting, just 20 miles further west please! mind you if things form around west Dorset that shouldn't be too out of reach as long as I see them coming. you may well be right, and that's true also for example sometimes it can be annoying if sea breezes or something stops storms forming near/over me with them a bit further inland, but you can get a better view of the CB structures from a distance sometimes (although we would still need them in the region not 100 miles away lol).
  13. Evening thunder
    Well as I thought would happen based on last nights other models, things have shifted further east.. even tonight's possible happenings were initially shown like they might effect me, but are now further east. Tuesday looks interesting for some, shame it might generally the east of the country now as that is a bit too far for me to go. I wanted to try a chase or get a chance to photograph lightning at last if we got a night storm near here, so it's rather annoying, especially as it may be now or never as far as storms in a hot plume type air mass go this summer.. I think that later next week and into the weekend's more 'thundery shower' days under the slack low or slack pressure gradient might be quite good compared to how they normally are, with quite warm air still in place perhaps. GFS shows this to some extent with relatively high CAPE, although most of the action again moves away from the SW with not much shown for me at the moment. I wonder if the warmer ground temps and (in some places) quite warm SST's could help things in places? Also have also been having problems with internet, but have some at times like now at least. Will probably be gone again later, until they send us a new router. You will probably be glad as you won't have to put up with my grumpy posts if we don't get anything near here!
  14. Evening thunder
    According to this map recent conditions have raised SST's to over 19c over a wide area west of Cornwall and South of Ireland: http://ghrsst-pp.metoffice.com/pages/latest_analysis/sst_monitor/ostia/sst_plot.html?i=34&j=2 with anomalies up to 4c above average there, and higher around some western coasts apparently! (link to anomaly plot below the map) Still some average to slightly below average areas in the Channel and southern North Sea, presumably left over from the colder anomalies in spring and where the surface has been mixed more.
  15. Evening thunder
    Indeed me too, this morning I was feeling a bit like that, but through the day I was feeling more optimistic with the GFS presenting things better on it's 06z and 12z run next week, but my hopes of the other models following to some degree weren't realised. I guess the ECM might still be good for some 'thundery showers' type days (perhaps more thundery in a warmer air mass) in central/northern/eastern parts after mid week but not the big storms like the GFS shows on Tuesday, and being IMBY the south west looks to be one of the least prone areas in both the plume and afterwards on the ECM etc. Not trying to be downbeat, I can be one of the most enthusiastic people about storms, just the models other than the GFS have left me a little more disapointed tbh. Obviously location effects my view and other peoples views. Would be nice if the ECM was wrong like it was with the speed of the breakdown before yesterday (wanted to keep the 15C+ uppers a few days longer) Edit: JMA does look better for places further west on Tuesday, not sure where this model ranks but think (not completely sure) I've heard the Met Office think relatively highly of it?
  16. Evening thunder
    Hmm what's the betting that a county beginning with L ends up with the best of any homegrowns.. lol It seems the GFS and higher res models based on it give us all the eye candy charts, but don't show us what most of the other models are showing. I hope the models trend towards the GFS but that doesn't seem too likely IMO given it's the GFS against the rest.. Of course there will still be storm chances with the ECM etc, just probably not so good and I must admit I'd be a little disappointed if it ends up less good and in the east.. The Met Office forecast gives me hope though (but this was written before tonight's 12z models came out).
  17. Evening thunder
    Umm not if you live west of a line from Southampton to the pennines! not just about the east ya know! (Looking at the ECM precip charts you can find on Weather Underground under Model data). And unlike the GFS the only thing anything after Wednesday is good for, is the near continent and perhaps east Kent.. zzz. Edit infact the GFS looks better for eastern areas too by Wednesday so it dosn't sound that good lol
  18. Evening thunder
    Hmm don't really like the ECM and UKMO they seem to have the heat and storms further east by Tuesday :/
  19. Evening thunder
    Not often you see the a Met Office forecast with the words 'frequent thunderstorms' SW England 3-5 day forecast: 'Sunny spells but also a risk of an isolated thunderstorm. Turning hotter and more humid with more frequent thunderstorms or outbreaks of thundery rain possible on Tuesday.' One can hope
  20. Evening thunder
    Yeah probably true, I was just thinking if these temps aren't (normally) that rare in summer, occurring most if not all years, they might have been prepared for it though maybe it's cheaper/easier to just spread a bit of grit on it whenever it does occur. I was thinking that sounded a rather big range for Cork! If I had thought about it further would have realised it couldn't have been unless it got a very unexpectedly low min temp.
  21. Evening thunder
    I wonder how they do it abroad in hotter countries, maybe more grit in the first place? Blimey, is that for Cork? Just pips Exeter Airport's 23.1C range on the 13th!
  22. Evening thunder
    Yes I thought the other models probably would too, had only looked at GFS precip/CAPE charts at the point of posting. You may be right, always hard to predict thundery weather, just thought the forecast sounded drier than most models show.. though I have just realised it's for Sunday to Tuesday when for some reason I was thinking it went to Wednesday.. lol
  23. Evening thunder
    Didn't stop you chasing a breakdown in FI (yes it looks like one will probably occur, so things fist shown in FI can be correct at times, and a breakdown isn't that unexpected in the UK.. took it's time). ah double post, thought this would add on to my previous post
  24. Evening thunder
    Not really in terms of temps, it upgrades temps slightly in the reliable timeframe.. e.g Monday: 06z: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130719/06/81/ukmaxtemp.png 12z http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130719/12/75/ukmaxtemp.png Tuesday: 06z: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130719/06/105/ukmaxtemp.png 12z: http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130719/12/99/ukmaxtemp.png Sunday slightly warmer down south on the 12z too. You don't have to keep telling us that a breakdown is coming (and only posting about models supporting the quickest breakdown..), we know that the models are all showing some kind of breakdown or breakdown attempt some time next week. Will be interesting to see what the ECM shows later and whether it shifts as atm it's latest run doesn't really bring cool weather in until after day 10 (thundery though, so a breakdown of dry weather to some extent yes). I was slightly surprised at the Met Office 3-5 day foecast for SW England saying staying fine and largely dry, becoming hot and humid, with only isolated thundery showers possible on Tuesday, as the GFS at least wants more thundery/showery activity by then.
  25. Evening thunder
    You don't need cold air, at least not near the surface for thunderstorms It's more about the difference between the lower and upper levels of the troposphere, as well as humidity etc. Colder air at higher levels (not the surface) can help create instability, and/or warmer air near the surface. The tropics and hotter places than us get much more thunderstorms, no cold air in sight there. There were a few west and NW of London the other day on the hottest day of the year eached 32.2C. The higher the temperatures go today the bigger the contrast between higher level temperatures and the more likely isolated showers/storms are to form. The temperature has dropped back to 25.8c here thanks to a sea breeze after a peak of 27.8c earlier on.
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