Nick L

Absolutely no point in looking for specifics until it is nailed on. Details should be looked at 36 hours beforehand - and any earlier than that is just plucking numbers out of the air.

It's posts like the one you quoted which confuse newer members and amateurs (like myself). Making comments that go completely against the general trend of discussion and not even bothering to quote a chart to support it. This certainly doesn't look like dull grey rubbish to me: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif Could bring a decent dump of snow for favoured locations.

They haven't updated their forecasts yet, give them chance!

Certainly bloody cold out there today! Max of 4c, should give the CET a bit of a kick! Very foggy this morning, cleared by mid morning, but as soon as it started to get dark it descended once again. Doubt we will get too cold tonight thanks to cloud cover.

ECM has backtracked to the GFS on a cold spell!! You rarely see that. Wintry spell nailed on now IMO

Agreed. Got down to around freezing at 10pm here and is still hovering around that mark. Nice to get a sub zero night though!

I am dreading waking up in the morning and checking the Model Thread. By reading the first few posts on the last page you will get an idea of how it has gone. The ECM and GFS 00z will be very interesting. The 18z is an absolute stonker of a run, completely going against the ECM.

Well let me go through the list Keith put against me: Weatheronline, Netweather, weather solutions, Metcheck - I believe all of these forecasts are based on GFS runs? Therefore it's obvious why they are showing armageddon type cold. People seem to go by these forecasts as if they are gospel, they are only showing what the GFS is throwing out - garbage in, garbage out as they say. Now, I am not saying that the GFS is producing garbage, but it does have a tendancy to produce stunning runs, and when the ECM says no, it almost always backtracks a day or two later. Meaning we have an agonising wait and a monumental bump back down to Earth. The Met Office long range forecast is promising I agree, and the FAX charts will be interesting to say the least tonight. But that long range forecast was before the ECM 12z, and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a more watered down version tomorrow (ie. mainly cold and dry, chance of wintry flurries in the East). Anyways, eyes down for the pub run.

Huh? Please elaborate.

Doesn't need Meteorology knowledge at degree level to tell that is a broken chart! :lol:

After experiencing that several times I now have a golden rule. Never tell anybody about it until all 3 models are in significant agreement of a wintry spell within 72 hours!

I reckon that this will end up being a damp squib. When the ECM starts to lower the possibility of a decent wintry spell then 99% of the time the other models will follow. Wouldn't be surprised if the UKMO backtracked tomorrow, leaving the GFS all on its own - something we have seen far too many times in the recent past.

Agreed! I think it is a case of comparing them to the absolute belters we have had of late causing a bit of a disappointment. If we had 3 days of runs showing blowtorch southwesterlies then these charts would cause a meltdown in here.

Yeah my bad

Highly doubt it with these uppers: http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20091209;time=18;ext=384;file=tmp850;sess=e1be1fdf878165e6521378946eb4385d; Doesn't matter anyway, far too far away to worry about and we have the small matter of next week's fun and games yet!

Bit of a battle between mild and cold for Xmas day! Only a bit of fun but if that came off some lucky folk could wake up to a very snowy Dec 25th!

Yup, that big pool of cold air over Norway heading straight for us! http://212.100.247.145/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20091209;time=18;ext=159;file=h850t850eu;sess=3ffa13ecce20263c329bb134011b435b;

Oh I agree that Ian knows his stuff, and does make some excellent posts (some very recently regarding the cold spell). I just don't agree with the constant use of the modern era to explain pretty much everything and the refusal to accept it might not exist. Anyway, pub run coming up...

Unsuprisingly he acknowledged the possible event, but stated this is "the best event in the modern era" or some rubbish like that. Check the last page of the previous model thread. If we had an ice age he would still stick by his theory until the bitter end.

That's nothing, my annual 6th form Christmas football match might be snowed off next Friday I am reffing first half though so I will ensure it goes ahead - even if we have to play it in 6 inches of snow

WAHEY! I like it He's right you know sufc Anyway, eyes down for the ECM rolling out soon, there is always one model that has to be a party pooper, but let's hope it allows mega ramping to commence...

Well, 25th Dec would do quite nicely!

Well I am coming up to your place for our match on Dec 28th, so let's hope not

Good advice that. Or if you don't know how to read the models use the Netweather forecasts.

Looks like a "battleground" to me at the end of the run, potentially a lot of snow from this for those north enough, but those too far south it will be a washout! http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091209/12/312/h500slp.png http://charts.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20091209/12/312/h850t850eu.png All in all though, a belter of a run.