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Radiating Dendrite

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Everything posted by Radiating Dendrite

  1. Radiating Dendrite
    Finally an undercut.......get the car started!
  2. Radiating Dendrite
    To my eye it looks a similar set up to that we saw in March - weak hieght rises deflecting the jet stream south. There id some very deep cold air being projected in West Russia, if we manage to get that coming west.........
  3. Radiating Dendrite
    Not long till the 18z GFS now.......fingers crossed it has been doing shots with the Euros! Hoping to see continued westward progression and some energy going under the developing block.......maybe a Murr sausage in FI
  4. Radiating Dendrite
    Yes they are updated on a regular basis. The lows are not the ringers of snow at the moment, they are the trigger to getting colder north / easterly air masses.
  5. Radiating Dendrite
    A good ECM but we are still missing a trigger low. We need to see energy going under the block (such as the low to the west of Ireland above). At the moment there is still too much energy either going over the high or hitting it head on.
  6. Radiating Dendrite
    Just seen the GFS 12z - everything further west again in hi res. Low res looked a dogs dinner, which is to be expected.
  7. Radiating Dendrite
    GFS does its usual party trick in FI. In High Res though it did look to be an improvement with everything a little further west again and better heights. Today could be a very interesting day
  8. Radiating Dendrite
    Something is certainly going to change..... But the ECM and GFS still have energy going NE and not SE. Hopefully this will start to change on later output. I am still a little sceptical because the PV seems completely anchored to the south of Greenland which is not a good place for getting cold in the UK. Heights may develop to our East, but we may be too far West to see any benefit - a large high to the east and a trough to our West and us in no man's land could be a possible outcome?
  9. Radiating Dendrite
    Sleety in North Wales in the heavier bursts.
  10. Radiating Dendrite
    indeed......though the mods only use to let it get to 36 or so pages before a new one.
  11. Radiating Dendrite
    A bit of straw clutching going on at the moment I feel. We look like being stuck in the zonal pattern for at least another week and anything being predicted after this is pure guess work. Fingers crossed......but it is like pulling teeth this winter!
  12. Radiating Dendrite
    There must be some cold somewhere!! This month is actually reminding me a little of last year, some brief cold at the start and then milder. I had a thunderstorm on Christmas day! Probably the only thing rarer than snow on the big day
  13. Radiating Dendrite
    Personally I think we are starting to see some small baby steps from the models in the mid range (ECM, UKMO) to a more favourable situation for the second half of the month. At the moment too much energy is going into the northern arm of the Jet, but slowly some models are transferring this energy into the southern arm. Hopefully the 12zs will continue with this theme later on.
  14. Radiating Dendrite
    GFS 6z looks like groundhog day. I am still optimistic that we will see a pattern change soon, but am well aware that another Feb 1998 could occur also Fingers crossed for a colder outlook soon.
  15. Radiating Dendrite
    ECM seems a little better in the later frames than some of its most recent runs. I am still a little concerned that any blocking over Scandi will not be far enough north to deliver us a decent easterly. The models are playing around with different ideas in FI at the moment, a sure sign of a possible pattern change.
  16. Radiating Dendrite
    Some people think the GFS is the main model simply because it has more runs per day and more info available to the public........ this is completely wrong.
  17. Radiating Dendrite
    Typical GFS..... runs out of ideas so decides to unleash a day after tomorrow style low.
  18. Radiating Dendrite
    There won't be copious amounts of rainfall not with the high over us from here to infinity according to the models.
  19. Radiating Dendrite
    Currently - 0.7 after an overnight low of - 3.4c. Hard frost this morning
  20. Radiating Dendrite
    GFS is not as good as the last few runs, but that is just intra run variability. UKMO is better though! Let's see what Daddy (ECM) thinks of it all.
  21. Radiating Dendrite
    Yes..............about a week too early. Only get excited when it starts to snow.
  22. Radiating Dendrite
    This always happens. In these set ups the air usually gets colder the closer you get to the event. Lets just hope we get upgrades and not too many downs!
  23. Radiating Dendrite
    Model watching in winter is a bit like Total Wipeout! Once you get past one obstacle another pops up As others have said, the ECM just seems a little too much energy over the top of the high. The cold spell for the start of next week looks pretty nailed on now. Hopefully the ECM ensembles will paint a slightly more positive picture.
  24. Radiating Dendrite
    The GFS is now starting to smell the coffee. Some interesting synoptics, the pool of cold air does run out with nothing to draw on from the NE as we get to the end of hi res and into low res. This is usually always the case though, uppers will change with each run. The ECM will be very interesting!
  25. Radiating Dendrite
    Any chance of popping your location in below your avatar? Makes life a little easier
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