Radiating Dendrite

Think the GFS may be the last to the party with the undercut as it does like to over do the Atlantic somewhat. Pleased to have the UKMO on board.....let's see what the 12z ECM has for us. Could be Euro vs GFS showdown - how many times does that happen!

Personally, I still think the vortex over Greenland is looking far too angry to allow a proper sausage shaped scandi high. Additionally, pressure is still too high over the med - no genoa low.

The Tsar bomb is pretty astounding when you read the figures and at the same time terrifying. The date is uncanny though; could be coincidence but what happened during that winter was highly unusual.

-4.7c here this morning! Final confirmation that I live in a slight frost hollow with areas of higher heights around me. This temp is already colder than anything recorded last winter!

Heavy snow in Purley. Temp has dropped to 1.4c.

Think people need to remember that any cold is well into FI.

Well the 0z GFS is hardly inspiring. The first chart and the last one in FI look very similar. Think this November could be memorable for being mild and quite settled overall as that euro high looks like it does not want to shift anywhere.

The darkness never bothers me - I find it quite cosy. Anyway, we have had these wonderful things called light bulbs for the past 100 years. I know some people suffer from SAD which is a shame but in the modern world in which we live a bit of darkness for a few months of the year is hardly the worst thing in the world. If we were a tribe of hunter gatherers then I would be miffed - but we ain't.

Think I would rather boring weather than a 200mph storm!

It did not lead to the big freeze! It has now been cast aside in favour of this year's new cold weather fave - the Atlantic cold pool.

It did seem a little odd to me. If Scandinavia is "abnormally" cold then that implies the PV setting up shop over there. I could see us having a snowy winter in that scenario; with that cold air able to filter out and impact the UK under the right synoptics.

High pressure to the north and southerly tracking lows! Sounds like a good forecast for the UK cold wise from accu weather - another one that will probably be torn to shreds come April!

Last winter was dull as dishwater here....had one morning of slush and that was it. Hoping for the mother of all easterlies as they're the only things that tend do deliver in my region.

Lovely clear start. Currently 2.9c after a low of 2.4c.

Because that is our normal weather type during winter.

Light snow here now.....precipitation suddenly forming over south London - a little odd.

To be fair to Tamara she is very knowledgeable and posts interesting posts.....but most of what she has previously posted has not gone on to happen. To be honest....I am looking forward to spring now. Cold without snow is just expensive on the heating without any fun. A pleasant 21c day is becoming an increasingly more pleasant thought by the day.

12z GFS reverts back to a high slap bang over the UK.

So much moaning in this thread. Some people need to wake up and realise we do not live in the Siberian tundra. Personally this "cold spell" is a million times better than the dross served up last year. We have some interesting charts to look at and wintriness falling from the sky. Mother nature sometimes needs a little foreplay before she gets going...so calm down and enjoy the ride.

Looks to be sliding past us though Yank in to our West.

Just rain here. We only do well here in a NE or E airflow. A straight N is a waste of time, may as well be 10c.

Stunning charts? All I have seen is marginal snow events from decaying fronts.

I am going to come out of hibernation and post only in this thread - the MOD thread is a bit doolally atm. Personally, I am excited about the potential on Sunday. With 48 hours to go this could easily upgrade and have the rain to snow transition start earlier in the evening / afternoon. I have seen similar events before, rain all afternoon and then snow overnight leaving 4 - 6". Not saying we will get that amount but looking at it the things that interest me are: 1. Precipitation intensity - the heavier the better as it will encourage evaporative cooling. 2. Thicknesses becoming lower from the North throughout the event. 3. Some reasonably good 850 hpa temps (-4c to -6c). Evaporative cooling can lead to snow at modest 850 temps of -2c (which I have seen). The shallowness of the feature is also a major plus!

Sleeting in Wrexham atm.

Too warm for snow and it is just a line of showers. You have more chance of meeting the real Santa than seeing snow all day.