Radiating Dendrite

Finding this a little frustrating. I can't see us ever getting a vortex as weak as this one and yet we still can't nail a good cold set up. Hopefully we will see some mid-term upgrades, but I agree with Nick - either the high do something or I will be looking for a bit of a reset to the pattern.

No snow whilst the high continues to sit on top of us. We need it to move eithee NE or NW - maybe one for future runs but think we may be stuck underneath it for a good few days.

No...but more than likely it doesn't become the perfect run. I think people are getting a little carried away looking for cold in every run just because the seasonal models show hints of a Colder winter. If these seasonal models showed a milder winter people would be rubbishing them.

Yes - but it always stays in the far reaches of FI. To my untrained eye the vortex looks to be gradually cranking up with high pressure restricted to the mid latitudes on our side of the globe - making a small attempt at retrogressing to the NW later next week before being overridden by the jet and slipping to our SE allowing the Atlantic to start rolling in though I don't anticipate any big storms just general dankness and near average temps.

These are not the right synoptics. You need a keen NE / E wind and a deep cold pool with low heights. Hopefully we may get that in the long term but there are many hurdles to overcome.

ECM is notorious for over amplifying things. People are to quick to write off the GFS - yes it is the most Atlantic biased model but out weather is predominately from the Atlantic. Anyway, -5c 850s are far too warm this early in the season. Still need another 2 or 3 weeks before widespread snow become realistic.

So you will stick by your forecast for the rest of winter come December 1st?

Yes; I understand this completely. My problem is it surely becomes nothing more than a weekly forecast when it has to be updated on a weekly timescale due to unforseen changes. I admire anyone who gives a seasonal forecast ago but the problem with most is they go into far too much detail. When the METO will only issue probability forecasts for a season ahead, how can an amateur going into much greater detail be taken with more than a pinch of salt. Would it not be best to present a seasonal forecast as simply as (as an example): DEC - Warmer than Average and wetter than average. Jan - Colder and drier Feb - near average and wet Think you would have more of a fighting chance and require fewer changes.

Best of luck Ian. I think the fact that you are already amending your forecast says it all though.

If everyone had that attitude we would still be using stone tools.

I live in the North Downs and it is still fairly rubbish for snow. You get better shower activity in Kent than we do. We saw snow in the 17th Jan; but it was literally a 2cm job that had melted by mid morning.

Don't forget the following: "The GFS 6Z is always the warmest run of the four" "One for the shredder" "It's the GFS vs. ECM and UKMO and I know which one I'm backing" "The 18z has been down the pub again" The runs become living entities during winter! Haha.

Air temp got down to 5c and ground was at 4.1c when I stepped out the door at 7am. Heating was fired up for an hour this morning as some rooms had dropped below 16c.

A few frosts and a few centimetres of snow will be a vast improvement on the last couple of years!

Not put it on yet. We moved to a new house in July....so it will be interesting to see how effective the system is once we turn it on. Currently at 17c - 18c; will wait until we drop to 16c before firing it up. Should still be enough heat during the day, especially with sunshine to keep it a couple more weeks away.

Stunning here in the centre of town apart from the nagging breeze. Agree regarding winter - bring on the +20c days now!

On the flip side when it hits 30c this summer here and they are stuck under a rain band we can all have a good chuckle

Looking forward to warmth now in all honesty. At least with a hot spell downgrade the temps may only reach 25c instead of 30c - not exactly a disaster. Winter in this country is just a constant battle with everything on a ll knife edge - I'm worn out!

To be honest I would have thought a milder USA E. Coast would be a much more favourable proposition. The severe cold they have had in the last few years has just fired up the jetstream!

Just in response to Crewe - we had the warmest July day on record last year and a very hot July in 2013. I think people remember things when they were a kid as being all rosie.....is it not the fact you were a kid, could play out and had few responsibilities.

In all fairness it's not worth following any op past +144.

Not sure why it's too late.....we had two weeks of winter left the last time i checked and March can still deliver early on.

Wow......The ECM is in a particularly good mood. Let's be honest; it's the model you want to see showing this as it verifies best.

To be honest I just don't see it. The showers currently affecting East Anglia are prominently rain and that's in a cold NE airflow. I think the peak district may see snow; but low lying central areas will surely be rain. Looking at how this winter has panned out I don't expect any surprises.

Not expecting much if anything here. This has the hallmarks of a Kent event and sod all anywhere else. A keen NE usually fails to deliver here as the showers die off to the north of London.