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Radiating Dendrite

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Everything posted by Radiating Dendrite

  1. Radiating Dendrite
    Think people have started to call it a day. To be honest it is pointless commenting on the GFS when it shows a completely different outlook 6hrs later.
  2. Radiating Dendrite
    I disagree. They only seem less accurate because of greater hope being placed in the medium range due to nothing showing in the reliable.
  3. Radiating Dendrite
    To be honest I see little but cold rain and wind......maybe some wet snow in the north to low ground. Some individuals continue to bang the drum for narnia but one gets the sense they are only trying their hardest to make a mediocre output tie up with their previous predictions.
  4. Radiating Dendrite
    Must admit; I'm getting model fatigue now. Think I preferred the old days when I didn't even know what the GFS was. I would read the five day forecast and if something wintery popped up it usually happened - no wild goose chase. Actually looking forward to warmth and light now. Wind and rain is good for nothing!
  5. Radiating Dendrite
    To be fair Chris a SSW does not guarantee cold for the UK. It all depends on how the northern hemisphere sets up after the warming - we could still end up mild.
  6. Radiating Dendrite
    -1.2c here in Purley (south Croydon) at the moment. Think our problem will be how much precipitation is left on the front.
  7. Radiating Dendrite
    Looking at the radar I think it may just be clouds by the time it gets down here. The precipitation seems to be dying - really need it to start reinvigorating.
  8. Radiating Dendrite
    Do you think we will see a clean breakdown and return to mobility or a messy interim period before more amplification GP?
  9. Radiating Dendrite
    The problem comparing back to 1938 is the fact that it formed in a different location and under a completely different set of atmospheric conditions.
  10. Radiating Dendrite
    I was led to believe that the 0c degree isotherm was good enough for low level snow on the continent due to it being a continental landmass and not an island - lower DPs etc.
  11. Radiating Dendrite
    That is certainly what JH is always telling us. Pick one run a day and stick with that.
  12. Radiating Dendrite
    I believe he is saying we should expect a temporary strengthening of the vortex before it significantly weakens / collapses in response to warming.
  13. Radiating Dendrite
    ECM still a little grouchy this morning. High pressure to our West, then on top before is sinks south at the end of the run into the slug position. Hopefully we will see little updates throughout today with a more pleasing ECM later. Must admit, I am starting to fancy our chances of a surprise easterly; will not take a lot given current output.
  14. Radiating Dendrite
    It's not really a breakdown though as we never actually go into the freezer. All we see is a chilly spell with night frosts and +4/5 by day in the South. Then the low moves in from the South West bringing a snow to rain event for the North while in the south we go back to just boring wet. The wild swings imply that no model has the right idea yet.....they always struggle with what is a very complex set up. It will me a million times different at day 10 to what is shown now.
  15. Radiating Dendrite
    Really would not worry about the uppers. They tend to be colder than shown by the models and -6 to -8 at this time of year given the set up will be plenty cold enough! This is the very best time for this to happen!
  16. Radiating Dendrite
    Think I will stick with the UKMO for this spell as it has been the most consistent with the GFS and ECM now playing catch up with it.
  17. Radiating Dendrite
    You do have to laugh at model watching in winter sometimes though. Last week I was chasing an Easterly, now a Northerly - what next!? Probably another easterly!
  18. Radiating Dendrite
    There must be some peachy ensemble runs from the GFS looking at that mean. Let's hope the ECM keeps this a happy place this evening!
  19. Radiating Dendrite
    I did mention yesterday that the ECM can often be too clean with its synoptics and prone to over amplification especially towards Greenland. Let's hope this is just a blip and it shows a better long term pattern on the 12z. Given the timescale though there is still plenty of time for things to change
  20. Radiating Dendrite
    I agree.....just careful not to get too sucked in. It only takes one shortwave to be in the wrong place or a little bit too much energy and the whole thing can crash like a pack of cards. This is the best opportunity this winter so far though. Hopefully the GFS will sort itself out soon as it did well with the similar situation we saw in 2010.
  21. Radiating Dendrite
    Let's just hope this is not a repeat of what happened last week. The ECM and UKMO were both optimistic and then back tracked to more of a blended version of what the GFS had showed. The GFS gets criticised for showing messy scenarios when the Euros can often be cleaner but sometimes they are too clean and the ECM has had a tendency to over amplify things the last 18 months.
  22. Radiating Dendrite
    The signal is still clearly there as far as I am concerned on the ECM. Given how far out it is the idea will be played around with - you are not going to get every run looking identical.
  23. Radiating Dendrite
    To be honest both could be a true as it may be a bit of a knife edge situation with the slider.
  24. Radiating Dendrite
    GFS 6z is a fairly similar run to the 18z. I may not have a meteorology degree but the problem is surely the fact that the high pressure is not a true scandi one but much further to the north and east. It never ridges far enough West to engage any low and send it SE into Europe. We are stuck in no man's land - looks a similar situation to a few years ago when Europe went into the freezer but we were too far West of the pattern and never tapped into the cold.
  25. Radiating Dendrite
    But the 9th is far out in lala land. I would rather a quicker progression which even though not perfect delivers in the end rather than chasing the perfect synoptic that never gets into the reliable.
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