Snowmad79

Morning all, downgrades on the UKMO and GFS this morning with the forecasted heavy PPN around 16th now delayed a further day and the band barely even reaching southern coastal areas with GFS showing it as snow for the South Coast and the UKMO has it entirely rain up to midlands. And apart from that light snow else where. Yes too early for specifics but heres the UKMO 00z snow chart for 120 hrs, 144hrs & 168 hrs >> 174hrs GFS Wise heads will know this can still go either way for the better or the worse, though still no full breakdown to the atlantic out to the 18th Jan at least.

Model thread peeps darn sarf are going to love this mornings ECM arn't they lol

I disagree, Yes they show the decent snowfall event which has been shunted further south but the shortwave development near Iceland is now down to 120 hrs and the UKMO is now edging towards that by 168 hrs. We could be seeing the re-opening of the Atlantic steam train soon. I wont be dissappointed either way. Now interested to see the ECM's take on things.

The gusty winds we had yesterday have now toned down a lot but after some clear skys last night it is now once again cloudy with heavy drizzle. The GFS and UKMO charts dont look all to great with shortwave activity around iceland however the GFS is definitely more progressive showing this at 120hrs vs the UKMO which looks to have moved toward thats by 168hrs. The snow as per the charts "Day 10" posted 6hrs ago seem to have been shunted south a good margin. Still time for that to totally change (or dissappear totally lol).

I normally dont even look at that run tbh but when it shows a shortwave spoiler by 144hrs it raises an ebrow or two.

What the GFS is showing by 144 hrs is crunch time. Make or break, if that makes it onto the 12z and into the more reliable time frames then it could be dissapointing. We've seen this many a times before so it shouldn't be a shock if it does happen.

With the major alarm bell being the fact the low development near Icleand is sliding into the reliable. Horror show right there on the 6z

mention spring at this time of year young lady!

Depends where everyone is located. For us, a slight shift north puts us in the sweetspot so all good

I mean everyone is entitled to their own opinions but I cannot see any mild breakdown at all in any of the models which can only be a good thing. You cant really grumble if you get 10-20cm of snow over one day during what is already turning into quite a lengthy cold spell.

True that but the models have gone from showing a flabby attempt at a GL high to something a bit more robust and the ECM especially has improved over the past few days now keeping LP and the Jet stream south whilst maintaining enough influence from the GL high. As you know, things can and possibly will change but it's a very postive start to the days model watching imo.

I would defintely bank this ECM run even if its the midlands getting the biggest pounding. Best chart of the winter so far. Just hope it makes into reality!

Oh I know only too well, anything can happen between now and then but for me thats a great chart to start off the new day. I will take 10-14 cm for sure

That chart right there is 1000x better than even last nights ECM. The run looked like it was squeeky bum time but pulled through with this beauty. Someone could correct me but that would produce a hell of a lot snow for some.

Hi folk, Gotta say the ECM at 192 is the best chart Ive seen in a while. It gives us a more robust GLH which is more "classic looking" and enough to keep LP south without wrecking the whole pattern. Thats what you want to see come into the reliable now rather than a slack GL High. Defo an inspiring chart!

And can you believe it, raining here right now. Unbelieveable!

Totally agree with today being the worst. As you say, things can change and it will still be bitingly cold & dry out to atleast 16th Jan but people in the model thread need to stop wearing these when viewing the models..

Yes thanks mate, wise words. I will never be truly despondent because as you say this location always fairs well if the conditions are ripe and we've already had at least a week of lying snow . It's just that I have been on the snowmageddon hype trains many a years and now its amusing to see the model thread in ramp mode and people mentioning "Classic synoptics" which are in reality a slim possibility which can be scuppered very easily. Just wanted to point out at that the charts right now are nothing special but lets see how things develop. Looking forward to the tonights 12z ECM take on things.

Despite the model thread meltdown in the last few days and having been on here model watching watching since 2007 I havent seen anything "special" from the models. A lot of people were hyping up a shabby long range retrogression of HP with no real Greenland high scenario which now appears to be getting watered down anyway. I personally dont really like Greenland HP because we more often than not in the NW end up dry and cold in a Nerly/ NEerly flow with all the goodies going down either side of us with the eastern coasts the most favourable locations. Be interesting to see what the 12z models do with this HP.

We had a lot of hail yesterday and just the odd shower since. Just now we got sharp shower with hail in it. Pretty nasty out there.

turned back to icey rain here now. pretty unusual flip flopping of the ppn for this area tbh

Pleased to report the rain did eventually turn to snow before any significant melting of snow already laid. Would be blizzarding now if the snow was heavier but this will most certainly do

Aweful! absolutely chucking it down with rain up here

Had an early night last night and between then and now we've had another inch or so of the white stuff

Dandruff ? Not sure where abouts in this town you are but the flakes are decent here and pretty hefty at times.