Snowmad79

I am no expert obviously but my rule of thumb is, if we are in core of a strong HP system or in no mans land in between wide Isobars between systems we are likely to get sunny spells to Glorious sunshine. So far this looks like a Sunny spell on Sunday morning as the HP core crosses the UK followed by glum easterly flow.

I know its grim outside most of the time but it's bloody lovely having a home at a solid 18c without having to touch the heating. Not that we could use it much this winter! Anyway here's hoping for a decent spring, would really appreciated a good spell of some warm & sunny weather! Have a nice evening guys.

We've had snow all day today but it didn't really start to accumilate much melting on the paths and roads until the last couple of hours when it really started to stick. About 3 inches so far and like a blizzard out there now with that wind.

Wow pretty special seeing how the clouds whizzing by changing direction

Wow what a merry but Grim festive period this is! The models looking more and more stormier as the rest of the year ebs away. PV defintely sling shotting those LP at us from Newfoundland instead of winter wonderland, as suspected have a nice holiday period!

Why though ? The models are absolutely brimming with the stuff

Going back as far as I can remember on the model forum here, Cold Zonality was a phrase used a great deal by many. Newbs, enthusiasts and knowledgable people which generally refered to LP systems bringing mild sw'erlies and then pulling in Polar Maritime/Returning Polar martime air. Some called that cold zonality even if LP didnt actually clear fully to the east into neverland. Some also called them northerly topplers. I think thats what we are looking at for a while here. Slight edit as I know it really should be called Meridonal Flow but Cold Zonality it just how most have always described it.

Well, it certainly looks like previous model runs including Ens suites pointing to extention of the milder conditions and confining cold snowy weather to "blips" with Scotland/borderlands getting the best of any chance is actually coming to bear now. Was hoping to see some sudden last minute flops but I guess that won't be the case. Positive tilting jet barrellling LP at us & rejuvinated euro HP is the way forward for now and UKMO especially, showing the PV getting it's winter gears on. At least we have 2 - 3 months for more shots at a winter jackpot. Mustn't forget that even recent heavy snow events like back in 2018 occurred at the end of Feb into March so not all doom and gloom. Plus we get to save on our bills for a while

Heres a chart from back then for those wondering Probably best that people in mod thread don't hype up any GL highs too much because they need to be of the classic variety to get the goodies.

Thanks, Matt. Not being negative as there are some positives to take away from all modelling and ens but personally I am not seeing anything to get excited about at this moment in time. Scotland is always in or around colder air at this time of year and tend to get the best out it in terms of snowy weather when the rest of us do poorly. The ens you posted for birmingham are especially telling for me. The thing about the PV is when most people talk about it they use the 850 charts to say it's disorganised/split etc but don't look at the other available charts like this. I am no expert obviously but it is becoming more circular in its favoured postion which strengthens westerlies around the globe which can prevent proper GL and Scandi HP setups. Winter has only really just got started so definitly not the end of the world

It is indeed, the worst of the worst and 2.8c. Aweful. I can't even get out the garden though because the ground is still frozen solid & raised and my double gates are still both stuck solid

No point getting peoples hopes up with ens like these. They are now constistently showing any decent cold as "blips" and extending the period of time that uppers sit around 0c which is not good at all unless you want coldish and wet muck. One thing that always worries me is the errodation of heights over GL as the PV starts to Organise in its prefered winter location, which is looking increasingly likely imho. PS. where is the xmas grinch emoji ?

We are one of the lucky ones that got a final little top up of snow before the thaw comes. Currently 2c here and rising.

This is what we're all going to get soon

We still have the Snow from the first and only spell this area got lol. However some of us are in the warning area for some snow on Sunday. This is going to be a kick in the teeth with all the rain we are now forecast with the milder weather being more or less prolongued on the models and returning cold now reduced to flirting blips. Laughable. If we cant get decent Snowy weather I'd just rather the cold sodoffski

Right that settles it. I need to get my station some shade because the direct sun on it is causing a reading of 8.9c lol

-5 here, strange when people around this area post low temps than me. Now mine is lower and its only 17:20

No ice day here, even though it sure does feel like it. The the bit of sun we had warmed it up a litte as my station was reading 1.8c is now dropping again.

- 4.2 on th'hills of Oldham according to my Weather station.

Yeah didnt last but its at least something from nothing

Yep and the snow has started falling here. Brilliant! Looking forward to those Irish sea streamers tomorrow too.

Sweet bejesus not sure who taught newer folks how to read ensemble charts ? That looks good from a coldies POV. Lengthy period of -5 uppers with the Operational being "somewhat" of a warm outlier in FI. If we took that graph alone it doesn't scream default atlantic or mild at all. Quite the opposite I would say this mornings models look like a bit of an improvement on yesterdays despite not getting -8 850's over us for another 5 days or so.

Looked at all the forecasts - Looked at the Rain Radars - Looked at my Forecaster - Looked out the window, broken cloud, warm and fairly sunny - Went outside to do some gardening and started p****** down with rain

Thanks for the lovely pics. Can tell that is not Dovestones unless the area changed drastically lol. Anyway from the looks of it, its a good job our water in Oldham comes from the Lake District now adays Cheers again mate.

Enjoy your walk mate, not been there in a while! be interested in knowing how the ressie is doing for water :)