Snowmad79

Its that time of year where people start having to clutch things and dig deep for the good stuff. Accept the inevitable!

Cheeky, I don't use the CET value to determine weather it was cold and snowy I used a combination of reports from three sites including netweathers History of British Winters page here: http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=winter-history;sess=​ Cheers

To be honest and from what I've read there is always a SSW towards the end of winter. SSW's are classified into 4 catagoies, mostly 3 with the last being the "Final SSW" which occurs when the strat transitions from a winter mean westerly flow to an easterly mean flow. Calling for a late SSW is pretty much stating the inevitable for the end of a typical winter cycle.

On its own yes. But at least you can see how all our past El Nino's winters have turned out. 65% of all El nino winters were terrible winters for the UK. But in the context of Weak Moderate and Strong. The stronger the El Ninos have been the better our winters were. The meto experts obviously seem to think that an El Nino increases the probability of a positive NAO in late Autumn and Winter and is probably why 65% of previous Nino winters were terrible here Indeed though, you have to take a whole lot more into consideration.

it was but the HP was centred to the west of the UK with troughing south through Scandi into Europe so we had North Westerly and northerly flow followed by a decent n-easterly in November. This autumn saw HP over the UK and centred to our East which is now becoming positioned over Europe which gives a Werly and soon to be South westerly flow. So actually quite a contrast in reality.

It's not about doom and gloom, It's about the reality of how previous winters panned out after the transition from Autumn to winter. I would struggle to name any winters good for cold where HP dominated throughout Autumn with a stagnant Euro high towards the end into winter. Doom and gloom would be declaring winter over before its started by saying the PV is already too strong and that 65% of all EL Nino winters were a disaster for UK in terms of Snowy weather Personally I'm going for Largely Cold and Dry with the occasional snowfests in places.

Pleasant day here in Oldham today after recent bouts of god damned rain! Still feels a tad chilly out there though to be fair. 11am Temp: 13.3c Wind chill: 10.8c Humidity: 63% Pressure: 1002.8 and falling Dewpoint: 6.4c Wind: 3.8 mph Gusts: 8.3 mph Rain in last 24hr: 15.6mm I'm on the lookout for the cold crispy days now so expecting more rain and wind to wash that bloody euro hp anomaly away

One thing is for sure. As we head into November we need the Euro Mid lat blocking High resplaced with trough or the Jet will not be able to take its nose dive south and if it did we'd be stuck with Blustery SWerlies. Getting a wedge of blocking HP to our NE robust enough to force the jet underneath is very difficult to get in comparsion to a mid atlantic high that surges north towards Greenland and trough digging south through Scandi with easterly and NE'erly flow. On the model thread I mentioned about the PV being stronger now than it was in this time frame during lead up to classic winters a few year back but one positive for me is the El Nino. We've only had 5 strong+ El Ninos since 1950 and 60% of them lead to snowy winters for the UK. Overall, 65% of all El Nino's winters were terrible for the UK in terms of Snow. The current El Nino is still predicted to breach the +1.5 mark which is when these events are classed as Strong. With the PV strengthening will Nino be strong enough to drive weather conditions in our favour ? I've consolidated some data into a blog RE: El Nino vs UK winters http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/293/entry-4904-el-nino-vs-uk-winter/ which details the dates and strength category of El Ninos / UK winter classification of Mild & Dry / Cold & Snowy etc and what the corresponding winter was like thanks to a number of reports from NWeather and other sites. (Office Excel version attached). nino vs winter.xls

[code=auto:0] Weak El Nino (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly +0.5 to +0.9) Dates Winter Class Info 1951 – 1952 Mild & snowless According to reports this winter was generally mild but snowy in March 1952 when easterly winds and blizzards caused havoc for the South East. 1952 – 1953 Mild & snowless Despite a cold end to Autumn with 20-25cm of snow across a belt from Wales to East Anglia the winter turned out to be rather snowless with more in the way of Atlantic storms including a north sea storm surge during January 1953. 1953 – 1954 Very cold & snowless Whilst this winter was very cold with bitingly cold winds the end of Jan into Feb saw heavy snow fall in the south with Kent reportedly seeing 2 metre drifting. 1958 – 1959 Mild & snowless There are no reports for this winter other than it being proceeded by Stormy atlantic weather with flooding in places and followed by a fine warm spring. 1968 – 1969 Cold & Snowy Notably one the few White Christmas in the UK with overnight heavy snow giving wales and the cotswolds a foot of snow. Generally cold through winter with severe blizzards across the norther isles courtesy of a polar low slipping SE across the country effecting the Midlands, east Anglia and parts of the south. 1969 – 1970 Mild & snowless There are no reports for this winter other than Autumn finishing with one of the 5 driest Octobers and 3rd equal warmest. 1976 – 1977 Mild & Wet Notable very wet autumn in 1976 followed by one of the wettest Februarys across England and wales. Wet snow was actually reported at times during this winter. 1977 – 1978 Cold & Snowy Winter started off with a generally wet December being reported. By mid January things had turned colder with heavy snow and blizzards reported around the UK and again in February. 6 ft drifts reported in a number of regions. 1979 – 1980 Mild & Wet Classed mild and wet due to lack of reports. One being that this winter had a record of 5 episodes of severe gales/ storms. Snowfall was recorded on two dates, with one in february and one in march 1980. 1994 – 1995 Cold & Snowy Conflicting reports on this one. Two sources state overall snowless and wet where as netweather historical reports frequent bouts of heavy snow at times in January, february and march 1995. The early to mid naughties were indeed cold and snowy in my part of the NW of the UK with deep drifting. 2004 – 2005 Mild & snowless This was overall a mild and wet winter due to the dominace of westerlies. With that said, these westerlies did bring some snow showers to Scotland and NW England on occasion. February was fairly mild on the whole with anticyclonic nw'erlies. 2006 – 2007 Mild & snowless Exceptionaly wet on the whole for most of the UK with Snow showers mostly confined to Scotland. England did see some snow at the end of winter into spring 2007. Moderate El Nino (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly +1.0 to +1.4) Dates Winter Class Info 1963 – 1964 Cold & Dry Exceptionally dry winter for the most part with only one incident of snow showers reported. 1986 – 1987 Cold & Snowy This winter saw record breaking low max temps in Jan 87 and heavy snow, mostly for the South through SW. Snow continued for SW into March 87. 1987 – 1988 Mild & Wet Winter 87/88 followed the well know known “Great October Storm” when the SE experienced damaging winds of over 100 mph which caused local devistation and a number of death. Winter 87/88 continued in much the same vain with wet and windy weather. Jan 88 was the wettest January for 40 years. 1991 – 1992 Cold & Dry Winter 91/92 turned out to be the driest winter for 28yrs with any snow mostly confined to the Scottish highlands. 2002 – 2003 Mild & snowless Reports on this winter state that Aboyne Aberdeenshire recorded temps of 18.3c on the 26th Jan 2003. In England 17.4c and 16.3c was recorded in Kent and Gravesend respecively. Though the occasional easterly winds did bring some biting wind chills. 2009 – 2010 Very cold & snowy After an unsettled and reasonably mild first half of December this winter turned out to be the coldest since 78/79 broadly speaking. Prolonged periods of harsh frosts and frequent snowfall recorded right across the country. -22.3c was the lowest recorded for Sunderland. I'm sure most people remember the frequent below freezing Ice days and travel disruption caused in winter 2009/10. A classic winter for very cold and snowy conditions. Strong El Nino (Oceanic Nino Index SST Anomoly +1.5 plus) Dates Winter Class Info 1957 – 1958 Snowy Surprisingly this winter started off on the mild side with temps of 18.3 c recorded at Aber N. Wales before Cold air swept south across the UK from thr 19th with heavy snow across large parts of the UK. Shoeburyness recorded level lying snow depths of 25 inches. 1965 – 1966 Snowy The second half of November saw heavy snow for most parts of the UK. Late January saw the Eastern parts effected by snow followed by the NE of the country in Feb. 1972 – 1973 Mild and Wet Most reports do not refer to this winter directly and only generalise that the lead up to and the following spring were dominated by stormy depressions. And that only leads to one thing. 1982 – 1983 Snowy A number of reports don't mention anything notable about this winter. However, that is because this was a northern affair. Very cold and snowy in the north up the pennines to Scotland in November, December and February. 1997 – 1998 Mild & snowless An exceptionally mild winter this one and largely snowless, though snow was reported right across the country on a few occasions. The poor winter was also followed by a “white easter”. No % Total Number of El Nino Winters since 1950: 23 No of Weak El nino winters since 1950: 12 No of Moderate El nino winters since 1950: 6 No of Strong El nino winters since 1950: 5 Total number of El nino winters that were poor for snow: 15 65 Percent of El Ninos were Largely Snowless Total number of El nino winters that were good for snow 8 35 Percent of El Ninos were Snowfests % of Weak El Nino that lead to snowless winters: 9 75 Percent of weak El Nino winters were snowless % of Moderate El Nino that lead to snowless winters: 4 67 Percent of moderate El Nino winters were snowless % of Stong El Nino that lead to snowless winters: 2 40 Percent of strong El nino winters were snowless Summary: 65% of El Ninos resulted in poor winters for the UK in terms of snow. 35% of El Ninos resulted in good winters for the Uk in terms of snow. During an El Nino winter there is overall a 65% chance of a poor UK winter for snow. 60% of Strong El Ninos resulted in Snowy UK winters. 40% of Strong El Ninos resulted in poor winters for the UK for snow. During a strong El Nino winter there is a 60% chance of a snowy UK winter and 40% chance of a poor UK winter for snow. During a Moderate El Nino winter there is a 33% chance of a snowy UK winter and a 67% chance of a poor UK winter for snow. During a weak El Nino winter there is a 25% chance of a snowy UK winter and 75% chance of a poor UK winter for snow. [/code] :)

Looking back at this blog / forecast, I actually wasn't too far off the Mark in terms of it being a dryer than normal winter, cold at times and February was one of the mildest Febs on record.

From a coldie point of view. As we head into November we need to start seeing this HP anomoly over europe removed and replaced with troughing through the UK / Scandi and into europe. Euro highs are only going to keep the Jet Steam running over the UK on a SW to NE trajectory or just north of the UK prolonger mild and/or wet weather into winter. With a PV already looking stronger at this time of year in comparison to 2010 for example and the lack of HP over the pole, it will just make it even more difficult to get High Latitude blocking rather than what is currently modelled and what I personally would class as mid lat blocking (where the core of HP is centred over Europe). Much rather we start seeing the following for our region: Not the best charts to be posting but the Jet Stream as it is now with strong HP over Europe is still too far north for my liking. Current modelling shows the troughing just to west of the UK feeding in Wet and blustery weather from the SW before drying out again due to the stagnant Euro high exerting more influence again as it sends the jet SW > NE over the UK. Edit: Sorry added more but the editor cut some out and will not let me post anymore charts due to object error

Just a quick report from me... SNOWING moderately in Oldham and covering over nicely. What a lovely morning this is

How about.. The water in Mallorca isn't fallin like it oughta lol

Well I was staying positive despite this gloomy muck but that first link just killed it for me lol. Costa del Arctic down in Spain damn them! You've got to laugh

It was probably the sign of impending doom! Dull Grey and drizzle in Oldham currently, which will make waist of the remaining snow cover up here . Typical misserable NW fayre tbh.

Snowing here in frozen Oldham. Very light but nice all the same.

Looks like a cheshire gap streamer has opened up on Radar. So Nice bands of PPN on both coasts and a dry wishbone down the middle Ah well thats northerlies for you.

I can tell you now, only the Blue / rain was accurate on that radar shot. Im firmly sat under Green.. Sleet ? And its been Very heavy constant snow all night since 7 am It fell as snow further west and NW of here too (Oldham)

Wow what a night, pretty much none stop heavy snow since 7pm! Big fluffy flakes with only a few restbites in between. Oldham is close to Standstill. Shaw Oldham (Low altitude) Where I live, higher up. These roads were ploughed and gritted earlier in the evening Was strange as at one point it did spot a bit of drizzle but as you can see it quickly reverted. Still Snowing heavily here. Apologies for the quality

Well to my eye its very similar if not the the same size as Examples used on Professional Fact websites.

If you look at the sat image here http://www.sat24.com/en/eu?ir=true That swirling feature to the West of Scotland heading SE is a Polar low. It's a small but robust Low Pressure cell within the large Low to the NE of the uk which can develop in northerly flows in rapid time and do not usually get picked up on the models. If you look at the models for 1pm today they pretty much just show the core of the main low NE of the UK and a disturbance / front running west out into the atlantic Basically a small but intense area of Low Pressure has developed in this flow which can Dump huge amounts of snow to areas in its path. They also tend to be short lived. (I think !?!)

Nice pics from down the road in Glossop mate! Looks like you got the proper juicy flakes there. Up here it was graupel blizzards on and off through the night into this morning. First time I've ever been out in Thunder lightning and snow together. Hoping the PPN coming in from the NW on the radar can reach this far again and give us a nice top up!

All these pockets of PPN seem to be dodging Oldham despite the radars showing them passing over. Nothing so far. Oh wait a few flakes blowing in the wind! Hopefully we can get some nice streamers developing otherwise in a NW it will be hit a miss for a lot of us. Nice to see other spots getting blasted though. edit: Heavy graupel ! Well the conditions are ripe for sticking. Graupel blizzards and a dusting up here already.

Snowing slightly still here on the hills of Oldham. What a shocker, waking up to a right good dumping! Easily 6 inches deep plus some drifting. That is more like it!

Yeah Just over the hill from you we had moderate snow from 8-9pm didn't appear to stick much in Shaw before it died off. Then just walking home to Sholver/ Moorside it kicked in again. We've had about another 2 cm added to what we already had from the weekend. As you say, wish we'd had the really heavy stuff which covers gritted roads From an Imby (5 ft drifts) point of view I would say a dissappointing winter so far.