SussexmarkyMark
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Posts posted by SussexmarkyMark
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I'll sign them up to Persian Paladin's Facebook account if that happens.
The mind boggles !
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The current Model Output Discussion is a complete mess, the good posts made by the experienced members on here are drowned out by endless garbage - especially when the weather gets interesting. The new idea will enable those who want to read and learn from the discussion do so, without trawling through pages of crap.
But I agree there are too many threads now.
I do agree. It's just that I'm worried the Model Discussion Thread will still be full of garbage and will become 'dead' if the contibutors listed above do not continue to post there as well.
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Hmmm. Not sure about this really.
We already have Model Output Discussion, Technical Output Discussion and General Model Output Discussion and now a fourth. Sounds like too many similar threads to me. All it does is dilute the existing Model Output Discussion and will probably mean that the more interesting posts will disappear from that thread and appear on the new one and us lesser mortals won't be able to discuss them properly.
Personally I think it would make more sense to 'police' the Model Output Discussion more tightly and anything that is not relevant to be put in the General Model Output Discussion thread.
It seems now that everyone is equal, but some are more equal than others!
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Horrible horrible day driving to work in heavy rain. dark dank miserable weather-In the middle of our fantastic super cold spell I not only got used to the cold but started to take the snow for granted, I wont do that again-I really need my snow and frost fix. I always think people are trying to wind us coldly lovers up when they say they love mild winter weather and cant wait for the Atlantic to wake up -so folks here we have it 10 days of mild wet bleak mush where everything looks dull and dirty . Oh well better search for my happy pills and get some artificial sun rays as I could be suffering from SAD. .
.Beautiful day now though. Cloud and rain seems to be moving to our north. Just hit 10c under blue skies on the Sussex coast. Far from 'dull and dirty'
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OK, we've had the black and white now I will add the grey. :huh: Grey skies and gloomy here but dry. Temp 2.4 too warm for snow even if any precipitation reaches this far. So a possible cold and damp day in store. Woohoo!
Still nice to see some activity on this thread again.
Just had a light flurry here and it's 2.6c
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Yes, unfortunately there is an issue with the ecm charts currently as they changed their system without giving any notice. We've been tied up with the change to new servers for the last few weeks so haven't had the chance to sort it, it's on the schedule for Monday though.
Thanks for that.
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For the last couple of weeks I've not been able to view the ECMWF charts. Is this just me, or is it a problem? Whenever I try to view a chart, I just get a blank map (as attahced). Thanks.
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After a gloriously sunny morning, we have the first sea fog of the year in a light southerly breeze, with temperatures dropping back to just 6.5c now
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You have to laugh at the MetoOffice warnings. It was a fairly wet morning in Brighton, until about 12:45 when it stopped raining. About 5 minutes later the MetoOffice issue a severe weather warning for Brighton & Hove and it hasn't rained since! I realise it has been very wet in parts of West Sussex and Surrey this afternoon, but not here in Brighton. !!
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I hope your right,just one last snow covering would be good,day off work and day off for kids.Fingers crossed
I can't see it being a day off work tomorrow, unless you're a real skiver lol An inch or two at most I would say. Not that I'm overly bothered as the snow we have had this winter has been the best in years
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Not looking good in Brighton
just sun and scattered clouds.Patience...... much better that the heavier showers arrive after dark anyway, more likely to wake up to a covering tomorrow morning then. Radar showing a lot of shower activity over the southern North Sea.
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Light dusting here, will probably melt soon though...
Probably will, but it shows the potential if we get a few heavy showers tonight. Took less than 5 minutes to produce a covering.
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Just had a very short-lived graupel shower. Only lasted about 10 minutes and gave the lightest of dustings.
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Well to me the 00z charts are looking slightly better for cold and snow over a larger part of England later this week. The FAX chart is showing troughs and the deepest cold air on the GFS is shown to be over a larger area of England than on yesterdays charts.
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I think the use of terms such as 'upgrades' and 'downgrades' is unhelpful on a model discussion thread. It appears to me that models just change, which means some area will 'upgrade' and some will 'downgrade' depending on how the models change. There have of course been many changes in the models over the last ten days viz-a-viz a cold spell and things have changed further over the last 48 hours, particularly with regard to a full-blown long- lasting easterly. If you look back at last week, many were posting charts for later this week showing an easterly from western Russia to mid-Atlantic, with a double HP over Scandinavia and Greenland, which obviously raises expectations. This may of course still happen, but does not seem that likely.
I think some of the more experienced (and dare I say older) contributors should be more aware than there are many younger posters on here (not me unfortunately) that might read more into the post than you are meaning and therefore when a lot of FI charts showing deep cold at +240 are posted, you have to accept a certain degree of disppointment when these disappear, as there is excitement when the post is originally made. (And no TEITS, I am not aiming this comment specifically at you.)
And for what it's worth, I think TEITS' summary for this week looks pretty realistic to me.
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Whether it be a 'classic' easterly or a 'modern' easterly, the models certainly seem to be shying away from it. Before the weekend, there were hints that pressure would rise to our NE and NW, with a double centred HP , with easterly winds from Russia right out into mid-Altlantic. Now, although there seems to be a brief attempt at an easterly across SE England later this week, it quickly disappears as the HP dominates and then the possibility of a northerly, before it becomes cyclonic over the UK.
The point I was trying to make yesterday morning (unsuccessfully it seems as I managed to look at the wrong chart) and others have been making this morning is that over recent runs the HP is further south and the coldest of the air seems to be heading for France and so we are unlikely to see widespread snow or anything particularly severe this week over most of the country. The only exception seems to be the extreme South East.
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I see what you mean, apologies for that.
These are the charts you should be looking at.
Thanks for clarifying.
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Think the confusion is between height charts and thickness charts relating to the 528 DAM line.
http://www.weatheron...M=0&PANEL=0&WMO=
Am pretty much a novice so someone correct me if I am wrong here..
Thanks for that. You may well be right, but I'm not an expert either.
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I have to ask what charts are you looking at?
528 dam line across the UK at +48 which is supported by the fax charts.
http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn483.png
The forecast at the moment for next week is simple. The risk of snow showers moving into E areas from midweek onwards. This is what the Met O also suggest!
I really wish some would make the effort of actually looking at the charts!!
FYI I have spent quite a bit of time looking at the charts this morning. I have looked again at the same time scale as the chart that you have produced (ie the GFS +48 chart) and the one I am looking at does not show the 528 DAM over the UK. If the chart is wrong, then so-be-it, but I can only look at the charts that are being shown. So perhaps it would have been politer to ask which charts I was looking at without the rude comment to finish your post ?
http://www.weatheron...=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=
As for my original post, I was asking where the widespread snow and potent cold was showing, which the original contributor has now clarified by explaing he was talking about FI, which is fine, but I was just wondering what he was referring to. As for your comments about the Met O, this maybe the case, but as it is a model discussion forum, it doesn't seem unreasonable that I discuss the model output this morning.
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Doubt there will be much precipitation about anyway looking at the charts away from the SE. Probably will have to wait until that pesky high migrates to greenland and opens the Arctic floodgates which looks like being towards next weekend. In the West where a lot of people live it's going to be almost entirely dry and frost til next weekend at least.
Does look interesting after then though with the risk of widespread snow and potent cold.
Which charts are you looking at that suggest widespread snow and potent cold, I wonder? I've had a look through the output for the main three models this morning and they all seem to keep the very cold air to the south and east of us, with the 528 DAM line barely reaching the UK before +144, whereas a couple of days ago the 512 DAM line was making an appearance over SE England. The HP seems to be much more centred over the UK through the next four or five days, keeping the colder air over mainland Europe. Only once we get towards next weekend and beyond does any potent cold arrive in the UK which, as we all know from the last week, is well beyond the reliable time-frame.
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Anyone know where we can view some models to see this worst snow storm in New York in 80 years ?
(Hope it comes this way!!
)If you mean the worst snowstorm in 90 years in Washington DC, try the BBC website for pictures and weatheronline has the GFS for north America.
As regards the latest GFS output, certainly looking like much colder air into the SE of England than the other two main models were going with this morning. Having said that, I find it very difficult to believe a model several days out, when it has got the starting point wrong. It's supposedly overcast here at the moment, but it has actually been sunny all day.
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Well based on the 'main three' models this morning, the intensity of any cold in the coming week seems to have reduced. About 48 hours ago, the sub 528 was being shown quite widely, with some sub 520 air getting into the SE of England. This mornings model runs seem to divert the colder air into central France, and keep us above 532, so nothing particularly severe in the coming week based on this mornings runs and daytime temperatures of around 4 or 5 c seem quite reasonable predictions to me.
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We are heading towards something incredible and thats just looking at ECM cold mild battle where cold won out to extremeness these 2 charts say it all 1985 february.
I don't see very much similarity between those two. The 1985 setup has HP over Scandinavia, with very cold air on its southern flank being directed towards the UK. The 2010 chart has LP over Scandinavia, blocking any particularly cold air reaching the UK.
Looks likely the milder air is likely to win for most of England and Wales, with only for NE of England and Eastern Scotland looking like being particularly cold by the weekend. As for the Met Office further outlook, they've had the possibility of returning cold in the plus 10 day period for about a week now, so if they were accurate, it would be in the 3 to 5 day period by now, which it clearly isn't.
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According to NetWeather Snow Forecast maps, the central belt of England hovers around the 60% mark for snow on Tuesday. Looking at the ensembles, the Control was a bit of an outlier with regards to PPN for the London area - Ensembles all clump around the 5mm mark. Control is up around 10mm. Other areas, Manchester, Aberdeen, control is within the ensembles.
Snow forecast - 06-12
http://www.weatheron...0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=
12-18
http://www.weatheron...0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=
Interesting. Seems the Atlantic is losing the battle against the cold to our east all the time. Who's gonna win the war? My money is on the Siberian High sending it's troops to us
Just a word of caution about those snow % charts. A number of times in the last couple of weeks there has been above a 90% chance of snow in this area in the 'now cast' and it was raining!
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just sun and scattered clouds.
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New Model Analysts' Thread
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by SussexmarkyMark
I like that idea, but perhaps technically fairly difficult (?), unless the contributors remember themselves to post twice.
And I wasn't agreeing that they were all garbage, despite what Hairy Celt might have thought