Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

SussexmarkyMark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    183

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by SussexmarkyMark

    Today's Weather And General Chat

    in Weather reports

    Posted

    Does anybody know what the point of the NetWeatehr 10 day forecast is? I ask because according to the forecast for Brighton, the current weather is 'snow' and the forecast for today is 'snow' which is obviously complete rubbish, so if the 'nowcast' is wrong, how can I possibly rely on the forecast ?

    I'm guessing nobody does then. Does anybody else have a 'nowcast' on their NetWeather homepage that bares no relation to the type of weather they are actually experiencing ?

    Today's Weather And General Chat

    in Weather reports

    Posted

    Does anybody know what the point of the NetWeatehr 10 day forecast is? I ask because according to the forecast for Brighton, the current weather is 'snow' and the forecast for today is 'snow' which is obviously complete rubbish, so if the 'nowcast' is wrong, how can I possibly rely on the forecast ?

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The models may have been pointing towards what you say, but TEITS said all along that the weather would be turning colder again irrespective of model output even GP said that colder weather could return briefly to some extent toward the end of the month.

    I think someone just needs to cast their minds back to last week where many including TEITS and many others including myself said this so-called milder (which actually turned out Average) period would be a brief respite.

    I cannot understand the negativity in here sometimes there is so much time left of Winter and we haven't even entered the traditionally coldest month.

    You have to remember that milder is a comparative term, not an absolute. The weather has not been mild (although it wasn't far off on Sunday), but it has been milder than last week. Not that many actually said mild if I remember rightly. I think I said 'fairly cold at times in the east but nothing too severe', whilst others said less cold. You also have to be careful not to confuse negativity with objectivity. Saying that a week is going to be milder instead of a brass-monkey easterly is not being negative, it is interpreting the models in the way that they appear to be moving.

    Looking at the models today, I'm sure there are as many opinions as there are permutations on each model run and I'm sure many will guess correctly and many will not, but with the current output it is much more likely to be by luck than judgement. And of course colder weather is likely to return at some point, as, after all, we're only just over half way through January. The skill is to try and work out when the cold is going to return, rather than calling 'cold' every week and then claiming some sort of victory because one in three times you get it right...

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Considering the possible snow tomorrow/Friday they have been more accurate than some!

    Im still of the opinion that the front on Friday has more potential than tomorrow especially if the GFS continues with the trend.

    Just seen TWS post. Let me just say that back in Jan 1987 there was a swarm of Seagulls in my area. The very same day I spotted this was the day the BBC warned of the impending E,ly. Exactly the same happened again in Feb 91!

    And I'm sure in the intervening 18 years there have been just as many flocks (not swarms!) of seagulls that you hadn't noticed, or chose to ignore as they didn't fit the criteria. Any chance you could just drop the talk of flipin seagulls now, as it is a forum for model discussion ? Perhaps you could open a seagull thread and discuss them in there?

    Last week the models were pointing towards benign weather early on, a coolish midweek and then wet, and that is what seems to be happening. For next week they are trending towards colder and more continental influence. I really have no idea how you can say that what you were talking about last week is coming to fruition, or are you doing it just to wind people up ? !!

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Have to say its an amazing how different the Met O outlook is today compared to yesterday. We really need to learn a lesson here for the future because many assumed there was no chance of a cold spell for the rest of Jan.

    Except your good self and the Peterborough seagulls.

    SS2

    Don't you think it might be a little more sensible to wait and see what actually happens before handing out the plaudits? If we go back a week and see what the flipin P'boro seagulls were saying about this week's weather, they would have been made into seagull pie by now!

    As for the models this morning, they are far too varied to guarantee any particular weather for next week. Overall, however, they are trending towards more of a continental influence than an Atlantic influence after the weekend, but it may well be just a gentle SEasterly flow, or might be more pronounced, but far too early to call.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I certainly haven't forgotten them as I actually saved a few posts!

    The point im making is the change in the model output these past 48hrs isn't actually that surprising because we see the models regularly blast any blocking away. However some failed to see this because they were relying on the models instead of using experience/instinct. Im not having a pop at anyone im just saying at times we need to use forecasing instinct when viewing certain pattterns on the models. What you call hopecasting I call instinct!!

    Well at least we can agree with something, as I 100% agree with interpreting the models with experience and instinct as that is exactly what I go for, that's why I had no expectation of a full-blown eaterly this week .

    What is clearing through the mist is that medium term we must be looking NW for the end of Jan into FEb pattern. Height rises up there to start a synoptically similar period to New Year and early Jan. Jet will kick south as retrograde occurs, its messy but that is where we are heading. This is where I mainly differ from GP as ther next cold shot is unlikely to be brief because the block will drift slowly ese as we go through Feb. But what Nick S says I agree, absolutely no B coming for sure.

    BFTP

    Not sure why my previous post was deleted. I was just asking what a 'B' was, as I have no idea what he was referring to.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by SussexmarkyMark

    Excellent trend once again and the most important trend for me has to be the ECM ensembles. I said this morning the colder members have increased and this has followed with the 12Z.

    The important question though is have we learn't from this weeks model watching?

    Some of the comments this week have ranged from "No sign of anything cold for the next 10-15 days" to "The Atlantic is definitely going to win this battle". What we have seen this week is the models underestimate the blocking to the NE. This is why its important to use your experience/instinct when following certain synoptic patterns. If you rely on the models then you're likely to be misled. At times their are certain synoptic patterns that the models will handle extremely well but this week hasn't been one of those patterns!

    I don't think that is a 'range', as both comments you have written mean pretty much the same thing. The range was from "No sign of anything cold for the next 10-15 days" to "The Easterly is definitely going to win this battle". To be fair though, the vast majority of posters went for something in between - fairly benign early on, briefly colder mid-week and then mild and wet towards the end of the week, which is pretty much the way it has been going - although those sort of comments are usually ignored and forgotten as they are not 'exciting' enough for the hope-casters.

    As for the charts this morning, certainly more of them hinting at a more easterly flow over the weekend and into next week, particularly for more eastern parts of the UK. Still nothing too severe, but certainly hints of a more continental influence than Atlantic influence, but the trends are not there yet to be definite.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well another 24 hours on and still no sign of the Siberian HP exerting much influence on the Uk and certainly no real sign of the easterly that was 'nailed on' a few days ago and provoking so much back-slapping.

    Once again this morning the charts are showing that the LP over the North Atlantic is likely to have the greater influence on the weather in the UK, drving quite a bit of wet weather over our shores, particularly in the latter part of next week. Still the SEasterly flow over the SE corner for the early part of the week resulting in fairly benign weather off a chilly continent, but nothing severe and nothing resembling an easterly. I'm not convinced about the snow potential mid-week, except for the very highest ground in the north.

    In the slightly longer term, some of the models are now suggesting what I was mentioning yesterday, with the possibility of LPs over the UK joining other LPs over northern latitudes, riding over the top of the Russian HP and forcing it further south. The Russian HP then possibly ridging across the Alps and joining up with other HP over SWestern Europe and The Canaries, resulting in a fairly mild WSW flow over the UK.

    The trend is now very much eyes to the West smile.gif

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    What I said above last night is already beginning to show its hand.

    http://www.wetterzen...cs/Rtavn901.png

    Considering this is the 12Z which is by far the most likely run to blast any blocking away.

    I will add im not promising bitterly cold upper temps with snow showers but we might be able to pull enough colder air in to bring a few snow events. I wonder if those who were so confident of a mild week next week are so confident after seeing the 12Z!

    I don't think that changes much to be honest. The LP to our NorthWest is likely to link up with further LP over northern Scandinavia and Svaalbard. In turn this is likely to push the Russian HP further south and that may well start linking across the Alps to a HP building over the Canary Islands. If that happens, the UK will be left with HP to the south and LP to the north and in a generally mild South Westerly. Not guaranteed, but seems the most likely outcome to me.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    can you please post the charts that make it less likely than yesterday morning because I think it still hangs in the balanace, it seems dependant upon the track of the two low pressures that either head north or south, until this is decided which is in FI then I am not too sure

    Sorry, I don't have time to post charts as I'm at work, but as we have moved on another 24 hours and still none of the main models are showing an easterly for next week, I think the likelyhood of it happening is reducing. It's all a matter of looking at trends and the trend is towards the Atlantic and not an easterly.

    As I said in my earlier post (which I repeated from yesterday) the most likely outcome is a fairly chilly SEasterly for SE parts of the UK mid next week and more of an Atlantic influence further NW in the UK, with the Atlantic influence spreading to post parts of the Uk later next week.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Well I might just as well post exactly what I posted this time yesterday morning as the trend to less cold weather continues:

    'The Siberian HP seems very unlikley to exert any significant influence on the UK weather for next week, with LP in the North Atlantic looking to be the more dominant feature for NW Europe. The SE will probably have fairly benign weather and, although chilly at times, it will probably be fairly dry and overcast from a cold continent, but never really getting a true easterly to pull in any significant cold. The west of the UK more prone to attack from the Atlantic, so fairly average temperatures and some rain at times. Towards the end of next week the Atlantic looks more likely to exert it's influence over the whole of the UK.'

    The only difference from yesterday is that an easterly next week looks even less likely than it did 24 hours ago smile.gif

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The Siberian HP seems very unlikley to exert any significant influence on the UK weather for next week, with LP in the North Atlantic looking to be the more dominant feature for NW Europe. The SE will probably have fairly benign weather and, although chilly at times, it will probably be fairly dry and overcast from a cold continent, but never really getting a true easterly to pull in any significant cold. The west of the UK more prone to attack from the Atlantic, so fairly average temperatures and some rain at times. Towards the end of next week the Atlantic looks more likely to exert it's influence over the whole of the UK.

    So all that rather premature and, if I may say so, rather nauseating back-slapping of yesterday seems a little preamture !

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Looking at it, it appears that those areas that got a good dump in February have seen very little this time round, whilst those who got very little in February appear to have a good amount now (like myself and Neil for example). Interesting that just a small shift in wind direction can make all the difference.

    Not entirely correct. We had about 6 inches on each occassion here

    London & Se Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The last 24 hrs have been dismal for the ukmo. Why don't they update the presenters on the bbc in line with current events rather than sticking to the wrong line!

    Not just the BBC though. As I posted earlier, netweather also went with a warning for heavy snow today right through to 23.59, particularly for the SE. And they also gave a 90% confidence level ! And the warning is still on the homepage, which looks very wrong.

    London & South East Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I have just walked back from Woodingdean to top of Elm Grove in Brighton. Was snowing heavily around 4.30 and near blizzard conditions on the top of the hills with drifting of the lying snow from the fields. Very spectacular.

    For those of you who know the area, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Warren Road between Brighton and Woodingdean completely blocked by mid-evening because of the falling snow and blowing snow.

    London & Se England Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    No one seems to be able to answer me or is it because you are all to excited about the snow lol,am i going to see much snow tonight or this weekend? Cars are slipping up and down my road and most importantly it is not SNOWING and i want snow lol girl_devil.gif

    As the wind swings slightly more ENE after midnight, the direction of the streamer should change slightly, bringing an increased risk of snow showers to this area. Our main snow event in this area however, is (supposedly) late tomorrow and into Sunday morning.

×
×
  • Create New...