SussexmarkyMark

It's all very bizarre. According to the NetWeather forecast for Brighton it is going to snow all day today. How can the forecast be that wrong ?

I'm guessing nobody does then. Does anybody else have a 'nowcast' on their NetWeather homepage that bares no relation to the type of weather they are actually experiencing ?

Does anybody know what the point of the NetWeatehr 10 day forecast is? I ask because according to the forecast for Brighton, the current weather is 'snow' and the forecast for today is 'snow' which is obviously complete rubbish, so if the 'nowcast' is wrong, how can I possibly rely on the forecast ?

You have to remember that milder is a comparative term, not an absolute. The weather has not been mild (although it wasn't far off on Sunday), but it has been milder than last week. Not that many actually said mild if I remember rightly. I think I said 'fairly cold at times in the east but nothing too severe', whilst others said less cold. You also have to be careful not to confuse negativity with objectivity. Saying that a week is going to be milder instead of a brass-monkey easterly is not being negative, it is interpreting the models in the way that they appear to be moving. Looking at the models today, I'm sure there are as many opinions as there are permutations on each model run and I'm sure many will guess correctly and many will not, but with the current output it is much more likely to be by luck than judgement. And of course colder weather is likely to return at some point, as, after all, we're only just over half way through January. The skill is to try and work out when the cold is going to return, rather than calling 'cold' every week and then claiming some sort of victory because one in three times you get it right...

And I'm sure in the intervening 18 years there have been just as many flocks (not swarms!) of seagulls that you hadn't noticed, or chose to ignore as they didn't fit the criteria. Any chance you could just drop the talk of flipin seagulls now, as it is a forum for model discussion ? Perhaps you could open a seagull thread and discuss them in there? Last week the models were pointing towards benign weather early on, a coolish midweek and then wet, and that is what seems to be happening. For next week they are trending towards colder and more continental influence. I really have no idea how you can say that what you were talking about last week is coming to fruition, or are you doing it just to wind people up ? !!

Don't you think it might be a little more sensible to wait and see what actually happens before handing out the plaudits? If we go back a week and see what the flipin P'boro seagulls were saying about this week's weather, they would have been made into seagull pie by now! As for the models this morning, they are far too varied to guarantee any particular weather for next week. Overall, however, they are trending towards more of a continental influence than an Atlantic influence after the weekend, but it may well be just a gentle SEasterly flow, or might be more pronounced, but far too early to call.

Thanks. Although I have to say that chart looks quite nice to me as a change from the horrible grey, chilly nothingness of the last couple of days.

Well at least we can agree with something, as I 100% agree with interpreting the models with experience and instinct as that is exactly what I go for, that's why I had no expectation of a full-blown eaterly this week . Not sure why my previous post was deleted. I was just asking what a 'B' was, as I have no idea what he was referring to.

I don't think that is a 'range', as both comments you have written mean pretty much the same thing. The range was from "No sign of anything cold for the next 10-15 days" to "The Easterly is definitely going to win this battle". To be fair though, the vast majority of posters went for something in between - fairly benign early on, briefly colder mid-week and then mild and wet towards the end of the week, which is pretty much the way it has been going - although those sort of comments are usually ignored and forgotten as they are not 'exciting' enough for the hope-casters. As for the charts this morning, certainly more of them hinting at a more easterly flow over the weekend and into next week, particularly for more eastern parts of the UK. Still nothing too severe, but certainly hints of a more continental influence than Atlantic influence, but the trends are not there yet to be definite.

Well another 24 hours on and still no sign of the Siberian HP exerting much influence on the Uk and certainly no real sign of the easterly that was 'nailed on' a few days ago and provoking so much back-slapping. Once again this morning the charts are showing that the LP over the North Atlantic is likely to have the greater influence on the weather in the UK, drving quite a bit of wet weather over our shores, particularly in the latter part of next week. Still the SEasterly flow over the SE corner for the early part of the week resulting in fairly benign weather off a chilly continent, but nothing severe and nothing resembling an easterly. I'm not convinced about the snow potential mid-week, except for the very highest ground in the north. In the slightly longer term, some of the models are now suggesting what I was mentioning yesterday, with the possibility of LPs over the UK joining other LPs over northern latitudes, riding over the top of the Russian HP and forcing it further south. The Russian HP then possibly ridging across the Alps and joining up with other HP over SWestern Europe and The Canaries, resulting in a fairly mild WSW flow over the UK. The trend is now very much eyes to the West

I don't think that changes much to be honest. The LP to our NorthWest is likely to link up with further LP over northern Scandinavia and Svaalbard. In turn this is likely to push the Russian HP further south and that may well start linking across the Alps to a HP building over the Canary Islands. If that happens, the UK will be left with HP to the south and LP to the north and in a generally mild South Westerly. Not guaranteed, but seems the most likely outcome to me.

Sorry, I don't have time to post charts as I'm at work, but as we have moved on another 24 hours and still none of the main models are showing an easterly for next week, I think the likelyhood of it happening is reducing. It's all a matter of looking at trends and the trend is towards the Atlantic and not an easterly. As I said in my earlier post (which I repeated from yesterday) the most likely outcome is a fairly chilly SEasterly for SE parts of the UK mid next week and more of an Atlantic influence further NW in the UK, with the Atlantic influence spreading to post parts of the Uk later next week.

Well I might just as well post exactly what I posted this time yesterday morning as the trend to less cold weather continues: 'The Siberian HP seems very unlikley to exert any significant influence on the UK weather for next week, with LP in the North Atlantic looking to be the more dominant feature for NW Europe. The SE will probably have fairly benign weather and, although chilly at times, it will probably be fairly dry and overcast from a cold continent, but never really getting a true easterly to pull in any significant cold. The west of the UK more prone to attack from the Atlantic, so fairly average temperatures and some rain at times. Towards the end of next week the Atlantic looks more likely to exert it's influence over the whole of the UK.' The only difference from yesterday is that an easterly next week looks even less likely than it did 24 hours ago

The Siberian HP seems very unlikley to exert any significant influence on the UK weather for next week, with LP in the North Atlantic looking to be the more dominant feature for NW Europe. The SE will probably have fairly benign weather and, although chilly at times, it will probably be fairly dry and overcast from a cold continent, but never really getting a true easterly to pull in any significant cold. The west of the UK more prone to attack from the Atlantic, so fairly average temperatures and some rain at times. Towards the end of next week the Atlantic looks more likely to exert it's influence over the whole of the UK. So all that rather premature and, if I may say so, rather nauseating back-slapping of yesterday seems a little preamture !

Also had about 5cm here. Wasn't expecting snow right down to sea level - and neither were the Met Office I think !

Not entirely correct. We had about 6 inches on each occassion here

Not just the BBC though. As I posted earlier, netweather also went with a warning for heavy snow today right through to 23.59, particularly for the SE. And they also gave a 90% confidence level ! And the warning is still on the homepage, which looks very wrong.

Light snow again in Brighton, but nothing on the radar. Temperature now at 1.2c

How can 6 inches (half a foot) sound better than 8 inches ? lol

I see the netweather homepage is still showing an 'alert' for today right through to 23:59 for heavy snow, with a 90% confidence level. Surely that cannot be right !

I think you'll find large areas of Sussex, including here in Brighton, also have plebty of snow

Just watched the latest live BBC News channel forecast from Rob McElwee ( I know it was live as he made reference to the previous item) and he showed persistant light snow for us for the next 24 hours, and still showed the 15cm warning triangle, Then for Monday, the snow moves further north and we get cold grey skies but mostly dry.

You should have taken a walk up to Race Hill today or one of the hillier areas. There's been quite a big dump today already!

I have just walked back from Woodingdean to top of Elm Grove in Brighton. Was snowing heavily around 4.30 and near blizzard conditions on the top of the hills with drifting of the lying snow from the fields. Very spectacular. For those of you who know the area, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Warren Road between Brighton and Woodingdean completely blocked by mid-evening because of the falling snow and blowing snow.

As the wind swings slightly more ENE after midnight, the direction of the streamer should change slightly, bringing an increased risk of snow showers to this area. Our main snow event in this area however, is (supposedly) late tomorrow and into Sunday morning.