snowblizzard

Very rare in UK!

Didn't this happen last year? Strong signals from many models for Northern blocking, favourable MJO,etc. But, it didn't materialise and it all went pear shaped very quickly! But, models are currently unanimous on 14 day period of strong -NAO So, perhaps it's just a temporary blip.

I'm not moaning, but I'm a little disappointed that Met Office (10 day trend) are not expecting a severe cold spell like 2018 BFTE!

I recon we will definitely hit high thirties tomorrow, possibly 37c? The record high temperatures were always modelled further North, i.e, London and Central/Eastern England

Yep, we'll have a flying start tomorrow John as temps are not expected to fall much below 23c overnight!

Relieved to see that big drop around 19th!

Around 30% chance that the highest temperature record could be broken somewhere in SE this weekend!

+20c isotherm doesn't get anywhere near as far North as initially modelled. So, temperatures Friday should not be as high as forecast a few days ago! 34c/35c surely much less likely. Details on breakdown, ie. rain & thunder, still very uncertain.

I expect we'll have to get through a freezing cold Spring before then!

Azores High UK winter killer!!

Yes, I have the same feeling about January and with NE USA about to go into deep freeze doesn't bode well! February has been disappointing in recent years, perhaps this one will provide a nice surprise for cold lovers? But, I recon we will once again see cold air arrive over UK early Spring when we don't really want it.

Uploaded today!

Just for fun, not the best quality (recorded on VCR 34 years ago!) but brings back fantastic memories of that January1987 weather event. 20211229_074156.mp4

Not the best quality (recorded on VCR 34 years ago!) but brings back fantastic memories of that January1987 weather event. 20211229_074156.mp4

Even if this were to happen, you could bet your bottom dollar that there wouldn't be any really cold air over Europe to tap into!

High slipping away East and UK under attack from Atlantic! Surely it's game over for Christmas?

So boring!

BBC SE Local Weather beginning to hint at potential wintry weather (battleground scenario) on the run-up to Christmas! Although, with projected temperatures around 4c most likely cold rain, sleet event?

No, but superior knowledge and experience goes an awful long way!

Which is what Knocker & JH have been alluding to!

Agree, Northerly or North Westerly's simply don't cut it for us in the South & SE. Air mass usually significantly modified by the time it reaches the South coast. In Kent, we look East or North East for frigid air. Ideally, high pressure stretching from Iceland to Scandinavia with bitter cold air on the near continent (see my forum picture from January 1987) Then, we get peppered with heavy convective snow showers and streamers off the North sea. And, once the cold is in place, then look out for a channel low and blizzard conditions! Unfortunately, this set-up rarely falls into place!

Surely, nobody really knows what will actually happen post +120 hours despite all the known global drivers but it's a percentage game when it comes to making predictions. The most likely outcome, given accepted global warming, will be an above average winter and that is reflected in the Met Office outlook. But, it's highly unlikely that we will see a sustained Southerly or South Westerly airflow all through the winter, there are bound to be some brief colder interludes during the 3 month period. However, I personally think the chances of the UK ever experiencing a winter like 1947 or 1962/63 have now become virtually zero. It looks like UK snow lovers will have to seek altitude to satisfy their cravings!

BBC weather at 1pm saying below average temperatures with night time frost but mainly dry for most of UK next week and a hint it could turn quite wintry later next week?

Dec, Jan or Feb it would be gone in a flash!

Similarities to early January 2010?