snowblizzard

Don't give up yet guys! It's only 5th January There could be some huge surprises coming up in the next 6-8 weeks with SSW events

Reminiscing just for fun. Dream chart - Sunday 11th January 1987 Fantastic set-up with deep cold air to NE of UK (Moscow -30c) During the next few days I recorded 20 inches+ of powder snow in NW Kent Enormous drifts in strong ENE winds Persistent heavy snow showers on the Monday with maximum temperature -5c Minimum that night -11c I really fear that I will never see the like again locally in my lifetime

Problem being, if or when the normal Atlantic influence regains control it normally lasts for weeks on end! Hopefully, SSW events might help prevent that happening?

Lack of deep cold air to our NE and over NW Europe has been the problem from day one! Russian high surely the main culprit, pumping warmer air up from Med? Still lots of uncertainty about end of this coming week and loads of time for changes during January with fascinating SSW events. Keep the faith guys!

Yep, I'm definitely the latter! Dreams of January 1987

It's pleasing to read a glimmer of hope from Nick Sussex on the mod thread. And, BBC Weather hinting at snow later next week, probably Scotland & Northern England from Northerly blast? But, I just get the feeling that we are not going to hit the jackpot anytime soon!

I think it's just frustration tinged with impatience and what could have been SB With the current sort of set-up, I would be expecting at least -10 uppers with frequent snow showers into my part of Kent. Instead, with the projected Easterly we are only going to see wintry showers most of which are likely to be rain or sleet. I hate that type of weather!

Long way off, I know!

Yes, I think it's difficult to remain optimistic about UK winters in terms of very cold, snowy conditions. Obviously, it's still possible that very cold air and wintry conditions could reach UK sometime in the future. But, when you look at the current pattern, it's so hard to accept that there's just not enough deep cold air in the correct place for us to benefit. Yet another, close but no cigar! And, it looks like we will lose the advantage and a return to more normal pattern after next week. Hopefully, SSW events might produce something more exciting in few weeks time, who knows?

Not tropical, but see Tim Blands post!

UKMO almost certain to back down as less cold air looks likely to drift across from East (Med source) early next week! It's what happens after, that's the big question? Fantastic model watching at the moment!

Surely Steve, the really deep cold air over Siberia/Mongolia will not be able to feed into UK because of the massive Russian blocking High?

Crazy and outlandish in what respect Nick?

I'm not sure about Windsor, but to be fair we've been in the firing line here in NW Kent (Tonbridge) on several occasions since 2010 especially March 2013 & February 2018

Looking at the models and ensembles, seems next 7-10 days is pretty much nailed-on to be cold but not cold enough to ensure snow falls to all levels! Also, some experts hinting that atmospheric changes and SSW will likely result in West based -NOA which won't favour UK Disappointing, but we are in a much better place in terms of NH pattern than we've been during the last few winters. Lets hope that really cold air over the other side can somehow find its way towards NW Europe.

I've just seen the very sobering post from John Holmes in the mod thread. I'm beginning to think our hopes of a noteworthy spell of wintry weather during the next couple of weeks look like being dashed once again! It just feels virtually impossible to get the required set-up in order to deliver really cold air into UK

I fear more of that to come too! So frustrating that we have a virtual dream set-up developing but the lack of very cold air around UK will mean another 'close but no cigar'. Hopefully, we'll see more favourable developments in terms of lower 850's appearing in the models during the next few days.

Patience Grasshopper! We were never likely to see widespread snow this weekend although some on higher ground might see a decent covering during this coming week. It's later into January that we could hit the jackpot if the SSW & displaced/split vortex falls in our favour as some experts are predicting might happen. But, still finely balanced and nerve wracking, as usual, in UK Surely, we deserve something notable in terms of cold & snowy this winter.

Still not cold enough!

Stunning winter synopsis being modelled in terms of Northern blocking, amplified pattern, PV etc. But, I still have the feeling that the really frigid cold air just isn't there to be tapped into at the moment! Hopefully, that will soon fall into place before the whole pattern changes back to a more normal zonal scenario. So, fingers crossed for a widespread notable spell of very cold and snowy winter weather for UK. Happy Christmas!

Yes, I was quite surprised by that final chart!

She also said remaining cold next week and things could get interesting!

I've been feeling the same for the last 3-4 winter seasons! But, I still get 'sucked-in' and get overly excited about what we sometimes view on extended model outputs (FI) and whether it will actually materialize. It's a game really isn't it? Even when, like Feb/Mar 2018, the exciting stuff comes well within the reliable range I still expect it to go pear shaped! I'm totally hooked on model watching and really appreciate the fantastic input from the more knowledgeable members on the forum! I've learned so much from this forum about meteorology and how the atmosphere behaves over the last 12+ years. Thanks everyone.

Almost 12c here in Kent today! And, likely to be higher with some sunshine during the next few days. In recent years, temperatures during early spring are often lower than that.

Nice Greenland High building here?