snowblizzard

My avatar! I dream of seeing this occur again in our country. You can keep your 'marginal' wet snow/slush fests, this was the real deal!

Yes, the question is how far West towards UK & Ireland any cold pools can be convected and as we know it's a rare occurrence!

Unfortunately, you'll always be at a slight disadvantage in terms of seeing proper snow when living on or close to the Southern coastline!

Yes, with all the positive SSW, MJO, HLB signals, it wouldn't surprise me if we end up seeing the warmest February in history!

I'm now starting to think how long will it be until we see the first 20c on the tv weather maps? Possibly only around 30 days!

Azores high - UK winter killer!

I wouldn't give up just yet SLEETY! There are still a few weeks of opportunity to come. No, it's not going to be a 62/63 winter, but I doubt we'll ever see one of those again in our lifetime. Although it's difficult to see the Atlantic relenting from here, we could possibly see effects of SSW's late February or early March like 2018 Who knows?

I think expectations of a severe UK winter have, once again, been dashed. Slowly but surely, we appear to be returning to more normal UK winter pattern. And, it looks like flooding will be the main concern in some area's during next week! But, I suppose that's better than ambulances trying to transport patients on icy roads or through deep snow drifts.

Yanks also becoming frustrated with the NH profile and models! Jo Coiffi saying Northern blocking is too strong and is preventing normal pattern that would import the more severe arctic air?

He probably meant to say that it didn't actually split?

According to Met Office 10 day trend (Alex Deacon) the SSW has happened but it didn't result in a reversal, just a weakening of the polar vortex. They expect the weakening to continue into next week. So, presumably, that means that cold arctic air is less likely to flood into lower latitudes?

Invariably, Azores high is a winter killer for UK!

Yes, it's so depressing at the moment! Let's hope we get some early spring warmth this year.

Similar here in SE (Kent) But, quite often best snowfalls have been from heavy convective showers especially Thames streamers!

Feels as if it's all losing momentum and being watered down for UK! Not sure about USA , I think forecaster's there are still expecting artic outbreak in NE?

USA Forecasters have been dismissing and critical of ECM model output quite often recently!

But, we have been quite lucky in the past especially when we get a proper Easterly like Jan 1987, Feb 1991, Feb/Mar 2018 Northerly outbreaks (except exceptionally cold ones) have never been much good for us in SE

Absolutely agree! IMHO, there's no point looking any further than 96 hours and even then the finer details are often inaccurate. Yes, it's exciting to see model charts showing dream scenario's of severe cold and snow at 180/240 hours but invariably they will be totally incorrect. I prefer listening to the real experts so I do start to get excited when the Met Office are on board with potential severe weather events but even they are sometimes wrong! As for this winter, it continues to look poor for our particular area in the South East of UK!

Very interesting statistics from Laura Tobin on GMB this morning regarding global warming. The degree of warming over the last 100 years is absolutely staggering! It seems like summer heatwaves are now likely every other year on average. Surely, these changes are bound to affect UK winters. Severe winters in UK have always been very rare 1947, 1962/63 Severe cold spells like January 1987 & February 1991 would happen every 5-10 years on average. I don't believe we will ever see another winter like 1947 or 1962/63 in our lifetime. And, severe cold spells like January 1987 & February 1991 could possibly only happen once in every 15-25 years. At the moment we are seeing some of the most favourable NH winter synoptics for several years but there's a lack of deep cold around the UK As a severe cold & snowy weather fanatic, I find the situation really quite depressing.

Looking at the latest fax charts I can't see a route to proper cold for UK anytime soon I'm afraid!

Emphasis on *could*!

Yep, I just can't imagine having to cope with -46c

Yes, despite all the SSW guff, it's looking like we will be returning to normal UK winter conditions from next week!

Brilliant Torvill & Dean programme on ITV last week highlighted warmer temperatures being experienced in Alaska during the past few winters. Thinner ice on lakes and slushy snow conditions. I'm not sure what stage of winter it was filmed but they are definitely thinking that global warming is having an effect! So, what chance have we got in UK?

So much conjecture on SSW and about displacement or split of polar vortex. Some experts saying one thing others the exact opposite. You'd have thought in this day and age, with all the background signals, unbelievable computer power, satellite imaging and historical records, that we would have more accurate modelling and forecasting when it comes to SSW events. This one (if it does actually happen) is still not nailed!