snowblizzard

North, top of the Ridgeway

Just watched Darren Bett on BBC weather. It looked like last nights data/forecast as still showing heavy falls for SE Although he did say they don't expect heavy snow in SE on Monday. I recon the updated forecasts this morning will be very different! I'm getting the feeling this yet another damp squib fail!

John Hammond is our man - cold ramper!

Big question being, will the front intensify and stall over SE or fizzle and drift away East?

12th January 1987 saw the -20c 850hpa line very close to Kent coastline. We had 20 inches of powder snow in Westerham Kent So, absolutely no comparison next week! I'm rather disappointed having just watched SE News Weather. It looks a bit marginal with rain/snow mix mentioned in the forecast for Sunday night! Also, only 1-3 cm expected for my area NW Kent (not in amber warning area) I think we are too close to the less cold uppers until later on Monday morning.

Probably 3c lower than it will actually be!

Yes, radar/nowcasting period coming up next week!

GFS 00Z colder 850's never really get into South/South East before Atlantic starts pushing in! Adjustments South likely?

No, but I have to agree about the wet & muddy walks, my local park is still totally flooded! I love severe cold and snowy weather (not cold rain or sleet!) but this year I'm really looking forward to some dryer warmer weather conditions.

Direct Easterlies not as beneficial for my area (NW Kent) as NE or ENE! This time we appear to be too close to the much warmer air mass over Central Europe.

BBC weather still using the words 'potential' & 'perhaps' colder next week? Interesting Tweet from Marco Petagna on Northern blocking and Easterlies for February!

Feb 2018 - This was nailed-on! No comparison.

So, that's probably curtains for us in UK!

Agree 100% Most of the really cold spells I can remember have been with heights around Iceland or even better when linked to Scandi heights.

I think we just have to accept that in UK there will be some kind of 'spoiler' preventing cold air advection at least 80% of the time in this day and age!

Steadily becoming the most frustrating of winters!

Anyway, I suppose the one good thing about this winter is that sometimes we definitely know that there's absolutely no chance of anything wintry on the cards. But, at the moment there is a reasonable 'chance' that we could experience something more exciting in terms of wintry weather!

Stuck in an eddy?

Yep, I think we have been jinxed this winter!

Yes, for Scotland. But for South UK air originates from Med?

Totally agree. We've now also got social media and the crap that's churned out about snowmageddon and Narnia!

Surely, it's obvious that no one actually knows what is going to happen regarding the evolution during the next 10 days? It's an extremely complicated set up which could go one of several ways. But it's becoming rather tedious now constantly chasing mouth watering charts at 10 days + My feeling is that it will turn colder towards the end of next week, many of the ensembles are indicating a fall in temperature for 3-4 days. But, I think the odds on a protracted severe cold/snowy spell remain fairly low! Despite a very favourable NH pattern, it seems more difficult than ever to get severe cold across the entire UK!

JH, I really appreciate your unbiased, realistic reviews and outlooks. They are the only ones that really keep me grounded and prevent my expectations running away with me! Thank you.

Correction: Southern Counties!

And, the entire of Southern England!