Jeremy Shockey
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Model output discussion 11/12/21
Jeremy Shockey replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFZ 12z in deep Jos Verstappen land ! Obviously this is unlikely to happen but it will be interesting to see where it sits in the ensembles. ( and i know its not F1 ) -
Model output discussion 11/12/21
Jeremy Shockey replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 12z tableaux 850's Crazy amount of scatter after the 20th Dec. Anything can happen ( including some very cold options indeed ) Just need that high to be a few hundred miles North West and the -8 isotherm could be upon us for Christmas ! -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Jeremy Shockey replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM 0z ensembles to keep "the dream" alive i'm sticking with the ECM 0z Op as my line of hope. Looking forward to the ECM 12z to see where it puts the high pressure at 216-240 hours Plenty of opportunity for a cold crisp Christmas week still IMO -
Model Output Discussion - Winter arrives
Jeremy Shockey replied to Blessed Weather's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM 12z day 10 The high may be heading in the right direction at least ......something to keep an eye on perhaps -
sleeting near Huggate when i passed earlier this afternoon
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snow to sleet to rain event i would have thought sadly ......it will be 4 or 5 C by tomorrow morning with the -8 isotherm well and truly departed.
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Thank you John
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North Newbald just now.
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thanks WT , my daughter just named her Noella !
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and it is coming down even thicker now .........showers seem to have developed a more NNE angle of attack coming off the North sea
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Well East Yorkshire just did very well out of that ……couple of inches plus here from 7 until 8.30 this morning
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Maybe a bit of Wintry fun for parts of North and East Yorkshire tomorrow night ? North York Moors and Wolds perhaps !
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Settling nicely now ……. Heavy showers ( and this will freeze later and not thaw quickly tomorrow I reckon )
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wet snow coming down now ....settling on cars
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Ouch , hope nobody was anywhere near that
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Sleet again near Fridaythorpe now and the temp has fallen to 2.5°C ……. Would expect snow on the top of the Wolds later this evening
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Off to the pub in the snow
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sleeting here now on the Wolds at Cot Nab on the A166 ( top of Garrowby Hill )
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ARPEGE 12z Interesting for our region on Fri night perhaps !!!
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ARPEGE 12z for Fri night Potentially very Wintry for Northern England on Fri night according to ARPEGE 12 z
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GEFS 12z 850s Tableaux Quite a serious upgrade for the period Nov 25th - Nov 29th Very Wintry for some !
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ECM 12z 850s for Thur night ARPEGE 12z precipitation. Some Wintry fun for Northern hills on Thur night most likely
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GFS 12z 850's tableaux Time to get the logs in . We might not get lots of snow but the temperature difference will be stark. Plenty of fun for high ground in the North too !
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ECM 0z ensemble mean ( 850's ) Not a bad ECM 0z mean ( even if the graph needs to be extended at the bottom to show the -6 isotherm ). Looking forward to what happens after 25th Nov that's for sure
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GFS 12z ensembles ( 850's ) ......now thats more like it ......very seasonal from Sunday 21st onwards
