Jeremy Shockey
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Arpege 12 z Maybe something crossing Yorkshire on Sunday too ( would be cold enough for snow ) -
10 c at 11 pm 0.8 c at 1.20 am remarkable
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Snowing heavily now in North Newbald and beginning to settle
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WRF high res 12z Looks like a bit of an upgrade for East Yorkshire tonight ( probably Wolds only above 150 m )
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Icon 6z The angle of the pivoting front in the early hours of Thur morning looks well placed for Yorkshire according to Icon 6z ( not too far North ) Snow for some if the dew points are conducive and the front is moving slowly enough for the cold air to " catch up "
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Model output discussion - into the last third of January
Jeremy Shockey replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM 12 z ensemble mean Some opportunities for snow arising from 21st ( mainly North ) until 26th ( further South perhaps ) in this Colder 5 day period coming up after the ' storm '. Then probably an inevitable milder blip before the fun and games of early Feb. GEFS 12z ensembles from earlier suggest that the milder blip doesn't actually last very long ( especially in the North )
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Arome 12 z May be a surprise for some on Thur morning ( Wolds and Moors perhaps this time )
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Harmonie 6z Latest Harmonie 6z still looks quite interesting for parts of Yorkshire ( especially with altitude ) as the slow moving front moves away on Thur morning and the cold air arrives behind it. ( back edge snow anyone ? )
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Icon 12z precipitation t84 Icon 12z precipitation t87 High Ground could do very well in the very early hours of Thur morning as much colder air digs in ( according to the Icon ). Kasim in Buxton for example , but also favoured locations with altitude in Yorkshire. Saturday / Sunday also looking promising more generally for our region as the -8 isotherm pays us a brief visit perhaps on a NorthWesterly flow. GFS 12z 23rd Dec
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GSF 6z Short ensembles . Next cold shot likely to be 23rd / 24th. ( ECM 0z ensembles indicated that timeframe too earlier with -6.5 mean uppers in a Northwesterly flow ) Im not looking much beyond that at the moment.
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ECM 0z ensemble mean Looking towards 23rd / 24th for our next snow opportunity and the mean uppers have improved quite a a bit. ECM 0Z Op @ 168 hrs The Op for Sat 23rd looks good. Just need a shift South so that we are all in the game.
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it was sleet then rain here at about 5 o clock in the morning ...........another bust for lowland East Yorkshire but wasn't really expecting much from this one anyway. roll on 23rd / 24th for our next shot !
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and i was hoping you were a total snow fanatic !
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you would if you lived in Beverley or Hull HC .....and hadn't seen any snow falling for 8 years
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we had some snow at High Hunsley just 3 miles out of North Newbald earlier ( couple of cm ) but melting now
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Sleety rain here in East Yorkshire still ....
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hail here too ........mixed in with freezing rain ......horrid
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agreed Scott it is a nowcast for both Wed and Thur
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we have some freezing rain here in East Yorkshire right now ........really strange stuff and falling on to frozen surfaces ( treacherous out there )
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i dont trust the Icon when it comes to precipitation charts. I reckon most of that will be sleet or rain unless you are above 200 m ( Pennines will probably do well on Thur for snow )
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Arome 0z 1700 hrs Wed Arome 0z 2300 hrs Wed Arome 0z looks potentially good for South Yorkshire from about 5pm and good for North and West Yorkshire from 11pm. East Yorkshire will get snow over the Wolds but may struggle i suspect nearer sea level.
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Many thanks Kasim & Scott , really helpful stuff
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ECM 0z ensemble mean The best trending mean that coldies have had for many days. Greenland High very likely from about 19th. Op very close to the mean throughout.
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Wed 13th Wed 13th looking interesting for high ground. Expecting sleet at lower levels but could see some wet snow for a time before returning to rain
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yes ......im hopeful for 19th / 20th and beyond. We might even get the -12 isotherm into Hull and E Yorkshire at some point this Winter.... you never know ! ( fingers crossed ) ECM 12 z ensemble mean nice looking trend of the mean towards the end.
