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Everything posted by Jeremy Shockey
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First Ground and Air Frost Watch Season 2021-22
Jeremy Shockey replied to damianslaw's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
got down to 0 at Thixendale just before midnight ......but by 7 a.m the cloud had moved in from the west and it was back up to 5 C. i'm still counting this as the first frost for the Yorkshire Wolds of the Autumn -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Jeremy Shockey replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM 0z ensemble mean Looking very promising. Decent mean for the end of June / start of July -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Jeremy Shockey replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM 0z ensemble mean Got to be very happy with the. ECM 0Z mean going forward. We deserve this after that grotty May. Nothing but warm air building. -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Jeremy Shockey replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM 0z ensemble mean Not very inspiring for May and largely unsettled. However we have seen the back of that bitter Arctic air and it will not be cold at least ...i -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Jeremy Shockey replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM 0z ensemble mean Things moving in the right direction perhaps as we head towards the second week of May ( if you want to see the back of this cold air that is !) -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Jeremy Shockey replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM 0z ensemble mean Not liking the trend here much .........go away Winter ,,,it is nearly May !! -
Model output discussion 9th April onwards
Jeremy Shockey replied to minus10's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM 0z ensemble mean Op pretty much out on its own. Lets hope it is wrong. ( i dont care for cold at the end of April ) -
Model output discussion 10/02/21
Jeremy Shockey replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM 0z ensemble mean A bit more encouraging from the ECM 0z this morning if you are looking for a "warm up" later next week. Lets hope that the Op is onto something. -
Model output discussion 10/02/21
Jeremy Shockey replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Spring 2021: Moans, Groans, Ramps and Banter.
Jeremy Shockey replied to Methuselah's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
Go away Winter ...... I really don’t care for snow in April ( and I’m a huge snow lover ) I was just getting used to 20 °C and tennis !!! -
Model output discussion 10/02/21
Jeremy Shockey replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM 0z for 5th March Day 10 Op on the ECM 0z catches the eye a bit but is out on its own within the ensembles. -
Model output discussion 10/02/21
Jeremy Shockey replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Jetstream for March 4th on GFS 12z wow ....can you imagine if the jet actually did this in a couple of weeks time ! -
Model output discussion 10/02/21
Jeremy Shockey replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 12z @ 336hrs It would only need that high to form 100 miles further West and we would be in the game for a potent Northerly to start March. Plenty of cold air still in the vicinity of the British Isles on March 3rd -
Model output discussion 10/02/21
Jeremy Shockey replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
ECM 12 z ensembles One to watch perhaps .......trending down towards the end of the month ! ( a dry cool start to March quite possible with frosts returning ) -
Model output discussion 10/02/21
Jeremy Shockey replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 6z for first day of Spring !!! Cant rule out a cold start to March ! ....one to keep an eye on -
Model output discussion 10/02/21
Jeremy Shockey replied to phil nw.'s topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 12z for 27th Feb High pressure maybe building in at the end of the month. Perhaps something dry , cool or cold for early March with frosts returning . Until then ....enjoy the mild spell over the next 10 days or so ! -
Beast from the East 2021.Post-mortem.
Jeremy Shockey replied to sunnijim's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
9/10 for East Yorkshire ( with hardly any elevation ) Heavy snow for 3 days and drifting ( we hit the streamers ) 7 days of temperatures barely above freezing ( including 3 ice days ) A low of -12 C for my location. Even better on the Wolds where roads are still in the process of being unblocked. Lots of people sledging and even skiing and ice skating Much better than 2017 and up there with 2010 to be honest for this location.