Jeremy Shockey
-
Posts
830 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Everything posted by Jeremy Shockey
-
i saw that too .......snow to rain event mostly for high ground i expect ( not for Hull and East Yorkshire sadly ........our time will come ) -
ECM 0z ensemble mean ECM ensembles trending colder after a very brief mild blip. A good mean this morning Op even interested in something very cold around 15th
-
ECM 0z ensemble mean The Op was one of the coldest in the later stages but the mean is not bad ( after the mild blip ) An improvement in the medium term for coldies as we enter the second half of the month
-
GEFS 0z ensembles things remaining fairly chilly according to the GEFS 0z ensembles after a brief mild spell it will be also very interesting to see the ECM ensemble mean ( later ) after that good ECM 0z Op run
-
Just had a heavy shower in North Newbald that was all sleet , temp still 1.5 c here and dew point of 0.4 c ( the higher Wolds are getting a pasting of snow though )
-
i hope you guys will see something out of it too but i am worried that it runs out of steam a bit after Northumberland , Durham and Cumbria
-
It looks promising for North and West Yorkshire , but poor for East again. That is a decaying front so may be patchy by the time it hits us. ( one to watch )
-
snowing again on top of the Wolds now at 240 m ........but even if you go down to 200 m it is sleety / rain grrrrrrr
-
Nice up top of the Wolds this afternoon
-
Blizzard up at Cot Nab on the Wolds right now IMG_0120.MOV
-
Thanks Andy , i might cycle up to Fridaythorpe later , it will be a bit dicey and a long haul , but probably worth it , James
-
Very disappointing again overnight ! Fri looks to be our next chance ( although it is a decaying front ) moving South. It will probably run out of steam as it approaches Yorkshire. ( i'm getting a bit weary of this chase now ) Aperge 0z Fri 8th
-
Another sleety shower at 04.30 but no intensity ( and moving through too fast ) The main band of showers ( “ stream “ of sorts ) is much further North and not delivering snow there either yet. another bust for East Yorkshire sadly.
-
Scott ....... do you ever sleep mate ?
-
The odd sleet shower here but no snow yet at 4 am.
-
Just for fun......Predictive radar on Accuweather showing streamer hitting Grimsby at about 10.30 ( will then move North throughout the night turning more Wintry)
-
yes agreed Andy ( just been on top of the Wolds 25 mins ago ) and had a heavy sleet shower with hail mixed in. Give it another 5 -6 hours and a drop in temp and we could be in business. ( especially if we pick up one of those streamers in the early hours ) temp now 2.1 c , dew 1.4 c
-
just had a heavy sleet shower which is a good sign for later tonight ( given that it is 4 c with a dewpoint of 3 c now at 2 30 pm ) and my elevation is only 50 m asl
-
if you right are under the intensity of the streamer between 3 am and 9 am with the -8 isotherm over you then it will be probably be snow ( the dew points do look a bit iffy so if you just miss the main streamer then it could be rain or sleet ) .......in my opinion
-
As a rough guide , this streamer could be 50 miles further North or South but looks very promising ( if it hits you ) between 0300 hrs and 0900 hrs tomorrow morning, i just pray for those in Hull and Beverley and all my snow loving friends in "snow starved E Yorkshire" that they get lucky this time
-
Harmonie 0z WRF NMM 0z Dont worry the streamers are still there for Yorkshire and the 850's will be -8 at 4.00 am on Tue morning. The Dew points are also likely to be more favourable than they have been in the last 36 hours . This is the best shot for East Yorkshire but still marginal near coasts and it would be helpful to have a bit of altitude as normal.
-
Was in Hull 50 mins ago and it was 4.5 c and murky with drizzle , no chance of snow ...... let’s hope our Hull friends get something white very soon
-
Harmonie 6z prec. When one of these streamers hits Yorkshire on Tue morning there is going to be some fun. ( especially when you consider that the -8 isotherm is across most of Yorkshire by then )
-
Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards
Jeremy Shockey replied to bluearmy's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GFS 6z short ensembles Very cold up to 9th Jan ........ enough said
-
Model output discussion - Into 2021
Jeremy Shockey replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
GEFS 0z ensembles ECM 0z ensemble mean A lot of spread from both sets of 0z ensembles this morning and much uncertainty after 9th Jan ( with the trend of some warmer 850 hPa temps ) However plenty for coldies to get excited about in the next 5 days with the highest probability of widespread snow chances for the UK since 2018
