Totoro

Any chance that you could update your profile or sig please so we know where you are? :lol: No need to give your exact location, just the county would do. :lol:

Pepping up nicely in the south west now, just hitting the coast according to the radar.

Moderate shower here, 0.3c - settling slightly but not so readily.

It might do, but to me it looks like it's weakening a little.

Very good technical analysis of the situation here: http://www.ukweatherworld.co.uk/forum/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=34424&posts=15 Best to start with the 11Z update near the bottom - looks like we will, as forecast, miss out on the heaviest snow.

Die Hard.

I see blue sky to my west ........ and as others have pointed out more snow gathering to the north and north west on the radar.

Just stopped here. Nearly 2 inches dumped. Temp now -0.6c

Big flakes now, still coming down fairly heavily, temp very slowly rising too, now at -0.8c (must be that less cold air mixed up with this batch). Probably about 1cm of new snow so far.

Not here it's not - I'm near Carmarthen - temp is -1c and it's just started snowing moderately, settling nicely too. From the radar it looks like a nice dollop for us which may last half an hour or so.

Correct. That's IF the low forms there, rotates there, tracks that way, etc, etc. The latest Met Office fax has it a bit further south east. We'll see ...........

Yeah, my generation, but not me personally. I think it's a bleedin' farce and of course blame the lawyers. :lol:

Based on the current projection it looks like south east Wales will see most of the snow, although anywhere could get some. Those in the west (like you and I) won't fare so great, but should see some.

Pathetic - back in my day we walked miles through deep snow to just to GET to school. Etc.

-3c here. Nippy! Thankfully the triple point is still forecast to be off the west coast, so that bodes well. Keep watching them charts, the radar and raintoday. Battle grounds can be great for low levels too if very cold air is well entrenched. :lol:

It's only disappeared from the GFS output, ECM and UKMO still have it. Unfortunately some people seem to get overly depressed at poor output from one model.

That's because Wales is important.

Looking a bit better now, the triple point has vanished and the warm front is now cut off and drifting down the Irish sea on its own: http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/fax/fax36s.gif

Indeed. And down to -0.2c already.

Can't help noticing that it's a little colder today - had a maximum of 2c yesterday while today only got up to 1.1c and has already fallen to 0.5c

True. I should have said sub zero; having lived in the Bristol area during some of the really cold spells of the 70s and 80s I well remember days with a maximum of 0c, full cloud cover, a screaming easterly and then blizzards from channel lows. Happy days ...... well, some of them.

That looks to be the case, BUT I always like to have a bit of lee-way - cloud always raises the temps a shade and any slightly less cold air within an encroaching front from the south west inevitably knocks up the temps by at least a degree or two, even well ahead of the 'true' mild air. Yeah it's cold, but it's not yet VERY cold and certainly not severely cold as some forecasts would have you believe. We also don't have a screaming easterly dragging in very cold air as is often needed to get the cold really deeply entrenched.

Only if we have some very cold air deeply entrenched over us. If that happened now then it's likely that only the high ground and north Wales would have appreciable dumps of snow.

The further east you are the better, those in west Wales are sadly likely to see sleet or rain as there's some less cold air mixed up in the western side of the fronts heading south on Tuesday. Keep watching through, the track may change and if it's further west then that'll help.

I think that some of them secretly work for the trashier tabloids and write the ridiculous headlines that we see when we're due a slight frost.