NorthernRab

A9 shouldn't be closed for too long, even during bad snowfalls. Again, all depends on how bad it is. Expect long delays but to still make it, if a bit tired and jaffa cakesed off

Is -12'C 850 hPa for Scotland from an early December northerly not quite exceptional? From memory -16'C (maybe -17?) is the record and that was during the depths of a cold winter.

You driving or taking the train? You'll be fine if its the latter - Highland mainline can take a lot of snow!

Just the xcweather forecast via mobile. I've never actually checked but I assume it just uses raw GFS data.

Braemar has clearly been a nice boy.

The fact that the forecast snow is less than a week away suggests that it's maybe worth keep an eye on. Some very significant snow fall is possible. However the models are very volatile at the moment so may be best to wait until about 72-98 hours out before looking at the finer details should the snow continue to be forecast.

Currently snowing lightly here

No (though that is a tasty run!) - it was back in maybe January of this year? Big northerly to north easterly I think which showed daytime maxes of -5'C to -12'C across much of Scotland with overnight lows into the -20s? It was quite genuinely the most extreme run I've ever seen in my 10 years of model watching.

'The Scottish ones are taking the p**s out of us again' should be more powerful than any single model run.

Also does anyone have that beaut saved? Asking for a friend.

Innsidh gu dearbh, but you do wonder! We might all yet be covered in Geese answers from above! And not of the nice white variety.

Indeed. Joke maybe missed though!

O mo chreach, some of the hyperbole in the model thread! 'Run of the century', 'country to a standstill' and so on. Does no one remember 'the masterpiece' last year?

I thought we'd all agreed back in 2014 to call it the Aleutian high when it was term of the year?

Covering of snow here with occasional heavy snow showers (bit wet at times during lighter showers). Higher parts of the city have a covering, others dont. Some are going to have very icy roads come the morning! Pretty decent for late autumn with a great northern hemispheric pattern going forward into early winter!

That we look to be getting a reload? If so then, yes.

Sounds like you might have missed the snow between 8:30 until 11 or so (certainly looked white down to sea level on the Black Isle). A brief fleeting affair (though a little more to come over the next 24 hours?) - early doors yet and hopefully the first of many!

A covering of snow here and currently snowing heavily

I despise this stuff - beautiful though it is, it creeps me out personally. Hoar > hair. Its a philosophy that's served me well in life thus far.

GFS wants to give 20cm of snow here in a week's time. Now, that's never going to happen, but it does go to show that a lot can happen in a polar maritime / northerly flow so an open mind is needed. And winters not even in yet

They look pretty similar to me. GFS a bit better going forward.

Indeed, both show riding to the west with northerly winds bring much colder temperatures south, particularly to Scotland, N. Ireland and the north of England.

I have a calla lily which just produced a really sad looking flower out of the blue.

Let alone Inverness, Aberdeen and Aviemore!

Makes a difference from the one big low of this thread! The 12hz is actually really interesting and would produce some potent northerly blasts / settled periods with very low temps for November, particularly to Scotland. However, the volatility is such that, until we get some actual consistency between runs let alone between models, it's best to take all these runs with a big pinch of salt. It's been a few years since we've had a nice area of high pressure with cold 850 hPa temps though (see attached charts)