NorthernRab

Much better heights over Greenland at just over a week away.

I have indeed. I said that major urban centres could well see snow and disruption (certainly nowhere near feet of snow!) but some might miss out. It's so difficult to tell at this range and the ppn charts are merely illustrative. GFS 06hz Glasgow, Inverness, Stirling, Belfast, perhaps Perth (over 2.5 million people) potentially seeing a spell of snow there. GFS 00hz corroborates GFS 06hz: Northern England and Northern Ireland (again) in the firing line there. Ppn charts at this range are somewhat academic as the closer we get, the more we'll know but certainly I'd say there's potential there. What we do know though is that a NW flow with cold to very cold uppers (for the air direction) is likely from Tuesday. Snowfall to be confirmed but certainly there is the potential for some disruptive (if not exactly record breaking) snow next week.

Large swathes of the UK and Ireland might well see significant snow - the detail can't be pinned down at the this range. Certainly though Scotland (including the cities with a combined urban population in the millions), N.Ireland (Belfast) and parts of Wales and Northern England (again, millions in the urban areas) are in the firing line. I certainly would not call this a fuss over nothing.

Stronger sun / longer days doesn't really become such an issue here until mid March, as you'll discover next week

Is that the distant sound of a certain Masterpiece I hear? GFS 12hz...

As ever, chasing fantasy easterlies at 300 hours+ when decent enough northerlies in the next week that could upgrade nearer to the time are cast aside! If I'm to put my model beer can hat on I'd take a northerly followed by easterly to north easterly then a north westerly please!

Certainly not a bog standard toppler, see my post above!

Don't! 15 inches of snow here from that and every school in Highland closed for 3 days. The GFS is certainly reverting to the ECM those so I wonder if we'll see something of a halfway house or a full climb down from the GFS?

What a change 48 hours brings, tropical in comparison to the weeks just gone at 9'C. I'm very optimistic about the rest of winter though - nice to see the models all agreeing on very cold air making its way into Scandinavia / the high north. One thing I've noticed about this winter is that heights over Greenland have been continuously underestimated by the models. Considering even the GFS is sniffing the idea of height rises over Iceland and east Greenland, there's plenty to be hopeful about!

That's the snow on here! Started light and was really struggling but now turning heavy.

Few photos from Inverness today during a walk with the dogs. Currently -6'C but with a wind chill in the order of -11'C / -12'C

We've got about 15cm here and currently snowing moderately!

We've had quite persistent moderate snow now for the past hour from the same small shower - looks like the Beauly Firth might be producing snow showers?

Covering of snow here with more snow incoming on the radar, looks potentially the heaviest we've had yet.

Heavy snow here!

Now that is a very pretty sight! Lightning so far detected at Ullapool, the Solway Firth and St.Kilda. Snow showers becoming intense over Skye and the southern inner Hebrides.

Temp down to 1'C here with showers incoming.

The GFS 12hz shows heavy snow to low levels in the north of Scotland on Wednesday. Inverness, Aberdeen etc aren't the mountains. Around a million people live in the areas around and between the two cities.

Interesting that it's quite high on the 'impact' axis of the met warning system, suggesting the potential for something quite notable!

Case in point. And that's just day one!

Re next week, I think the models are definitely going to struggle with identifying the snow showers which will hit Scotland with many penetrating well in land and even towards the east. Shorter range models will be key and likely a great deal of nowcasting. Very interesting setup!

Fairly odd night temperature wise, -6'C early doors, up to -1'C, down to -6'C, up to -2'C and down to -7'C. Currently 0'c. Putting on my local meteorologist hat, long drawn week southerly winds often lead to very cold temperatures in the Highlands. Given that a couple days of relatively 'milder' weather is incoming via strengthening southerly winds today, it could just be that the area was just on the cusp between homegrown cold and southern air mass?

-7.3'C here this morning, could dip a bit further yet!

-12'C and -13'C uppers from the early December northerly following a pronounced mid Atlantic ridge into Greenland if my memory serves me right. This set up is completely different though with much more in the way of low pressure, wind and of course it's a westerly. The Scottish ski resorts will be delighted with the outlook. Alongside the snow enthusiasts up here of course as we're in for a treat!

I hope it doesn't turn out exactly like that as it would be a bit frustrating for the likes of myself, Northern Strath and HC! Westerlies / north westerlies normally deliver quite well here so I'm optimistic about next week. All depends on how that low progresses across the Atlantic but I'm very much liking the look of things at this point!