NorthernRab

Don't worry, same in Inverness! Curse of the easterlies!

Completely true (probably of most winters!) which is why I never begrudge folk elsewhere in the country a big Easterly event, despite the fact that they're largely useless for us up here. Funnily enough the weekend onward looks to be potentially more interesting for us!

Except from the inch or so of snow we got on Monday night, we've had a grand total of....0cm. Wall to wall sunshine normally with an occasional very light shower of fine snow. Despair!

I'm currently sat watching the penguins at Edinburgh zoo enjoying the snow live because we have hee-haw here. https://www.edinburghzoo.org.uk/webcams/penguin-cam/ They are having a rare time!

Right, there might be hope for us yet. That line of intense showers to the north of Aberdeen is at the right angle now.

Everything completely missing us here unfortunately

I wouldn't.

Wind has gone NErly here: 0'C dewpoint of -7'C and heavy showers forming in the firth!

Oh I will not be happy if it pans out exactly like that!

Currently just west of Stavanger - will be a few hours yet until we get an idea of how it's going to pan out.

Wouldn't let me edit my above post but this looks promising for tonight into tomorrow morning for us @Hairy Celt @Northern Strath

Knife edge really - all depends on the flow on the firth. Can make all the difference between dry as a bone and 20cm of snow.

The charts I posted were from 00:00 Tuesday and 9AM Tuesday (the 9am chart to illustrate that the snow may well make it inland). Here's 3AM and 6AM Heavy snow for you

As I mentioned above, plenty time and room for surprises. GFS 12hz adds a lot more strength to the feature approaching on Monday night / midnight Tuesday. Which in turn means that the snow reaches central / western parts where before there was none. Realignment of the Icelandic high means that very low 850hPa temps make it across the whole of Scotland from Norway... ...compare earlier run: to the GFS 12hz: Stay tuned!

Fun and games look to be starting from about Monday / Tuesday next week. I'll be keeping an eye over the next couple of days to see if we get decent alignment for the Highlands. I wouldn't rule out a fair few surprises further west - in such an unstable and very cold air flow, anything could go down!

Oh my! That's screaming very heavy snow for central Highland. Most of northern Scotland in fact!

A week today - and look what's peering over the North Sea at us! I swear if HC, Northern Strath and I don't get a beautiful north easterly event out of this then I'm going to have to leave this thread and starting hanging out in the model one.

Cold air advection, i.e. cold air in places that it normally isn't (in this context).

Think GFS will still develop a Greenland / Icelandic high of some description, small trigger low (seen forming over the Azores) to encourage warm air up towards Iceland via high pressure but we shall see.

Seems to be up to -3'C above Cape Dorset now?

Would it not be wiser to wait for the ensembles to see the broader picture? Not sure we should be talking about the wheels coming off due to one run?

All very speculative at the moment, but great to see some very potent north easterlies modeled out in stupid territory. @Hairy Celt @Northern Strath @Northernlights Take note, the fabled Moray Firth streamer might be on the cards!

Well I see they have utterly lost their minds on the model thread again.

All white here! Lovely sunny but chilly winter's day

Slightly puzzled by the mood of despair in the model thread this morning considering the next week looks like a polar maritime airmass will dominate and going forward there seems to be clear signals for blocking at high latitudes. Considering the SSW doesn't even occur until early next week and the fact that any downwelling from the stratosphere leading to more favourable tropospheric conditions will take weeks as opposed to days, why on earth are they all complaining that an easterly isn't showing in the medium term? Especially given the fact that NWP is so volatile at the moment! Feeling very positive about the coming month and early March but baffled, as always.