La Bise

A couple of points: - MB gave a very precise forecast and indicated a very high degree of confidence. Had it been a more general pattern forecast, I doubt there would have been much criticism. Live by the sword, die by the sword or something along those lines... - No explanation other than something straight out of a New Age pamphlet about the method. Contrary to what some seem to assume, I'm pretty open minded about new ideas but I do resent being thrown a few vapid explanations that seem to be completely at odds with everything we know about our atmosphere and indeed life in general. I did not, nor did any of the sceptics come up with those statements that seem to be completely glossed over in favour of an "everything is possible" approach. I've highlighted them in a previous post. No one does forecast as precise and as far in time as MB has done using conventionnal methods, demanding of the sceptics to put up or shut up in some kind of competition is neither here nor there. It would be a bit like asking people doubting someone saying he can fly to jump themselves out of the building and do better... I've had an interest in many things people, some that would even have some of MB's biggest supporters wince in disbelief, and one recurring problem that crops up when you investigate an anomalistic subject is that of "knowledge by arcane", someone claims to holds an essential truth that would give an explanation for the anomaly studied and much more beside but refuses to divulge anything but tantalising and/or bewildering snippets. That leaves the investigator in a quandary as nothing can be tested rigorously. The investigation, even if some or the entirirty of the anomaly is hard to explain in more conventionnal terms, generally dies as we are then in a situation which you could call as "revelation truth" and we enter another realm together, that of belief and faith statements.

I find your statistical excersise very interesting RJS, it's particularly good to see how models evolve their scenarios and the correlation between different runs and indeed models.

Harsh Climate is hereby authorised to talk on my behalf on this thread, splendid post Sir! I have my own little prediction at play here, so far I'm quite confident it will come to pass (see previous posts for what it is)

Woah, can we leave Einstein out of this please...? AB published many papers, for peer review by his fellow mathematicians and they quickly understood the validity of his theories as he worked within the field. Nothing to do with the current situation here. (Got your pm OMM, back to you asap)

Excellent OldMetMan, I'm glad to read that. I'd love to reply but I've promised to behave (not as the result of a complaint I hasten to add, my own decision). If you are really, really keen ( you never know...) to hear as to why I think you are completely wrong re your comment about belief system, message me otherwise, good day to you Sir

Sorry Paul...

Let me consult the Ancients from the vantage point of the 4th dimension MB and I'll get back to you with something sensible...

Call my cynical, but how many of the MB fan's club member here are fond of calling into question the competence and/or integrity of meteorologists and climatologists at the Met Office? Maybe the Met guys/gals should start to use tea leaves or frog's entrails, no doubt they will be lauded for their bravery and open mindedness...

It is quite incredible to read that MB high quackery is put alongside the work of GP as FFO aludes above... GP works his socks off, alongside many others, to put in a place a method that could indeed represent an important step into predictive meteorology, working with observable data, published material, an entire body of work that can be reviewed. Obviously it is the same that some fantasist that believes he is tapping into some ancient civilisation advanced knowledge and that, with time, could predict every event on Earth, as some kind of God of Nature.

All quotes are from MB, the post number is just above. My comments are in Italics. #58 "I could be proved wrong, but I cannot see how this forecast will not come to pass. If this forecast is not closely fulfilled, I shall spend an awful long time probably trying to work out where it all went wrong! If my level of expectation of the 12 Nov ’10 prediction was say 75% positive; my expectation for this forecast is considerably higher. So here it is folks, the Great North Sea Storm of 2011 that should (if it happens) go down in history" Not much wriggle room in term of the forecast #64 If you like, I deal in the underlying constituent waveforms that when combined produce the weather. The constituent waveforms are very easy to predict and if one knows the “weight†of each of their influence on the end product when combined, it is relatively easy to predict the “chaotic†composite waveform. Nothing that I will write will be new. It has been known for aeons; how do I know that? Well there are clues everywhere. For example, every time I look at my watch I am reminded. Only someone who had an intimate knowledge of how nature works would divide the day into 24 equal divisions, why didn’t they choose 22 or 20? They chose 24 for a specific reason. Also, why does the watch face only have 12 divisions, why not 24? One can come up with theories all day long, but there is only one right answer and that answer can only be provided by those that have an intimate understanding of how Nature unravels. Please don’t get me wrong, I am still learning and not speaking from any lofty position. Take one on the theory behind the forecast. Answer is available to some initiates, the 24h division of the day put forward by the Egyptians aquire a mystical symbolism. I suggest to google "Circadian cycle" to understand the significance of 24. Basic science. #83 Well the ancients for example built the Great Pyramid of Giza and we still don’t know how they did it. Complete dog biscuits, we know perfectly well how they built it, it's not rocket science to pile up stones. In answer to your questions, everything that happens within the Earth’s atmosphere (ie: weather, lottery numbers, the financial markets, wars, the twists and turns of one’s life) is wholly predictable; nothing is chaotic. Just as it says on the tin! Let's happily put forward insane notions, all you need is enough "open minded" people and off you go... Without going too much off in a tangent, the validity of this assertion can never be accepted/understood if one observes Nature from the point of view of the third dimension; one needs to raise one’s level of consciousness to see the unravelling of Nature from a higher dimension, such as the fourth. It’s a bit like a garden 10ft high hedge maze, it’s easier to find your way out if you could see it from a live real time camera giving you a bird’s eye view from above. More of it. In my view, the enlightened ancients may not have had Sky HD 3D TV’s, mobile i phones or the internet; but they didn’t need any of that, they used much faster and better means of communicating (and most importantly, gathering understanding of Natures Laws). What we have now is a “crystal set†version of what they had at their disposal. I believe, we have it too, but we have lost the art of using it. And another layer on top of it...An ancient civilisation with means of communications of such advanced nature our current setup is a mere toy... I was talking to a friend yesterday about what if the forecast does not come good; in such a scenario, it would open the door to hopefully seeing the even longer cycles within Nature. However, as I have said in the video, I cannot see how the forecast cannot come to pass near to what has been forecasted. One of the “checks†I referred to in #59 was the storm we had on 10 March 2008; that happened via the same “methodâ€, that was one “validation†of the 1-5 Feb 2011 forecast. Still pretty certain although an element of doubt has been introduced, something that has steadily crept into MB posts upon realising his forecast is not going to pass. Going for the sympathy vote, a bit of drizzle and a breeze will have enough people "convinced" there is some validity in that "theory".

Do I detect a note of sarcasm here? I do not think you actually read his initial posts (or his posts on other forums) or you wouldn't be so rude about his methods. Besides, what you have just posted only proves my point that MB is speaking heresy as far as some are concerned. What cannot be understood is ridiculed, it's been happening for centuries. I have actually read his initial posts, you clearly haven't because what is mentionned in my piece above is something MB has come up himself. At least I'm glad you detected the sarcasm in my post...I wish you were equally good at distinguishing between open mindedness and open mouthed gullibitliy... To preserve certain egos, let’s hope no one comes up with any alternative/better methods for forecasting the weather. Yes, let’s keep the current method and continue to witness enormous human loss and suffering around the globe each year through adverse weather (that was never forecasted in sufficient time to properly warn people). Afterall, what is the value of a few thousand lives around the globe each year, compared to the value we place in the protection of our egos? Usual martyr syndrome, another one...

I get the feeling here that some posters really want MB's forecast to fail because should it prove close to the mark, it would seriously undermine conventional forecasting methods. We are looking at a radical departure from accepted ideas on how atmospheric systems come about, that's kind of heretical to some folk unfortunately It would undermine the very understanding of our universe, rewrite history, most probably make a mockery of a number of fundamental laws of physic (wild guess here...) as MB makes it quite clear, in his initials posts on here that his method is one that has been passed on by an ancient civilisation that had means of communications far surpassing ours, an intimate knowledge of nature far surpassing ours and that in order to gather that knowledge you need to attain a kind of higher sphere of consciousness, possibly through some kind of time travel method (assuming when he talks about 4thd dimension, it is the intended popular convention about time being the 4th dimension). MB would be, on Netweather and a few other selected websites, basically overthrow the very fundament of our civilisation. We're not talking about some guy who think some factors not yet recognised by the dreaded drones of meteorological academia do have an influence on our weather, we're talking about someone on the brink of offering a first proof towards something of cosmic grandeur... Or he is just a very naughty boy...

Erm...Can someone translate that for me? :blush: Please...

Thanks Stewart, looks like february will be a busy month for me, I was right to keep a few days off in the kitty and my tents are going to see much usage... Any thoughts on March/April btw or is it something you keep under wrap for a spring forecast on the site?

My usual question GP but PPN wise, any modification or is Atlantic air getting into the mix likely to be mostly influential further to our NW in term of PPN?

Who is who then? I'm a taciturn, strikingly handsome man of action and adventure, so I'll claim the "The Good"...

Is this turning into a parody of "The good, the bad and the ugly"...?

I do understand chaos theory is not there to explain away what we do not understand but rather as a solid mathematical proposition that has application in many fields, meteorology being a prime example of a chaotic system, one we have been observing for a while. The notion that it an entirely predictable system is one that refutes the most basic tenets of mathematics, physics and a whole batch of other -ics... MB certainly has claimed earlier in the thread that ALL events within our atmosphere are predictable, his first tentative steps were on the markets so he said. It's all on his thread unless some editing has taken place. In order to do so, you need to gather a forgotten ancient knowledge that allowed our ancestors to have an all encompassing understanding of Nature (N capital, important) which has you taking an overview as if moving across a yet to be defined 4th dimension. Maybe MB is a time traveller...? PS I rather go up there alive, just a few more thousands to save...

At no point in my post do I advocate passive observation, it's merely a comment on the nature of chaos and the dangers to pretend that some mysterious force/pattern underpins our lives and all events on Earth and make them as predictable as the consequences of eating a dodgy kebab...Ultimately, MB meta-theory is that ALL events on our planets are predictable thanks to the method he studies. Are you intellectually at ease with that notion? I think it would prove rather more complicated to disprove what MB says than you think, in fact I would say it's practically impossible, no one has managed to disprove the existence of God and indeed most religious beliefs. PS We only sparkle for a short time btw...Near infinity is for the universe, not us...

I guess MB could contact the Daily Express, that's exactly the kind of stuff they go for. If he can find an angle about immigrants and accentuate what it would do to house prices, he's in the money I'd say...

If this storm is to pass, it will be within forecast range soon enough and appropriate measures will be taken. Do you seriously think anyone would order evacuations and measures based on some guy posting forecasts on the internet based on a method no one knows anything about...?

Plenty have tried to set up shop and dispense alternative forecasts, against the dreaded "establishement", so far no one has become rich with it. Maybe because the men in black have silenced them, most probably because they never managed to do so in a convincing manner. You posit something which is essentially at odds with our understanding of the atmosphere, that there are not only cycles of which most climatologists are aware but also further and much more specific repetitions that allow anyone with an ad-hoc methodology to forecast at will days, weeks, months or indeed years in advance. You have given glimpses of your method which seems to be based on ancient knowledge at a time when humanity seemed to have an understanding that goes beyond ours. When you consider how unreliable evidence from our ancient past can be, how much of it is rich in figurative symbolism, riddled with misinterprations of phaenomea not yet understood and how much we apply our own intepretation of the event, the whole approach seems extremely suspect... (see "Ancient Astronauts" for a good example on how figurative art can seem to represent modern day UFOs when it does nothing of the sort). Chaos is the only ruler of our universe, within it there is a modicum of order but essentialy, the nature of the cosmos, life on our planet and indeed our own lives is of a chaotic nature, myriads of possibilities lie ahed in the future and anything from the tiniest detail to catastrophic events will influence the flux of the space-time continuum (or rather the flux we are aware of within our sensory limitations). To claim you see patterns and indeed being able to wholly predict events of any kind has precious little to do with reality as we understand it and dwelve deep into mysticism. As we are mortal creatures blessed (or doomed) with the awareness of our finite lifespan, we seek patterns, order, evidence of an intelligence behind the chaos, to allievate our fears. We do so because it who we are, pattern seekers yet if you were to take a step back and cooly examine the situation, the conclusion would always be that we are mere sparkles in a near infinite sea of light and pretending to hold answers is the mere wish of a distraught kid unable to accept what we are, sentient animals who are born, live and die, like all life... Which leads us back to the weather, probalistic forecast is the best we can do and is likely to remain the same for a long time if forever. We can speculate rather well on broad trends but pinpointing a particular event in the future is like gambling on horses. Sorry, got a cold, does funny things with my head...

Paul, Corbyn tells people exactly what they want to hear and make them feel a million dollar because he will pander to their ego: you think for yourself, don't listen to that rubbish coming from the "Elites", you'll know better if you are willing to listen to me, you're right about it being a tax scam by the left etc, etc There's one born every minute too...

And will no doubt be hailed a success by the kind of gullible contrarians crawling all over the internet, if there is so much as a sniff of wind and a bit of drizzle on that day... But let's wait and see...

Yeah Jethro, sadly it's best leave it there... Back to subject, what next for MB if this mega storm does not come to pass? Blame political correctness maybe?