La Bise

I do seem to remember you mentionning a global communist plot as well, through the UN possibly? Everybody is corrupt, the elites are a mafia and only you and a few select friends are pure enough to fight against it... Complete utter car crash of a thread really, great fun to read mind...

I agree Data, just using it as a commonly accepted terminology on here for this kind of setup but there is indeed nothing "faux" about any kind of cold...

Talking to GP last year about this, I proposed a possible analogue would be that two weeks period in Feb 2008 when temps during the day were very mild but there was plenty of faux-cold to be had at night (and frost would resist quite well in the shade in the uplands even during the day).

An excellent idea. I would suggest to actually close the "Tech" thread so that any high level posts can appear on thew new "Restricted" thread instead. Another idea would be to keep membership open, adding new members if and when required, the "Normal" model thread could be seen as a testing ground so that other valuable posters can prove themselves before being "promoted". The Model thread is the flagship of the forum, it would be nice to think everybody's opinion is welcome and of equal standing but the reality is quite different. No hidden agenda btw, I'll never be part of that thread and rarely if ever contribute as I do not think my musings are worth the pixel they are written on when it comes to model intrepretation. A modest attitude that I encourage others to adopt, if it's to read another "18Z shows mega cold at T384, winter is back" followed 6 hours later by "0z is showing mild at T384, winter is over", well...

A couple of points: - None of the models do come with a 100% guaranteed hit rate, they are speculative scenarios. Very few if any forecasters issue a 100% guaranteed forcecast. MB has and has also pointed out the margin of error he allows himself is tiny. Very bold of him and on that aspect, he has clarified things a lot. The verification of his February forecast will need to be extremely close to his forecast to verify, by HIS own conditions. If that canard that nasty sceptics are giving him a hard time could be dropped now, ta very much... - MB has no commercial interest in his method, as he has stated many times already so any notion he is keeping it for himself as he has to earn a living is not really relevant. Which begs the question why so much secrecy? A broad outline would suffice really, one that makes a bit more sense than what has been said previously. I do suspect MB has actually sterner test conditions for his experiment than a number of people who would be quite happy and have indeed been quite happy to give the thumbs up to his method despite notable failings. It is a well known effect of the human brain, our capacity to blank out what does not tie up with our convictions in order to highlight what does. You only have to look at the money been made by astrologists and their haphazard, vague and banal predictions...

Excellent comment Paul. I'm expecting nothing less than a spot-on forecast, the man himself said he was nearly 100% sure about it, as he had lots more control variables to verify. It's all written on this thread, including the much more recent lowering of expectations when faced with a bit of probing. I've given up on having an explanation being given, it's quite clear nothing will be said aside some gnomic utterances which I'm not even convinced are actual clues. I wish people would stop confusing a desire to understand what seems to be outright quackery (do any of you really believe all events on Earth can be predicted, from a persepctive of the "fouth dimension" thank to some "ancient wisdom"...?) with being close-minded and unreceptive.... Do not confuse "open minded" with "gullible". I'm open minded to new ideas, I find RJS comments about his method very interesting and it's clear he has worked a lot on it, testing it and accumulating material. I'll leave to others to analyse it and declare it good/bad. Anyhow, stil interested to see how that forecast pans out

On the contrary, when you claim to hold a method that has the potential to basically predict anything that can happen on Earth, you better lay down a few cards rather than some gnomic utterances about the fourth dimension and ancient wisdom. That could enable others to conduct their own experiments incidentally. Open knowledge and all that...

I do find the idea that only a book would give Method X the thorough explanation it deserves quite puzzling in this day and age unless it is seen as an hommage to the great elders who had no need for such modern tools as the internet where entire lives are published nevermind books... Anyhow, this is beginning to sound more and more like some strange excercise in hooking an audience then coming up with the most arcane utterings you can think of thus keeping everyone on tenderhooks as to what is behind it. The very precise forecast, 100% accurate or thereabouts according to the man himself, could prove to be a red herring, if not too far from reality, enough will believe there is something rather than just a bit of clever statistical gambling. Anyhow, we shall see...

Interesting explanation RJS, thanks for that.

MB - a few points, some of your comments do need commenting (certainly from my end) - I do understand it's not related to a met issue but the very essence of you method encompasses mattters going way beyond that... - We pretty well know how the Pyramids were built, with lots of money and specialised labourers (not slaves actually), the scale is awesome even by modern standards but the method is not particularly complex. It's a staple of crypto-historian but like ETH ufos, pretty much dead in the water... - If everything is predictable, by all means, provide me with winning numbers for the lottery or some football scores and whilst you are at it, how come you do not have used that knowledge yourself to free yourself even more for your studies from base material concerns...? I would love give up working now and then and dedicate myself to walk the hills, climb mountains and camp in the wilderness... - Observe nature from a higher sphere? Faster and better means of comminucations? I'm all for Shamanism but the methods back then were first and foremost symbolic and attained through hallucinogenics, amongst people whose understanding of the world was unsphosticated to say the least so verification of their wonders is bound to be slightly haphazard... They might have had some insight into those wondruous Laws of Nature but that did not prevent most of them living short, brutish, illness ridden lives that would have a hard drinker/smoker in Glasgow look a healthy old man... Jon Mitchell fan btw MB?

Ah, I could have sworn there was an astrological subtext to this...Numerology maybe then? Maybe our man will give us a few more clues (I was going to check on that piston heads forum but judging by K1000 comment, the clues seem to lead to cul-de-sac.

Stars/Planets alignements Candice, there is a vast body of work at disposal, it's cyciical, minimize significantly the number of difficult variables, it has been going for 5 millenia and with modern tools, producing charts for any given day is not particularly complicated. The only downer is availability of met data if the alignement does not recur often (which provides a handy reason to explain a failure...). That's my own take on this new method, with also his liking for BFTP and RJS who also use a similar method (despite being very coy about it, I think it's what's implied in BFTP clues when I asked for an explanation) as a further indicator. Anyhow, I'm most curious to see how all this pans out.

Interesting forecast, hopefully it will never come to pass. The number 24 is significant in so much as it is related to something that affects all life on Earth, the Circadian rhythm, well worth a read about it, fascinating stuff. The Egyptian were the first to divide the day in 24 hours it seems based on archeological findings. The number 12 significance has Biblical origins in our culture. Numbers do often have mystical meaning associated to them, as human being we do tend to seek patterns, an evolutionnary byproduct when our ancesters had mainly their wits to survive on and evolved something truly unique to us human, self-aware sentience. To this day we like to ascribe meanings to our chaotic universe, our brains simply don't cope very well with disorder it seems hence the rise of religions, superstitions, etc, etc Ancient knowledge is often mentionned in hushed tones as if our ancesters had a far deeper understanding of our planet than our current civilisation. They also worshipped an incredible amout of divinities, practiced human sacrifice, thought the sun was a tiny warm blob in the sky, that stars were angels flying, that the Earth was flat, etc, etc, etc. Let's not descend into mystical worship of our past, we have an exponentially greater understanding of how our planet works, how our mind works, how our body works, we would appear as nothing short of gods to someone who lived 5000 years ago. I suspect method X is related to astrology (12...although it should be 13 really if "ancient knowledge" was really taken into account). Anyhow, interesting read, you should contact Fortean Times or even propose an article, that's the kind of stuff they go for (excellent magazine, I suscribe to it).

I would be interested in verifiable evidence for that assertion that lunar and solar cycles are drivers for the NAO, AO and the likes, you seem to have become very assertive about this in recent months yet there is scant evidence to be found in academic studies (El Ebro observatory in Spain did a research which came up with some interesting results, particularly in term of rain) . This is a typical take on lunar influence: http://content.usatoday.com/communities/sciencefair/post/2010/10/rainfall-precipitation-moons-phase-research-weather-folklore/1?csp=34tech

Interesting read John, a much simpler form of it is a standard part of mountain walking manuals actually, to help us judge what conditions we can expect on the tops compared to the valley floor in respect to the various types of air masses floating around.

Thanks GP. That was actually the most interesting part of your forecast (in term of my own gratification) and it struck me we could have a repeat of last year which was incredibly dry for a long time (spending a lot of time in the great outdoors, it was quite striking to see the effects on the countryside/hills/mountains but farmers were rather concerned....). Another question, possibly one going beyond your remit but your forecast introduce "milder" conditions by january. This would preclude much of any snow related fun at low levels but with a likely NW direction for our ppn, would I be wrong to assume upland in the West and North West could see some good conditions at higher levels? (Baring in mind obviously the general lack of ppn the pattern you envisage would cause)

GP, when you published your forecast and in some of your comments before, you mentionned a rather dry outlook for later in the winter. Is that something that still stands or do you see new variables than could change that?

There is one glaring problem when dealing with alternative forecasts method without control, access to the whole range of conventionnal methods so how can the veracity of the alternative method can be verified? Up to what point that alternative method plays a part as opposed to good knowledge of orthodox methodology? Short of locking up in a room those people, with only their chosen alternative method to forecast, no one can be sure...

I'm more inclined to think he is into astro-meteorology...

Mods delete this at your ease but I just want to say "I love you" to GP...

GP, if you got it right, I'll be a happy bunny, as a hiker and budding wildcamper, dry and cold is the holy winter grail for me... Excellent point by Essan re media/MetO, just have a look at the Daily Mail take on GP's forecast actually...

Yup, sign me up too. I've got a new tent (and probably sleeping bag)to test this winter and I need proper conditions (snow storm one day/-15c the day after....would be perfect) up the moors...

I spend a lot of times in areas that are generally very wet (eg Peak District) and normally, I do so with wateproof boots, gaiters, even if the sun is out as the ground is boggy, peaty and muddy (sometimes all at the same time...) but at the moment my gaiters are in a bag at home and unless rain is forecast, I put on my mesh trainers that are like sponge yet my feet remain dry. I spent 4 hours traipsing around the bogs on the moorlands above Tintwistle (Longendale) a week ago and my feet were dry, despite wearing those trainers, which is highly unusual. Today I walked past the reservoirs above Whalley Bridge and they don't look in great shape. It has even affected me in term of what amount of water I carry, I normally have a filter bottle (Travel Tap) and simply refill at streams or tarns but a lot of them are dried out and I've found myself having to chase a spring on a number of times or filter some pond water (no concern about the filter but dirty water clogs it quicker). I even recently camped up Derwent Edge and pitched on a dried peat bog, very confy as it happens like a memory foam mattress but the wind blew dust inside my tent, it felt like I camped by a beach...which is not what you expect in that part of the world... And that's in a fairly wet part of the country...

some without any top on, males unfortunately One of the reasons I'm never that bothered with summer in the UK...

Incredibly dry on the hills as well, even the dreaded bogs on Red Moss in the Yorkshire Dales have shrunk to nowt. Most streams are bone dry as well.