La Bise

426 posts on Netweather and you haven't noticed PC is merely a bad joke to most people on here...

Posting that LRF are a waste of time is a far bigger waste of time yet it is still being done...

I do not with great interest a return to dry weather, whilst it does not do much for day time temperatures and indeed ppn, it does bring more frosts. If November were to be along those lines, it would be in mark contrast with previous Novembers (which will be good news for people in Cumbria amongst other places I'd wager...)

Dry and cold is perfect for me, in fact the entire forecast so far sounds right up my street with a bit more ppn for the latter part of the lrf. The last thing we'd need is yet another monsoon november...

Got you Aaron, so really this is yet another example of the Warmist Conspiracy, they craftily drew a map of Greeland in summer whilst the older map was based on winter conditions?

I'm not entirely sure what you're trying to say CH, that map makers are making this up? It certainly is a powerful image to see the two Greenland maps...

Cripes, do you think he is friend with that chap who used the wisdom of the ancients to predict mega-storms (and how the govt should be told and do something about it...) and kept us amused for a while earlier in the year...?

Another one cheering on Roger for those dates...

Quite an effort by Downpour, maybe he should follow his own advice and go discuss London weather only somewhere else and let this thread be UK wide, as are its contributors...

Maybe before wanting to change the "LRF industry", actually having a working understanding of meteorology might be useful..."Fresh ideas" might be great in the advertising industry, but it's hard science we are talking about.

You did, a little frame at the end after an endless sequence of storm pictures with dramatic music to hammer the (erroneous) point again and again and again.... Stop playing dumb MB, you know perfectly well what you are doing with that video, your "candid appraisal" sounds about as sincere as an insurance salesman pointing out to the small prints after refusing a claim... What bugs me is the way you whine about Coast comments when the guy did his outmost to be fair to you all the way up to the end of your forecast period and put lots of work in it.

To my untrained eye, february did not pan out as I thought it would based on GP's thoughts, it certainly felt rather more damp than I thought it would be. Maybe a misunderstanding on my part or I'm being guilty of a NW bias...

I'm sorry Roger but this comes straight to my mind after that latest batch of revelations... Denzil Dexter speaks The moon is made of cheese and the stars are the souls of the dead anyhow, everybody knows that...:lol:

I've fount very interesting to see how people dealt with the situation on the model thread. Despite a)repeated comments by the Met guys that models do struggle with that kind of setup and B) the events of November/December when another block situation proved very hard to forecast, there seems to be a large consensus that modelisations do really represent a fair picture of what might happen. Which might be right in some situations but in this case, some much depends on tiny variables that human input, the capacity to forecast rather than interpret model is very much a must. That's for me is the main difference between enthusiastic amateurs and the Met chaps, that capacity to call upon human judgement much more effectively.

Although we diverge at opposite angles when it comes to the philosophical core of the issue (deterministic vs chaotic), it has been a pleasure reading your interventions VP. Good luck in your quest, even if it is not achievable it's best to give it a jolly good go if so is your inclination (I have my own quests, almost certainly futile, but this what defines us as human beings, our capacity to overcome rationnal to follow our dreams). Wonder what happend to MB, maybe on the blower with the Wise Ancients asking what went wrong...?

The bit about the sun being made of metal is...interesting. I'd like to see Hawking face if he were to read this mind...

:blink:

What I want to know is when it's going to get a bit drier...I'm almost hoping for that blessed mid-atlantic ridge, even a euro/uk high to set up so I can go pitch myself up in the mountains and enjoy a nice evening gazing at the stars...

A question I've asked myself many times Oz...

Darboard analogy, football analogy...Inventive crowd on here

Erm...I'm not arguing against looking for patterns in a chaotic system, that's what most scientists are striving to do, I'm arguing against the idea that everything fit in a nice little straighjacket with an explanation for everything if only you look hard enough. This presupposes a kind of deterministic order that essentially turns us into pawns in some kind of game. Which is where the emergence of chaos theory has been an important step into moving science away from any religious/superstitious hangover. Naff all to do with religious belief systems...

Before: I could be proved wrong, but I cannot see how this forecast will not come to pass. If this forecast is not closely fulfilled, I shall spend an awful long time probably trying to work out where it all went wrong! If my level of expectation of the 12 Nov ’10 prediction was say 75% positive; my expectation for this forecast is considerably higher. After: The "method" clearly needs refining (I knew this from the start, before I published any predictions) and I needed "feedback" from Nature to tell me what refinements I needed to make; that was the whole purpose of publishing specific and detailed Experimental Forecasts, which have now provided me with the clear variance information that I needed and sought at the outset. RJS, you totally misrepresent what chaos theory is, it is not the void before a discovery is made, chaos is very much the essence of life, the universe and everything (thank you Douglas Adams...), people working on chaotic systems, be it the weather or our very own body, do try to find patterns but, ultimately, not everything can be explained nor predicted (itself a rather repugnant notion if you think about it...) Or rather it can but then we enter the realm of religion and mysticism.... A highly recommend read would be this: http://www.amazon.co.uk/Impossibility-Limits-Science/dp/0099772116 Chaos theory is one of the great advances of science, before it, there was very much a sense that a very strict cause to effect paradygm existed (Newton famously said that if he knew the place of every particle in the universe, he would be able to predict the future), equally amongst religious leaders as scientists, now there is a far more fluid acceptance of uncertainty and indeed limits. Chaos theory ulimately was a step forward in freeing us of the dictatorship of God, of revelaed truth, of us being enslaved in some kind of deterministic universe, ruled by recurring patterns as if we were automatons without any concept of free-will.

You're going to wait for a long time TEITS...

All of this was like predicting a 4-4 game that actually ended 0-0 and now claiming that because both teams hit the posts a few times, there is something worth working on...

Thank you Mr Data and TEITS, a few precious nuggets of, shall we say, considered thoughts.